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S P Ellner

Publications and source records attributed to S P Ellner.

7 recordsLinked to original sources

Habitat structure and population persistence in an experimental community.

Understanding spatial population dynamics is fundamental for many questions in ecology and conservation. Many theoretical mechanisms have been proposed whereby spatial structure can promote population persistence, in particular for exploiter-victim systems (host-parasite/pathogen, predator-prey) whose interactions are inherently oscillatory and therefore prone to extinction of local populations. Experiments have confirmed that spatial structure can extend persistence, but it has rarely been possible to identify the specific mechanisms involved. Here we use a model-based approach to identify the effects of spatial population processes in experimental systems of bean plants (Phaseolus lunatus), herbivorous mites (Tetranychus urticae) and predatory mites (Phytoseiulus persimilis). On isolated plants, and in a spatially undivided experimental system of 90 plants, prey and predator populations collapsed; however, introducing habitat structure allowed long-term persistence. Using mechanistic models, we determine that spatial population structure did not contribute to persistence, and spatially explicit models are not needed. Rather, habitat structure reduced the success of predators at locating prey outbreaks, allowing between-plant asynchrony of local population cycles due to random colonization events.

Animals↗

Pair approximation for lattice models with multiple interaction scales.

Pair approximation has frequently proved effective for deriving qualitative information about lattice-based stochastic spatial models for population, epidemic and evolutionary dynamics. Pair approximation is a moment closure method in which the mean-field description is supplemented by approximate equations for the frequencies of neighbor-site pairs of each possible type. A limitation of pair approximation relative to moment closure for continuous space models is that all modes of interaction between individuals (e.g., dispersal of offspring, competition, or disease transmission) are assumed to operate over a single spatial scale determined by the size of the interaction neighborhood. In this paper I present a multiscale pair approximation which allows different sized neighborhoods for each type of interaction. To illustrate and test the approximation I consider a spatial single-species logistic model in which offspring are dispersed across a birth neighborhood and established individuals have a death rate depending on the population density in a competition neighborhood, with one of these neighborhoods nested inside the other. Analysis of the steady-state equations yields several qualitative predictions that are confirmed by simulations of the model, and numerical solutions of the dynamic equations provide a close approximation to the transient behavior of the stochastic model on a large lattice. The multiscale pair approximation thus provides a useful intermediate between the standard pair approximation for a single interaction neighborhood, and a complete set of moment equations for more spatially detailed models.

Animals↗

Egg size evolution and energetic constraints on population dynamics.

We use population models that are based on dynamic energy budget models for individuals in order to study the evolution of offspring size and its relationship to the evolution of population dynamics. We show the existence of alternative evolutionarily stable strategies for offspring investment strategy resulting from a trade off between offspring number and time-to-maturity. The model predicts egg energy in Daphnia magna well, and suggests that the observed egg energy in D. magna is the result of selection for minimal egg investment constrained by minimum viable egg energy, combined with selection for a juvenile energy reserve. The selection for minimal egg size pushes populations toward chaotic dynamics. However, the minimum viable egg size combined with low efficiency of conversion of energy to new biomass is sufficient to keep population dynamics out of chaos.

Animals↗

Crossing the hopf bifurcation in a live predator-prey system.

Population biologists have long been interested in the oscillations in population size displayed by many organisms in the field and laboratory. A wide range of deterministic mathematical models predict that these fluctuations can be generated internally by nonlinear interactions among species and, if correct, would provide important insights for understanding and predicting the dynamics of interacting populations. We studied the dynamical behavior of a two-species aquatic laboratory community encompassing the interactions between a demographically structured herbivore population, a primary producer, and a mineral resource, yet still amenable to description and parameterization using a mathematical model. The qualitative dynamical behavior of our experimental system, that is, cycles, equilibria, and extinction, is highly predictable by a simple nonlinear model.

Animals↗

Cholera dynamics and El Niño-Southern Oscillation.

Analysis of a monthly 18-year cholera time series from Bangladesh shows that the temporal variability of cholera exhibits an interannual component at the dominant frequency of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Results from nonlinear time series analysis support a role for both ENSO and previous disease levels in the dynamics of cholera. Cholera patterns are linked to the previously described changes in the atmospheric circulation of south Asia and, consistent with these changes, to regional temperature anomalies.

Bangladesh↗

Testing for predator dependence in predator-prey dynamics: a non-parametric approach.

The functional response is a key element in all predator-prey interactions. Although functional responses are traditionally modelled as being a function of prey density only, evidence is accumulating that predator density also has an important effect. However, much of the evidence comes from artificial experimental arenas under conditions not necessarily representative of the natural system, and neglecting the temporal dynamics of the organism (in particular the effects of prey depletion on the estimated functional response). Here we present a method that removes these limitations by reconstructing the functional response non-parametrically from predator-prey time-series data. This method is applied to data on a protozoan predator-prey interaction, and we obtain significant evidence of predator dependence in the functional response. A crucial element in this analysis is to include time-lags in the prey and predator reproduction rates, and we show that these delays improve the fit of the model significantly. Finally, we compare the non-parametrically reconstructed functional response to parametric forms, and suggest that a modified version of the Hassell-Varley predator interference model provides a simple and flexible function for theoretical investigation and applied modelling.

Animals↗