Stochastic approach to the estimation of infective force and malaria parasite incidence rate in infants from longitudinal data.
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Biomedical subjects
Publications and source records attributed to S K Ray.
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Mathematical models have great potentialities as regards their utility in different disciplines of medicine and health. This paper attempts to elucidate their uses in the field. A brief mention of some models has also been made. Mathematical models are useful in epidemiologic research, planning and evaluation of preventive and control programmes, clinical trials, measurement of health, cost-benefit analysis, diagnosis of patients and in maximizing effectiveness of operations aimed at attaining specified goals within existing resources.
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A 5 year sentinel surveillance (1989-93) of paralytic poliomyelitis and neonatal tetanus was undertaken at a rural Medical College Hospital at Burdwan, West Bengal. Poliomyelitis incidence showed an overall declining trend, which corroborated with the increased OPV coverage over the years. Incidence was more in males than females. Male:female ratio varied between 2.31:1 to 1.2:1. From 1989 to 1992, age-shift in poliomyelitis was observed when more cases were occurring above 1 year subjects. Cases were reported to be high during the months June to September every year. Incidence of neonatal tetanus (NNT) also showed a declining trend during the 5 year study period. A male preponderance was observed. NNT cases were more prevalent during the months between August and November. In an attempt for eradication of paralytic poliomyelitis and elimination of NNT, containment and other public health measures were undertaken a part of surveillance activities. The obstacles encountered in the surveillance system, as well as lacunae identified in undertaking appropriate health measures was discussed.
Pavement dwelling is likely to aggravate malnutrition among its residents due to extreme poverty, lack of dwelling and access to food and their exposure to polluted environment. Paucity of information about nutritional status of street children compared to that among urban slum dwellers, squatters or rural/tribal population is quite evident. The present study revealed the magnitude of Protein Energy Malnutrition (PEM) and few associated factors among a sample of 435 underfives belonging to pavement dweller families and selected randomly from clusters of such families, from each of the five geographical sectors of Calcutta city. Overall prevalence of PEM was found almost similar (about 70%) to that among other 'urban poor' children viz. slum dwellers etc., but about 16% of them were found severely undernourished (Grade III & V of IAP classification of PEM). About 35% and 70% of street dweller children had wasting and stunting respectively. Severe PEM (Grade III & IV) was more prevalent among 12-23 months old, girl child, those belonged to illiterate parents and housewife mothers rather than wage earners. It also did increase with increase of birth rate of decrease of birth interval.
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A cross-sectional study was conducted among the pregnant women in three administrative divisions of West Bengal to undertake a rapid assessment about the magnitude of the problem of anaemia in pregnancy and also to study care seeking behaviour for the same. The findings revealed that the occurrence of anaemia in these three divisions were very high to the extent of 86.39% and popularly known as 'Raktasunyata" or 'Raktalpata' to the common people. As per WHO guidelines (< 40% prevalence) it could be considered as public health problem of very high magnitude. Caregivers prescribed iron supplementation only in 70% of registered pregnant women when 100% coverage of pregnant women with IFA tablet is our national goal. Amongst this group 72.2% were partially consuming these tablets. Main reason for irregular or partial consumption was inability to purchase iron tablets (52.63%). Around 16% mothers were taking rest for 2 hours at daytime during pregnancy. Most important reasons for not consuming iron tablets were that iron was prescribed on the day of study (43.18%) and iron was not prescribed even though mothers were registered (36.23%). Focus group discussion highlighted some factors regarding improvement of the situation.
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