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Biomedical subjects

S Nee

Publications and source records attributed to S Nee.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
PubMed2001

Imperfect vaccines and the evolution of pathogen virulence.

Vaccines rarely provide full protection from disease. Nevertheless, partially effective (imperfect) vaccines may be used to protect both individuals and whole populations. We studied the potential impact of different types of imperfect vaccines on the evolution of pathogen virulence (induced host mortality) and the consequences for public health. Here we show that vaccines designed to reduce pathogen growth rate and/or toxicity diminish selection against virulent pathogens. The subsequent evolution leads to higher levels of intrinsic virulence and hence to more severe disease in unvaccinated individuals. This evolution can erode any population-wide benefits such that overall mortality rates are unaffected, or even increase, with the level of vaccination coverage. In contrast, infection-blocking vaccines induce no such effects, and can even select for lower virulence. These findings have policy implications for the development and use of vaccines that are not expected to provide full immunity, such as candidate vaccines for malaria.

Adaptation, Physiological↗
PubMed2001

Phylogenetics and speciation.

Species-level phylogenies derived from molecular data provide an indirect record of the speciation events that have led to extant species. This offers enormous potential for investigating the general causes and rates of speciation within clades. To make the most of this potential, we should ideally sample all the species in a higher group, such as a genus, ensure that those species reflect evolutionary entities within the group, and rule out the effects of other processes, such as extinction, as explanations for observed patterns. We discuss recent practical and theoretical advances in this area and outline how future work should benefit from incorporating data from genealogical and phylogeographical scales.

Journal Article↗
PubMed2001

Inferring speciation rates from phylogenies.

It is possible to estimate the rate of diversification of clades from phylogenies with a temporal dimension. First, I present several methods for constructing confidence intervals for the speciation rate under the simple assumption of a pure birth process. I discuss the relationships among these methods in the hope of clarifying some fundamental theory in this area. Their performances are compared in a simulation study and one is recommended for use as a result. A variety of other questions that may, in fact, be the questions of primary interest (e.g., Has the rate of cladogenesis been declining?) are then recast as biological variants of the purely statistical question-Is the birth process model appropriate for my data? Seen in this way, a preexisting arsenal of statistical techniques is opened up for use in this area: in particular, techniques developed for the analysis of Poisson processes and the analysis of survival data. These two approaches start from different representations of the data--the branch lengths in the tree--and I explicitly relate the two. Aiming for a synoptic account of useful theory in this area, I briefly discuss some important results from the analysis of two distinct birth-death processes: the one introduced into this area by Hey (1992) is refitted with some powerful statistical tools.

Animals↗
PubMed2000

Mutualism, parasitism and competition in the evolution of coviruses.

Coviruses are viruses with the property that their genetic information is divided up among two or more different viral particles. I model the evolution of coviruses using information on both viral virulence and the interactions between viruses and molecules that parasitize them: satellite viruses, satellite RNAs and defective interfering viruses. The model ultimately, and inevitably contains within it single-species dynamics as well as mutualistic, parasitic, cooperative and competitive relationships. The model shows that coexistence between coviruses and the self-sufficient viruses that spawned them is unlikely, in the sense that the quantitative conditions for coexistence are not easy to satisfy I also describe an abrupt transition from mutualistic two-species to single-species dynamics, showing a new sense in which questions such as 'Is a lichen one species or two?' can be given a definite answer.

Animals↗
PubMed1997

Extinction and the loss of evolutionary history.

Extinction episodes, such as the anthropogenic one currently under way, result in a pruned tree of life. But what fraction of the underlying evolutionary history survives when k of n species in a taxon are lost? This is relevant both to how species loss has translated into a loss of evolutionary history and to assigning conservation priorities. Here it is shown that approximately 80 percent of the underlying tree of life can survive even when approximately 95 percent of species are lost, and that algorithms that maximize the amount of evolutionary history preserved are not much better than choosing the survivors at random. Given the political, economic, and social realities constraining conservation biology, these findings may be helpful.

Animals↗
PubMed1997

Elucidating the population histories and transmission dynamics of papillomaviruses using phylogenetic trees.

Using gene genealogies constructed from gene sequence data, we show that both the mucosal and cutaneous papillomaviruses (PV)-supergroups A and B-appear to have been transmitted through susceptible populations faster than exponentially. The data and methods involved (1) examining the PV database for phylogenetic signal in an L1 open reading frame (ORF) fragment and an E1 ORF segment, (2) demonstrating that the same two fragments have evolved in a way consistent with a molecular clock, and (3) applying methods of phylogenetic tree analysis that test different scenarios for the dynamics of viral transmission within populations. The results indicate increases in PV populations of both supergroups A and B in the recent past. This form of the increases, which fit a null model of population growth with an exponent increasing in time, is compatible with the fact that human populations have grown at a faster than exponential rate, thus increasing the numbers of susceptible hosts for HPVs. There are, however, indications that the population of supergroup A has now stopped increasing in size.

Codon↗
PubMed1997

End-Epi: an application for inferring phylogenetic and population dynamical processes from molecular sequences.

MOTIVATION: Phylogenetic trees constructed from molecular sequences contain information about the evolutionary or population dynamical processes that created them. Here we describe a computer package (End-Epi) that uses graphical methods to allow researchers to make inferences about these processes from their data. Statistical analyses can be performed to test the consistency of the data with various competing hypotheses. AVAILABILITY: End-Epi can be obtained by WWW from http://evolve.zoo.ox.ac.uk/ and by anonymous FTP from ftp://evolve.zoo.ox.ac.uk/packages/End-Epi10.hqx. This file contains the compiled application, the manual and a test tree.

Algorithms↗
PubMed1996

Inferring the population history of an epidemic from a phylogenetic tree.

Phylogenetic or family trees reconstructed from a sample of individuals belonging to a population or species can be used to infer population dynamic history. A method for making such inferences involves visual inspection of the graphs of the numbers of lineages in the phylogeny plotted against the times when they occur. One transformation of the lineages axis often produces a linear lineages-through-time plot if the population has been growing exponentially. However, that transformation is known to fail under certain circumstances. We report a series of simulation studies designed to determine the conditions under which the transformation fails. As long as the sample represents less than 0.5% of individuals in the total population, the Type 1 error rate is acceptable. This means that studies of virus populations are likely not to suffer from transformation failure, so long as a random sample from the population is represented. When the transformation does fail, the resultant lineages-through-time plot is very similar to a two-stage epidemic process.

Computer Simulation↗
PubMed1996

The maintenance of strain structure in populations of recombining infectious agents.

Using mathematical models that combine population genetic and epidemiological processes, we resolve the paradox that many important pathogens appear to persist as discrete strains despite the constant exchange of genetic material. We show that dominant polymorphic determinants (that is, those that elicit the most effective immune responses) will be organized into nonoverlapping combinations as a result of selection by the host immune system, thereby defining a set of discrete independently transmitted strains. By analysing 222 isolates of Neisseria meningitidis, we show that two highly polymorphic epitopes of the outer membrane protein PorA exist in nonoverlapping combinations as predicted by this general framework. The model indicates that dominant polymorphic determinants will be in linkage disequilibrium, despite frequent genetic exchange, even though they may be encoded by several unlinked genes. This suggests that the detection of nonrandom associations between epitope regions can be employed as a novel strategem for identifying dominant polymorphic antigens.

Genes, Dominant↗
PubMed1996

Bi-De: an application for simulating phylogenetic processes.

Birth-Death (Bi-De) is an application for the Apple Macintosh which simulates the growth of phylogenetic trees using various models of lineage birth and death. The trees produced are intended to be analogous to those reconstructed from molecular sequence data. The user may define a constant birth rate and death rate or a function describing how these rates vary by time or population size. Instantaneous mass extinctions can also be simulated. The package allows the tree produced to be used as a template for the simulated evolution of molecular sequence data under a range of different transition models.

Algorithms↗
PubMed1995

Inferring population history from molecular phylogenies.

Variable molecular sequences sampled from a population can be used to infer its dynamic history. Graphical methods are developed and applied to real data, illustrating ways of navigating through hypothesis space with two landmarks for reference: constant population size and exponentially growing population size.

Genetics, Population↗
PubMed1995

Revealing the history of infectious disease epidemics through phylogenetic trees.

Phylogenetic trees play an increasing role in molecular epidemiology, where they have been used to understand the forces that shape patterns of viral sequence diversity. Phylogenetic trees can also be used to trace the dynamics of viral transmission within populations. Case studies document the worldwide spread of Human Immunodeficiency Virus type 1 (HIV-1) and hepatitis C virus (HCV). Despite similarities between these viruses, especially in their transmission routes, they are shown to have very different epidemiological histories. A possible reason for the difference is that HCV has coexisted longer with human populations.

Communicable Diseases↗
PubMed1995

Macroevolutionary inferences from primate phylogeny.

We apply new statistical methods to a recent estimate of the phylogeny of all living primate species to test a range of models of cladogenesis. Null models in which probabilities of speciation and extinction do not differ among contemporaneous lineages are not consistent with the phylogeny. We present evidence that the net rate of cladogenesis (speciation rate minus extinction rate) increased in the lineage leading to the Cercopithecidae (Old World monkeys), and that there have been further increases in some lineages within that family. Such increases suggest the occurrence of clade selection, although we have not identified the selected trait or traits. There is no evidence that the net rate of cladogenesis is a function either of how many primate lineages are already present or of time. Intriguingly, three other clades--Strepsirhini, Platyrrhini and Hominoidea--appear to have had very similar rates of clade growth, in spite of their great biological differences.

Animals↗
PubMed1995

Sex allocation and population structure in malaria and related parasitic protozoa.

Here we demonstrate how sex allocation theory, one of the best verified areas of metazoan evolutionary biology, can be successfully applied to microparasitic organisms, by relating parasite prevalence and sex ratio in the Haemosporina. Members of this taxon, which includes Plasmodium, are parasitic protozoa with obligate sexual cycles in which dioecious haploid gametes drawn from the peripheral blood of a vertebrate host fuse within a dipteran vector. Consequently mating takes place within a highly subdivided population, a condition known to promote local mate competition and inbreeding and hence the evolution of female-biased sex ratios. We used an epidemiological framework to investigate mating patterns and sex ratio evolution within natural populations of these parasites. This phenotypic approach compliments more conventional biochemical approaches to the population genetics of parasitic protozoa. Data are presented which support a theoretical relation between transmission-stage sex ratio and prevalence across parasite populations. These results are consistent with a large inter-population variation in genetic structure and argue against sweeping generalizations about the clonality or otherwise of populations of these parasitic protozoa.

Animals↗
PubMed1994

The reconstructed evolutionary process.

Phylogenies reconstructed from contemporary taxa do not contain information about lineages that have gone extinct. We derive probability models for such phylogenies, allowing real data to be compared with specified null models of evolution, and lineage birth and death rates to be estimated.

Animals↗
PubMed1994

Extinction rates can be estimated from molecular phylogenies.

Molecular phylogenies can be used to reject null models of the way we think evolution occurred, including patterns of lineage extinction. They can also be used to provide maximum likelihood estimates of parameters associated with lineage birth and death rates. We illustrate: (i) how molecular phylogenies provide information about the extent to which particular clades are likely to be under threat from extinction; (ii) how cursory analyses of molecular phylogenies can lead to incorrect conclusions about the evolutionary processes that have been at work; and (iii) how different evolutionary processes leave distinctive marks on the structure of reconstructed phylogenies.

Animals↗