Environment. Can we defy nature's end?
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Biomedical subjects
Publications and source records attributed to S L Pimm.
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Tropical rainforests exhibit an extraordinarily high level of biological diversity. A new study shows that the patterns of seedling survival surrounding parent trees are responsible in large part for this amazing diversity.
An important new study shows that, in a food web, the strengths and arrangement of the interactions between species are determining factors of stability of the system.
Claims that there will be a massive loss of species as tropical forests are cleared are based on the relationship between habitat area and the number of species. Few studies calibrate extinction with habitat reduction. Critics raise doubts about this calibration, noting that there has been extensive clearing of the eastern North American forest, yet only 4 of its approximately 200 bird species have gone extinct. We analyze the distribution of bird species and the timing and extent of forest loss. The forest losses were not concurrent across the region. Based on the maximum extent of forest losses, our calculations predict fewer extinctions than the number observed. At most, there are 28 species of birds restricted to the region. Only these species would be at risk even if all the forests were cleared. Far from providing comfort to those who argue that the current rapid rate of tropical deforestation might cause fewer extinctions than often claimed, our results suggest that the losses may be worse. In contrast to eastern North America, small regions of tropical forest often hold hundreds of endemic bird species.
Contrary to the view taken by some, individual species matter: they are valuable for their contribution to the stability of the ecosystems they inhabit.
A major practical problem in conservation biology is to predict the survival times-"lifetimes"-for small populations under alternative proposed management regimes. Examples in the United States include the 'Alala (Hawaiian Crow; Corvus hawaiiensis) and Northern Spotted Owl (Strix occidentalis caurina). To guide such decisions, we analyze counts of all crow, owl, and hawk species in the most complete available data set: counts of bird breeding pairs on 14 European islands censused for 29-66 consecutive years. The data set yielded 129 records for analysis. We define the population ceiling as the highest number of breeding pairs observed from colonization to extinction, within a consecutive series of counts for a given species on a given island. The resulting distributions of population lifetimes as a function of population size prove to be highly skewed: most small populations disappear quickly, but a few last for a long time. Median (i.e., 50th percentile) lifetimes are calculated as only 1-5 yr for hawk, owl, and crow populations with ceilings of one or two breeding pairs. As expected if demographic accidents are the main cause of extinction for small populations, lifetimes rise by a factor of 3-4 for each additional pair up to three pairs. They rise more slowly thereafter. These observations suggest that lifetimes of the 'Alala (now reduced to about three pairs in the wild), and of populations of Northern Spotted Owl in the smallest forest fragments, will be short unless active management is implemented.
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We investigate the relationship between variation in reproductive potential among members of a family and genetic relatedness to determine which combinations favor natural selection for helping behavior. Conditions favoring helping are derived for the helper, the recipient, and the parents of these individuals. Our analysis reveals that a factor of general significance in the evolution of social organisms is variability in reproductive potential among offspring of a parent. To a limited extent this factor has already been appreciated because of its implicit role in "facultative altruism" and "parental manipulation", or suppression of offspring or sibs; however, the unifying role of variance per se and the ways by which it may act have not been widely appreciated. We show that suppression as a source of intra-brood variance is less powerful in the evolution of sociality than other, natural, sources of variance. The facts of natural history appear to be more consistent with a model utilizing natural variance than with a variance-enhancement model for most vertebrates. We present models for discrete and for overlapping generations. Fecundity of young potential helpers relative to adults is an important source of variance for the origin of helping.