Probability at the bedside: the knowing of chances or the chances of knowing?
Explore the source record for details and available documents.
Evidence-Based Medicine↗
Biomedical subjects
S N Goodman
Publications and source records attributed to S N Goodman.
Genetic epidemiology of mutated K-ras proto-oncogene, altered suppressor genes, and microsatellite instability in colorectal adenomas.
BACKGROUND: The genetic epidemiology of colorectal adenomas has not been studied prospectively in colonoscopy patients without cancer. AIMS: To study genetic alterations in colorectal adenomas and correlate these with patient demographics and adenoma characteristics. METHODS: Mutations and allelic deletions in 201 adenomas from 60 patients were compared with demographic features, adenoma characteristics, and family history. RESULTS: The most common alteration was K-ras proto-oncogene mutation, present in 35% of adenomas and 65% of patients. Patients 65 years of age and older had a decreased probability of K-ras mutations (26% versus 45%). Overexpression of p53 gene product was present in only 6% of adenomas but was more frequent in villous or tubulovillous adenomas (19% versus 3%). Allelic loss of chromosome 18q was present in only 2% of adenomas and was significantly less frequent than p53 overexpression. DNA replication errors (RER) were present in 7% of adenomas and 15% of patients, including multiple adenomas in four patients (two with hereditary non-polyposis colorectal cancer syndrome). Only 36% of RER positive adenomas had alteration of BAT-26 alleles, none had alteration of BAT-25, and only one (8%) had mutation in the transforming growth factor beta type II receptor gene. RER positive adenomas were more likely to have a K-ras mutation. In patients with multiple adenomas, there was concordance of p53 overexpression and RER but not of K-ras mutations. CONCLUSIONS: Genetic progression in colorectal adenomas is heterogeneous, involving factors related to patient age and the presence of RER for the occurrence of ras mutations, but different intraindividual characteristics for the occurrence of p53 alterations and RER.
Adenoma↗
Perceived value of providing peer reviewers with abstracts and preprints of related published and unpublished papers.
CONTEXT: Many journals provide peer reviewers with written instructions regarding review criteria, such as the originality of results, but little research has been done to investigate ways to improve or facilitate the peer review task. OBJECTIVE: To assess the value that peer reviewers place on receipt of supplemental materials (eg, abstracts of related papers and preprints of related unpublished manuscripts). DESIGN: Questionnaire survey sent to all 733 peer reviewers recruited by the Journal of the National Cancer Institute to review 356 manuscripts consecutively sent out for review from February 24, 1997, through January 16, 1998. The inclusion of supplemental materials with manuscript review packages was optional. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: The peer reviewers' assessment of the actual or potential usefulness of supplemental materials on the performance of peer review. RESULTS: A total of 481 (66%) of 733 questionnaires were returned. Of the 471 respondents' questionnaires that could be used, 217 (46%) indicated that they received abstracts, and 44 (10%) of 458 respondents indicated that they received preprints. Higher proportions of peer reviewers who received supplemental materials than those who had not received them felt that they were (or would be) useful to them when reviewing the manuscript (63% [95% confidence interval (CI), 57%-69%] vs 45% [95% CI, 38%-52%]; P<.001) and to the peer review process in general (80% [95% CI, 75%-85%] vs 64% [95% CI, 58%-70%]; P<.001). CONCLUSION: The majority of respondents indicated that supplemental materials helped (or would have helped) them evaluate manuscripts and valued them more highly when they actually received them.
Abstracting and Indexing↗
Multiple comparisons, explained.
Explore the source record for details and available documents.
Data Interpretation, Statistical↗
Statistical reviewing policies of medical journals: caveat lector?
OBJECTIVE: To describe the current policies regarding statistical review of clinical research in biomedical journals. DESIGN: Cross-sectional survey. PARTICIPANTS: Editors of biomedical journals that publish original clinical research. MEASUREMENTS: General policies on statistical review, types of persons used for statistical reviewing, compensation of statistical reviewers, percentage of articles subject to such review, percentage of time statistical review makes an important difference, journal circulation, and selectivity. MAIN RESULTS: Of 171 journals, 114 (67%) responded to the survey. About one third of journals had policies that guaranteed statistical review for all accepted manuscripts. In approximately half of the journals, articles were sent for statistical review at the discretion of the editor. There was some evidence that statistical review policies differed between journals of different circulation size. In journals in the top quartile of circulation (> 25,000) the probability of definitely having a statistical review before an acceptance decision was 52%, but it was only 27% in journals in the lower three quartiles (p = .09). The probability of a statistical consultant on staff ranged from 31% in the bottom quarter, to 58% in the middle two, to 82% in the highest quarter (p < .001). Editors judged that statistical review resulted in an important change in a manuscript about half of the time. CONCLUSIONS: Except in the largest circulation medical journals, the probability of formal methodologic review of original clinical research is fairly low. As readers and researchers depend on the journals to assess the validity of the statistical methods and logic used in published reports, this is potentially a serious problem. This situation may exist because the cost of such statistical review can be considerable, and because finding appropriate reviewers can be difficult. It may also exist partly because editors or publishers may not regard such review as important. The professions of medical publishing, statistics, epidemiology, and other quantitative disciplines should work together to address this problem.
Cross-Sectional Studies↗
CD34 augmentation improves allogeneic T cell-depleted bone marrow engraftment.
T cell depletion (TCD) performed by elutriation has decreased the incidence of acute and chronic graft-versus-host disease (GvHD) following bone marrow transplantation (BMT). However, as with all forms of TCD, patients may experience graft failure (10%), delayed engraftment, and mixed chimerism. Because 66%-75% of the CD34+ cells coseparate with the small lymphocytes, which are removed by elutriation, we designed a phase I trial in HLA-identical siblings to determine if the readdition of these previously lost small CD34+ cells would improve elutriation's engraftment kinetics. CD34+ cells were isolated from the small cell fraction of 10 consecutive donor grafts and infused into the recipients along with the TCD graft. The positively selected product had a mean T cell content of 1.2 x 10(5)/kg and was 80% CD34+, doubling the CD34+ content of the graft. All patients engrafted promptly with a median time to 500 neutrophils/mm3, untransfused 50,000 platelets/mm3, and discharge from the hospital of 19 (range 10-25), 24 (14-52), and 24 (18-29) days, respectively. Acute GvHD occurred in 2 patients, and no patient had chronic GvHD. Augmenting stem cell dose may be an efficient and safe alternative for overcoming TCD-associated delayed engraftment and graft failure, rather than increasing immunosuppression.
Adult↗
CD44 expression in the stromal matrix of colorectal cancer: association with prognosis.
CD44, a cell hyaluronate receptor, is implicated in the metastatic behavior of some cancer cells. This study analyzed CD44 expression in topographic tissue sites of colorectal cancers to determine its association with patient survival and clinicopathological characteristics. Immunohistochemical localization of the core CD44 and the v6 splice variant domains was examined by use of paraffin-fixed sections from 133 stage II or III colorectal cancers that previously had been evaluated for other diagnostic markers. Expression in malignant epithelium, stromal matrix, and stromal cells was compared to patient survival by univariate, multivariate, and bootstrap (reproducibility) analysis. Core CD44 staining was present in the malignant epithelium of 85% of tumors, the stromal matrix of 90%, and the stromal cells of 98%. The v6 splice variant domain was present in the epithelium of 77% of tumors but was less frequent in the stromal matrix (12%; P < 0.001) and stromal cells (17%; P < 0.001). Absence of core CD44 immunoreactivity in the stromal matrix was associated with increased death rate (hazard ratio, 2.4; 95% confidence interval, 1.2-4.8; P = 0.02), making this one of the most significant adverse prognostic variables, along with an age of 60 years or older, poor differentiation of the cancer, extramural venous invasion, chromosome 18q allelic loss, and nonwhite race. This study shows that core CD44 and v6 splice variant antigens are differentially expressed in the epithelium and stroma of colorectal cancers. A model that includes core CD44 immunoreactivity in stromal matrix along with other prognostic factors may improve identification of high-risk and low-risk patients.
Adult↗
Tumor-suppressive pathways in pancreatic carcinoma.
During tumorigenesis, positive selection is exerted upon those tumor cells that alter rate-limiting regulatory pathways. A corollary of this principle is that mutation of one gene abrogates the need for alteration of another gene in the same pathway and also that the coexistence in a single tumor of mutations in different genes implies their involvement in distinct tumor-suppressive pathways. We studied 42 pancreatic adenocarcinomas for genetic alterations in the K-ras oncogene and the p16, p53, and DPC4 tumor suppressor genes. All of them had the K-ras gene mutated. Thirty-eight % of the tumors had four altered genes, another 38% had three altered genes, 15% had two altered genes, and 8% of the tumors had one altered gene. Interestingly, we noted a high concordance of DPC4 and p16 inactivations (P = 0.007), suggesting that the genetic inactivation of p16 increases the selective advantage of subsequent mutation in DPC4. No statistically significant association was identified between the alteration of these cancer genes and pathological or clinical parameters. This type of multigenic analysis in human tumors may serve to substantiate experimental tumor models and thus increase our understanding of the truly physiologically relevant tumor-suppressive pathways that are abrogated during human tumorigenesis.
Adenocarcinoma↗
p53 mutation and locoregional treatment failure in head and neck squamous cell carcinoma.
BACKGROUND: The p53 gene (also known as TP53) may be the most common genetic target involved in the malignant transformation of human cells. Direct sequence analysis has demonstrated that alteration of this gene occurs in approximately 45% of head and neck squamous cell carcinomas. The consequences of p53 mutations in these cancers with respect to tumor behavior and patient survival have not been rigorously determined. PURPOSE: We evaluated the implications of p53 mutations in relation to the control of locoregional disease and overall survival following radiation therapy. METHODS: Data from 110 consecutive patients with invasive disease who were treated with primary radiation therapy (given with curative intent) or with adjuvant radiation therapy (following complete surgical extirpation of gross disease) were included in the analysis. A 1.8-kilobase fragment of the p53 gene encompassing exons 5-9 was amplified from the DNA of stored (frozen) tumor specimens; the amplified DNA was cloned and sequenced by use of standard techniques. Overall survival and locoregional disease-free survival after the completion of radiation therapy were estimated by the Kaplan-Meier method; survival comparisons were made by use of the logrank test or proportional hazards regression models. Reported P values are two-sided. RESULTS: Fortyeight (44%) of the 110 tumors had cells bearing p53 mutations. The risk of locoregional recurrence following either primary or adjuvant radiation therapy was significantly greater (i.e., the time to recurrence was shorter) for patients whose tumors contained mutant p53 genes (univariate model hazard ratio [HR] for p53 mutation versus wild-type = 2.2; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.2-4.1; P = .02). The presence of regional lymph node metastases (presence versus absence, HR = 2.0; 95% CI = 1.0-4.2; P = .05) and treatment type (primary radiation therapy versus surgery plus adjuvant radiation therapy, HR = 2.3; 95% CI = 1.2-4.3; P = .01) were also associated with greater risks of locoregional failure. The presence of p53 mutations and lymph node metastases and treatment with primary, as opposed to adjuvant, radiation therapy remained significant risk factors in multivariate regression analysis. No relationship was demonstrated between p53 status and overall survival (mutant versus wild-type, HR = 1.1; 95% CI = 0.6-2.1; P = .66); however, a relationship was shown for tumor stage and overall survival (stages III and IV [more advanced] versus stages I and II [less advanced], HR = 3.3; 95% CI = 1.0-10.8; P = .05). Mutation of the p53 gene was not associated with patient age, sex, tumor stage, primary tumor site, regional lymph node status, degree of tumor cell differentiation, or treatment method. CONCLUSIONS: Mutation of the p53 gene is associated with an increased risk of locoregional failure in patients with invasive head and neck squamous cell carcinoma who are treated with radiation therapy.
Carcinoma, Squamous Cell↗
Oral antibiotic treatment of right-sided staphylococcal endocarditis in injection drug users: prospective randomized comparison with parenteral therapy.
PURPOSE: To compare the efficacy and safety of inpatient oral antibiotic treatment (oral) versus standard parenteral antibiotic treatment (intravenous) for right-sided staphylococcal endocarditis in injection drug users. PATIENTS AND METHODS: In a prospective, randomized, non-blinded trial, febrile injection drug users were assigned to begin oral or intravenous (IV) treatment on admission, before blood culture results were available. Oral therapy consisted of ciprofloxacin and rifampin. Parenteral therapy was oxacillin or vancomycin, plus gentamicin for the first 5 days. Antibiotic dosing was adjusted for renal dysfunction. Administration of other antibacterial drugs was not permitted during the treatment or follow-up periods. Bacteremic subjects having right-sided staphylococcal endocarditis received 28 days of inpatient therapy with the assigned antibiotics. Test-of-cure blood cultures were obtained during inpatient observation 6 and 7 days after the completion of antibiotic therapy, and again at outpatient follow-up 1 month later. Criteria for treatment failure and for drug toxicity were prospectively defined. RESULTS: Of 573 injection drug users who were hospitalized because of a febrile illness and suspected right-sided staphylococcal endocarditis, 93 subjects (16.2%) had two or more sets of blood cultures positive for staphylococci; 85 of these bacteremic subjects (14.8%) satisfied diagnostic criteria for at least possible right-sided staphylococcal endocarditis (no other source of bacteremia was apparent) and entered the trial. Forty-four (oral, 19; IV, 25) of these 85 subjects completed inpatient treatment and evaluation including test-of-cure blood cultures. There were four treatment failures (oral, 1 [5.2%]; IV, 3 [12.0%]; not significant, Fisher's exact test). Drug toxicity was significantly more common in the parenterally treated group (oral, 3%; IV, 62%; P < 0.0001), consisting largely of oxacillin-associated increases in liver enzymes. CONCLUSIONS: For selected patients with right-sided staphylococcal endocarditis, oral ciprofloxacin plus rifampin is effective and is associated with less drug toxicity than is intravenous therapy.
Administration, Oral↗
Immunohistochemical evaluation of HER-2/neu expression in pancreatic adenocarcinoma and pancreatic intraepithelial neoplasms.
Although several morphological and molecular genetic studies have implicated various grades of pancreatic duct hyperplasia as precursor lesions to infiltrating pancreatic adenocarcinoma, the identity of preinvasive pancreatic neoplasms remains controversial. In the present study, the authors examined the expression of the epidermal growth factor receptor homologue, HER-2/neu (c-erbB-2), in pancreatic duct lesions adjacent to infiltrating pancreas cancers in a series of 19 cases of pancreatic duct adenocarcinoma. HER-2/neu expression was examined because it has been identified in a proportion of infiltrating pancreas cancers and because it may provide early neoplasms with a growth advantage over adjacent nonneoplastic epithelium. In normal pancreatic ducts and ductules, HER-2/neu expression was absent in all but one case. By contrast, HER-2/neu was expressed in 82% (P = .008 vs normal ) of ducts with flat mucinous hyperplasia, 86% (P = .03 vs normal) of ducts with papillary mucinous hyperplasia without atypia, 92% (P = .001 vs normal) of ducts with atypical papillary mucinous hyperplasia, and all specimens with carcinoma in situ. HER-2/neu expression was observed in 69% (P = .002 vs normal) of the moderately differentiated infiltrating carcinomas and none of the poorly differentiated infiltrating carcinomas. These data establish HER-2/neu as a potential mediator of growth factor-related signal transduction in pancreatic duct lesions, and provide additional support for the hypothesis that lesions formerly regarded as various grades of hyperplasia instead may represent intraepithelial neoplasms with the potential for subsequent invasion and metastasis.
Adenocarcinoma↗
Can caretakers of children with IDDM accurately measure small insulin doses and dose changes?
OBJECTIVE: To determine if caretakers of young children with IDDM could consistently reproduce small incremental measurements of insulin (U100). RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Fifteen caretakers of children with IDDM were asked to deliver repeated small doses of insulin, including doses separated by only 0.25 U of insulin. A sensitive gravimetric technique was used to determine the error in measurement of these low doses of insulin. Statistical analysis was used to evaluate accuracy and internal consistency of each caretaker at each dose. RESULTS: The means +/- SD at each dose level were as follows: 2.75 +/- 0.13 U at 2.5 U, 3.19 +/- 0.13 U at 3.0 U, 3.55 +/- 0.13 U at 3.25 U, and 3.70 +/- 0.11 U at 3.5 U. All doses were biased toward overadministration. There was as statistically significant difference in the dose delivered when the target doses were varied by only 0.25 U. The average differences and standard errors between 2.5 U and 3.0 U, 3.0 U and 3.25 U, and 3.25 U and 3.5 U were 0.44 +/- 0.20 U, 0.36 +/- 0.018 U, and 0.15 +/- 0.017 U, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Participants were not accurate in measuring small insulin doses, consistently overdrawing insulin by an average of 0.22 U. Caretakers are reasonably internally consistent with a given dose, since participants were able to measure statistically significant differences in 0.25 U dose changes. The error in insulin measurement does not vary with the intended dose level. Caretakers in the same family deliver insulin doses as variable from each other as they are from the population as a whole; however, when two or more individuals are responsible for one insulin dose in a child with IDDM, they have a combined variability that is approximately 40% greater than a single individual's variability.
Caregivers↗
Relationship between CD44 expression and cell proliferation in epithelium and stroma of colorectal neoplasms.
The cell surface glycoprotein CD44 is expressed primarily in the region of cell replication in the lower crypt epithelium of colorectal mucosa, and its expression is markedly increased in colorectal neoplasms, suggesting that expression is linked to proliferation. The association between CD44 expression and replication in individual cells was therefore analyzed by double-label immunohistochemistry for CD44 and the cell-cycle-dependent protein proliferating cell nuclear antigen (PCNA). Enhanced expression of CD44 in colorectal neoplasms occurred not only in epithelial cells but also in stromal cells, including lymphocytes and macrophages. On a topographical basis, the cellular localization of CD44 and PCNA were commonly different. Quantitatively, in all cell types studied (epithelial cells and stroma of colorectal mucosa, adenomas, and carcinomas) PCNA was present most frequently in cells lacking CD44. Statistical analysis by logistic regression models indicated that cells negative for CD44 had a higher probability of being positive for PCNA than did cells positive for CD44 (P < 0.001). These data suggest that the enhanced level of CD44 in colorectal neoplasms is asynchronous with cell replication and reflects mechanisms that act on nonproliferative stromal lymphocytes and other mononuclear cells as well as the epithelial cells.
Adult↗
Some practical improvements in the continual reassessment method for phase I studies.
The Continual Reassessment Method (CRM) is a Bayesian phase I design whose purpose is to estimate the maximum tolerated dose of a drug that will be used in subsequent phase II and III studies. Its acceptance has been hindered by the greater duration of CRM designs compared to standard methods, as well as by concerns with excessive experimentation at high dosage levels, and with more frequent and severe toxicity. This paper presents the results of a simulation study in which one assigns more than one subject at a time to each dose level, and each dose increase is limited to one level. We show that these modifications address all of the most serious criticisms of the CRM, reducing the duration of the trial by 50-67 per cent, reducing toxicity incidence by 20-35 per cent, and lowering toxicity severity. These are achieved with minimal effects on accuracy. Most important, based on our experience at our institution, such modifications make the CRM acceptable to clinical investigators.
Bayes Theorem↗
Association between cigarette smoking and mutation of the p53 gene in squamous-cell carcinoma of the head and neck.
BACKGROUND: Although epidemiologic studies have long associated tobacco and alcohol use with the development of squamous-cell carcinoma of the head and neck, the molecular targets of these carcinogens have yet to be identified. We performed a molecular analysis to determine the pattern of mutations in the p53 gene in neoplasms from patients with squamous-cell carcinoma of the head and neck and a history of tobacco or alcohol use. METHODS: Sequence analysis of the conserved regions of the p53 gene was performed in tumor samples from 129 patients with primary squamous-cell carcinoma of the head and neck. We then used statistical analysis to identify any patient characteristics associated with mutation of the p53 gene. RESULTS: We found p53 mutations in 42 percent of the patients (54 of 129). Fifty-eight percent of the patients who smoked cigarettes and used alcohol (37 of 64; 95 percent confidence interval, 45 to 70 percent), 33 percent of the patients who smoked but abstained from alcohol (13 of 39; 95 percent confidence interval, 19 to 50 percent), and 17 percent of the patients who neither smoked nor drank alcohol (4 of 24, 95 percent confidence interval, 5 to 37 percent) had p53 mutations (P = 0.001). (Two patients used alcohol but did not smoke, and neither had a p53 mutation.) Furthermore, 100 percent of the mutations in the patients who neither drank nor smoked occurred at sites containing cytidine phosphate guanosine dinucleotides (potentially representing endogenous mutations) within the p53 gene (5 of 5 mutations; 95 percent confidence interval, 48 to 100 percent), whereas only 23 percent of those in cigarette smokers consisted of such changes (12 of 53 mutations; 95 percent confidence interval, 12 to 36 percent; P = 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: In our study, a history of tobacco and alcohol use was associated with a high frequency of p53 mutations in patients with squamous-cell carcinoma of the head and neck. Preliminary evidence linked cigarette smoking to p53 mutations at nonendogenous mutation sites. Our findings suggest a role for tobacco in the molecular progression of squamous-cell carcinoma of the head and neck and support the epidemiologic evidence that abstinence from smoking is important to prevent head and neck cancer.
Base Composition↗
Molecular assessment of histopathological staging in squamous-cell carcinoma of the head and neck.
BACKGROUND: Surgical oncologists rely heavily on the histopathological assessment of surgical margins to ensure total excision of the tumor in patients with head and neck cancer. However, current techniques may not detect small numbers of cancer cells at the margins of resection or in cervical lymph nodes. METHODS: We used molecular techniques to determine whether clonal populations of infiltrating tumor cells harboring mutations of the p53 gene could be detected in histopathologically negative surgical margins and cervical lymph nodes of patients with squamous-cell carcinoma of the head and neck. RESULTS: We identified 25 patients with primary squamous-cell carcinoma of the head and neck containing a p53 mutation who appeared to have had complete tumor resection on the basis of a negative histopathological assessment. In 13 of these 25 patients, molecular analysis was positive for a p53 mutation in at least one tumor margin. In 5 of 13 patients with positive margins by this method (38 percent), the carcinoma has recurred locally, as compared with none of 12 patients with negative margins (P = 0.02 by the log-rank test). Furthermore, molecular analysis identified neoplastic cells in 6 of 28 lymph nodes (21 percent) that were initially negative by histopathological assessment. CONCLUSIONS: Among specimens initially believed to be negative by light microscopy, a substantial percentage of the surgical margins and lymph nodes from patients with squamous-cell carcinoma of the head and neck contained p53 mutations specific for the primary tumor. Patients with these positive margins appear to have a substantially increased risk of local recurrence. Molecular analysis of surgical margins and lymph nodes can augment standard histopathological assessment and may improve the prediction of local tumor recurrence.
Aged↗
Evaluation of p53 protein expression as a marker for long-term prognosis in colorectal carcinoma.
Mutation of the p53 gene is reported to be of prognostic importance in colorectal carcinomas. Immunohistochemical staining of the accumulated p53 gene product may be a simple alternative for p53 mutation analysis. Previous studies addressing the prognostic importance of p53 expression, however, yielded contradictory results. Therefore, we evaluated the importance of p53 expression as a marker for long-term prognosis in a well-characterised study population of 109 colorectal carcinomas. After antigen retrieval with target unmasking fluid (TUF), immunostaining of p53 was performed with both monoclonal antibody DO7 and polyclonal antibody CM1. Objective quantification of the p53 signal was assessed by a computerised image analyser. p53 expression was higher in non-mucinous tumours than in mucinous tumours (p53 labelling index = 30% and 17% respectively, P = 0.05), and in metastatic tumours compared with non-metastatic tumours (p53 labelling index = 37% and 22% respectively, P = 0.05). Other histopathological features were not related to p53 expression. In multivariate analysis, Dukes' stage (P = 0.02) and histological grade (P = 0.05) stood out as independent markers for prognosis. p53 expression was not an independent marker for prognosis. At present, p53 expression is not a useful marker for long-term prognosis. Further insight into the relationship between p53 mutations and p53 expression is needed to elucidate more precisely the clinical relevance of p53 alterations.
Adult↗
Pancreaticoduodenectomy for cancer of the head of the pancreas. 201 patients.
OBJECTIVE: This single-institution study examined the outcome after pancreaticoduodenectomy in patients with adenocarcinoma of the head of the pancreas. SUMMARY OF BACKGROUND DATA: In recent years, pancreaticoduodenectomy for adenocarcinoma of the head of the pancreas has been associated with decreased morbidity and mortality and, in some centers, 5-year survival rates in excess of 20%. METHODS: Two hundred one patients with pathologically verified adenocarcinoma of the head of the pancreas undergoing pancreaticoduodenectomy at The Johns Hopkins Hospital between 1970 and 1994 were analyzed (the last 100 resections were performed between March 1991 and April 1994). This is the largest single-institution experience reported to date. RESULTS: The overall postoperative in-hospital mortality rate was 5%, but has been 0.7% for the last 149 patients. The actuarial 5-year survival for all 201 patients was 21%, with a median survival of 15.5 months. There were 11 5-year survivors. Patients resected with negative margins (curative resections: n = 143) had an actuarial 5-year survival rate of 26%, with a median survival of 18 months, whereas those with positive margins (palliative resections; n = 58) fared significantly worse, with an actuarial 5-year survival rate of 8% and a median survival of 10 months (p < 0.0001). Survival has improved significantly from decade to decade (p < 0.002), with the 3-year actuarial survival of 14% in the 1970s, 21% in the 1980s, and 36% in the 1990s. Factors significantly favoring long-term survival by univariate analyses included tumor diameter < 3 cm, negative nodal status, diploid tumor DNA content, tumor S phase fraction < 18%, pylorus-preserving resection, < 800 mL intraoperative blood loss, < 2 units of blood transfused, negative resection margins, and use of postoperative adjuvant chemotherapy and radiation therapy. Multivariate analyses indicated the strongest predictors of long-term survival were diploid tumor DNA content, tumor diameter < 3 cm, negative nodal status, negative resection margins, and decade of resection. CONCLUSIONS: The survival of patients with pancreatic adenocarcinoma treated by pancreaticoduodenectomy is improving. Aspects of tumor biology, such as DNA content, tumor diameter, nodal status and margin status, are the strongest predictors of outcome.
Actuarial Analysis↗