Sanyi Tang | PubMed Health

PubMed2005

Integrated pest management models and their dynamical behaviour.

Two impulsive models of integrated pest management (IPM) strategies are proposed, one with fixed intervention times and the other with these unfixed. The first model allows natural enemies to survive but under some conditions may lead to extinction of the pest. We use a simple prey-dependent consumption model with fixed impulsive effects and show that there exists a globally stable pest-eradication periodic solution when the impulsive period is less than certain critical values. The effects of pest resistance to pesticides are also studied. The second model is constructed in the light of IPM practice such that when the pest population reaches the economic injury level (EIL), a combination of biological, cultural, and chemical tactics that reduce pests to tolerable levels is invoked. Using analytical methods, we show that there exists an orbitally asymptotically stable periodic solution with a maximum value no larger than the given Economic Threshold (ET). The complete expression for this periodic solution is given and the ET is evaluated for given parameters. We also show that in some cases control costs can be reduced by replacing IPM interventions at unfixed times with periodic interventions. Further, we show that small perturbations of the system do not affect the existence and stability of the periodic solution. Thus, we provide the first demonstration using mathematical models that an IPM strategy is more effective than classical control methods.

Agriculture↗

PubMed2004

State-dependent impulsive models of integrated pest management (IPM) strategies and their dynamic consequences.

A state-dependent impulsive model is proposed for integrated pest management (IPM). IPM involves combining biological, mechanical, and chemical tactics to reduce pest numbers to tolerable levels after a pest population has reached its economic threshold (ET). The complete expression of an orbitally asymptotically stable periodic solution to the model with a maximum value no larger than the given ET is presented, the existence of which implies that pests can be controlled at or below their ET levels. We also prove that there is no periodic solution with order larger than or equal to three, except for one special case, by using the properties of the LambertW function and Poincare map. Moreover, we show that the existence of an order two periodic solution implies the existence of an order one periodic solution. Various positive invariant sets and attractors of this impulsive semi-dynamical system are described and discussed. In particular, several horseshoe-like attractors, whose interiors can simultaneously contain stable order 1 periodic solutions and order 2 periodic solutions, are found and the interior structure of the horseshoe-like attractors is discussed. Finally, the largest invariant set and the sufficient conditions which guarantee the global orbital and asymptotic stability of the order 1 periodic solution in the meaningful domain for the system are given using the Lyapunov function. Our results show that, in theory, a pest can be controlled such that its population size is no larger than its ET by applying effects impulsively once, twice, or at most, a finite number of times, or according to a periodic regime. Moreover, our theoretical work suggests how IPM strategies could be used to alter the levels of the ET in the farmers' favour.

Animals↗

PubMed2003

The effect of seasonal harvesting on stage-structured population models.

In most models of population dynamics, increases in population due to birth are assumed to be time-independent, but many species reproduce only during a single period of the year. We propose an exploited single-species model with stage structure for the dynamics in a fish population for which births occur in a single pulse once per time period. Since birth pulse populations are often characterized with a discrete time dynamical system determined by its Poincaré map, we explore the consequences of harvest timing to equilibrium population sizes under seasonal dependence and obtain threshold conditions for their stability, and show that the timing of harvesting has a strong impact on the persistence of the fish population, on the volume of mature fish stock and on the maximum annual-sustainable yield. Moreover, our results imply that the population can sustain much higher harvest rates if the mature fish is removed as early in the season (after the birth pulse) as possible. Further, the effects of harvesting effort and harvest timing on the dynamical complexity are also investigated. Bifurcation diagrams are constructed with the birth rate (or harvesting effort or harvest timing) as the bifurcation parameter, and these are observed to display rich structure, including chaotic bands with periodic windows, pitch-fork and tangent bifurcations, non-unique dynamics (meaning that several attractors coexist) and attractor crisis. This suggests that birth pulse, in effect, provides a natural period or cyclicity that makes the dynamical behavior more complex.

Algorithms↗

PubMed2003

Multiple attractors in stage-structured population models with birth pulses.

In most models of population dynamics, increases in population due to birth are assumed to be time-independent, but many species reproduce only during a single period of the year. A single species stage-structured model with density-dependent maturation rate and birth pulse is formulated. Using the discrete dynamical system determined by its Poincaré map, we report a detailed study of the various dynamics, including (a) existence and stability of nonnegative equilibria, (b) nonunique dynamics, meaning that several attractors coexist, (c) basins of attraction (defined as the set of the initial conditions leading to a certain type of attractor), (d) supertransients, and (e) chaotic attractors. The occurrence of these complex dynamic behaviour is related to the fact that minor changes in parameter or initial values can strikingly change the dynamic behaviours of system. Further, it is shown that periodic birth pulse, in effect, provides a natural period or cyclicity that allows multiple oscillatory solutions in the continuous dynamical systems.

Animals↗

PubMed2002

Density-dependent birth rate, birth pulses and their population dynamic consequences.

In most models of population dynamics, increases in population due to birth are assumed to be time-independent, but many species reproduce only during a single period of the year. We propose a single-species model with stage structure for the dynamics in a wild animal population for which births occur in a single pulse once per time period. Using the discrete dynamical system determined by the stroboscopic map, we obtain an exact periodic solution of systems which are with Ricker functions or Beverton-Holt functions, and obtain the threshold conditions for their stability. Above this threshold, there is a characteristic sequence of bifurcations, leading to chaotic dynamics, which implies that the dynamical behaviors of the single species model with birth pulses are very complex, including small-amplitude annual oscillations, large-amplitude multi-annual cycles, and chaos. This suggests that birth pulse, in effect, provides a natural period or cyclicity that allows for a period-doubling route to chaos.

Animals↗