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Biomedical subjects

S N Wood

Publications and source records attributed to S N Wood.

6 recordsLinked to original sources

Habitat structure and population persistence in an experimental community.

Understanding spatial population dynamics is fundamental for many questions in ecology and conservation. Many theoretical mechanisms have been proposed whereby spatial structure can promote population persistence, in particular for exploiter-victim systems (host-parasite/pathogen, predator-prey) whose interactions are inherently oscillatory and therefore prone to extinction of local populations. Experiments have confirmed that spatial structure can extend persistence, but it has rarely been possible to identify the specific mechanisms involved. Here we use a model-based approach to identify the effects of spatial population processes in experimental systems of bean plants (Phaseolus lunatus), herbivorous mites (Tetranychus urticae) and predatory mites (Phytoseiulus persimilis). On isolated plants, and in a spatially undivided experimental system of 90 plants, prey and predator populations collapsed; however, introducing habitat structure allowed long-term persistence. Using mechanistic models, we determine that spatial population structure did not contribute to persistence, and spatially explicit models are not needed. Rather, habitat structure reduced the success of predators at locating prey outbreaks, allowing between-plant asynchrony of local population cycles due to random colonization events.

Animals↗

Minimizing model fitting objectives that contain spurious local minima by bootstrap restarting.

Objective functions that arise when fitting nonlinear models often contain local minima that are of little significance except for their propensity to trap minimization algorithms. The standard methods for attempting to deal with this problem treat the objective function as fixed and employ stochastic minimization approaches in the hope of randomly jumping out of local minima. This article suggests a simple trick for performing such minimizations that can be employed in conjunction with most conventional nonstochastic fitting methods. The trick is to stochastically perturb the objective function by bootstrapping the data to be fit. Each bootstrap objective shares the large-scale structure of the original objective but has different small-scale structure. Minimizations of bootstrap objective functions are alternated with minimizations of the original objective function starting from the parameter values with which minimization of the previous bootstrap objective terminated. An example is presented, fitting a nonlinear population dynamic model to population dynamic data and including a comparison of the suggested method with simulated annealing. Convergence diagnostics are discussed.

Algorithms↗

Space, time and persistence of virulent pathogens.

Epidemiological theory predicts that pathogens of high virulence should not become endemic. We show, using an empirically based lattice map model, that a pathogen that is too virulent to persist if its host population is spatially well mixed, can persist if the host population is spatially distributed, because of internally generated complex spatial dynamics, provided that the area occupied by the host population is sufficiently large. The dynamics are not an artefact of spatial or temporal discretization. The results uncover a mechanism for the persistence of virulent pathogens, suggesting a means by which pathogens of high virulence could achieve sustained as well as short-term biological pest control.

Animals↗

Spline models of biological population dynamics: how to estimate mortality rates for stage structured populations with dimorphic life histories.

Nonparametric spline based models of stage structured population dynamics provide an effective way of decomposing observed population dynamics into birth and death rate processes. Currently available methodology only considers simple life histories in which all individuals pass through the same sequence of stages in the same way. This paper presents techniques for obtaining birth and death rates from structured population time series of organisms with complex life histories. For example, in many species males and females develop at the same rate in early stages, but differently in late stages. The models are motivated by the need to obtain birth and death rates for a pest subject to biocontrol by a parasitoid.

Aging↗

Obtaining birth and mortality patterns from structured population trajectories.

"A method is presented for unravelling the demographic equation for structured populations. A solution to the McKendrick-von Foerster equation is constructed using spline functions and this is fitted to stage-structured population data in such a way that the solution is smooth, positive, and does not imply negative death rates. The smoothness of the surface, and hence the complexity of the population model, is determined in a statistically optimum manner using cross validation. Time- and age-dependent death rates can be obtained as well as time-dependent birth rates. Confidence intervals are obtained for population size and death rates that give a 95% probability that the true population dynamics are within the intervals. Practical application of the method is demonstrated, and comparison made with three alternative methods."

Demography↗

Factors influencing occupational back pain in Bedfordshire.

This paper reports on a pilot study of occupational back pain among a sample of 68 men aged 16 to 65 years in the North Bedfordshire Health District, England. In a multidisciplinary appraoch, measurements of 126 variables for each case were made. It was found that driving high mileages was a significant factor affecting both occurrence and location of pain. Certain personality factors were also significant.

Adolescent↗