Patients' preferences need thinking through for the NHS.
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Humans↗
Biomedical subjects
Shah Ebrahim
Publications and source records attributed to Shah Ebrahim.
Ethics of clinical trials from bayesian perspective: medical decision making should use posteriors, not priors.
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Bayes Theorem↗
Is the association between parity and coronary heart disease due to biological effects of pregnancy or adverse lifestyle risk factors associated with child-rearing? Findings from the British Women's Heart and Health Study and the British Regional Heart Study.
BACKGROUND: Parity is associated with coronary heart disease (CHD) risk. In the present study, we assessed the associations between number of children and CHD in both women and men. METHODS AND RESULTS: A total of 4286 women and 4252 men aged 60 to 79 years from 24 British towns were studied. Number of children was positively associated with body mass index and waist-hip ratio in both sexes. In women but not in men, number of children was inversely associated with high-density lipoprotein cholesterol and was positively associated with triglycerides and diabetes. For both sexes, similar "J" shaped associations between number of children and CHD were observed, with the prevalence lowest among those with 2 children and increasing linearly with each additional child beyond 2. For those with at least 2 children, each additional child increased the age-adjusted odds of CHD by 30% (odds ratio, 1.30; 95% confidence interval, 1.17 to 1.44) for women and by 12% for men (odds ratio, 1.12; 95% confidence interval, 1.02 to 1.22). Adjustment for obesity and metabolic risk factors attenuated the associations between greater number of children and CHD in both sexes, although in women some association remained. CONCLUSIONS: Lifestyle risk factors associated with child-rearing lead to obesity and result in increased CHD in both sexes; biological responses of pregnancy may have additional adverse effects in women.
Aged↗
Shaving, coronary heart disease, and stroke: the Caerphilly Study.
The relation between frequency of shaving and all-cause and cardiovascular disease mortality, coronary heart disease, and stroke events was investigated in a cohort of 2,438 men aged 45-59 years. The one fifth (n = 521, 21.4%) of men who shaved less frequently than daily were shorter, were less likely to be married, had a lower frequency of orgasm, and were more likely to smoke, to have angina, and to work in manual occupations than other men. Over the 20-year follow-up period from 1979-1983 to December 31, 2000, 835 men (34.3%) died. Of those who shaved less frequently than daily, 45.1% died, as compared with 31.3% among those who shaved at least daily. Men who shaved less frequently had fully adjusted hazard ratios (adjusted for testosterone, markers of insulin resistance, social factors, lifestyle, and baseline coronary heart disease) of 1.24 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.03, 1.50) for all-cause mortality, 1.30 (95% CI: 0.99, 1.71) for cardiovascular disease mortality, 1.08 (95% CI: 0.61, 1.92) for lung cancer mortality, 1.16 (95% CI: 0.90, 1.48) for coronary heart disease events, and 1.68 (95% CI: 1.16, 2.44) for stroke events. The association between infrequent shaving and all-cause and cardiovascular disease mortality is probably due to confounding by smoking and social factors, but a small hormonal effect may exist. The relation with stroke events remains unexplained by smoking or social factors.
Cardiovascular Diseases↗
NHS waiting lists and evidence of national or local failure: analysis of health service data.
OBJECTIVES: To investigate the national distribution of prolonged waiting for elective day case and inpatient surgery, and to examine associations of prolonged waiting with markers of NHS capacity, activity in the independent sector, and need. SETTING: NHS hospital trusts in England. POPULATION: People waiting for elective treatment in the specialties of general surgery; ear, nose and throat surgery; ophthalmic surgery; and trauma and orthopaedic surgery. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Numbers of people waiting six months or longer (prolonged waiting). Characteristics of trusts with large numbers waiting six months or longer were examined by using logistic regression. RESULTS: The distribution of numbers of people waiting for day case or elective surgery in all the specialties examined was highly positively skewed. Between 52% and 83% of patients waiting longer than six months in the specialties studied were found in one quarter of trusts, which in turn contributed 23-45% of the national throughput specific to the specialty. In general, there was little evidence to show that capacity (measured by numbers of operating theatres, dedicated day case theatres, available beds, and bed occupancy rate) or independent sector activity were associated with prolonged waiting, although exceptions were noted for individual specialties. There was consistent evidence showing an increase in prolonged waiting, with increased numbers of anaesthetists across all specialties and with increased bed occupancy rates for ear, nose and throat surgery. Markers of greater need for health care, such as deprivation score and rate of limiting long term illness, were inversely associated with prolonged waiting. CONCLUSION: In most instances, substantial numbers of patients waiting unacceptably long periods for elective surgery were limited to a small number of hospitals. Little and inconsistent support was found for associations of prolonged waiting with markers of capacity, independent sector activity, or need in the surgical specialties examined.
Ambulatory Surgical Procedures↗
European guidelines on cardiovascular disease prevention in clinical practice. Third Joint Task Force of European and Other Societies on Cardiovascular Disease Prevention in Clinical Practice.
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Blood Pressure↗
Understanding long-standing illness among older people.
This paper describes a study of older people's interpretations of a survey question about long-standing illness, disability or infirmity. This and similar questions are frequently used in various studies and surveys that influence policy and planning. With population ageing and growing concern about the health of older people, we sought to examine the survey question's relevance to older people. Following-on from a cross-sectional survey of 999 people aged 65 and over in the UK, we explored their interpretations of the survey item by asking it in the context of in-depth interviews with 24 respondents. We found that few of our respondents subscribed to the constructs of long-standing illness, disability or infirmity that surveys often employ. Older people's descriptions of their health status in response to a "standard-issue" survey question are informed by their understandings of health itself as well as elements such as control, engagement with health service providers, time and ageing. This implies that questionnaire-based surveys may not only be unable to capture the meaning of chronic illness to older people, but also its prevalence. We conclude on a methodological note by reminding ourselves that answers to survey and in-depth interviews are narratives told about health status. As such, both represent many facets of social and cultural life, and are best assessed as "trustworthy" rather than "truthful".
Aged↗
Association between measures of morbidity and locomotor disability: diagnosis alone is not enough.
This study examines the relationship between different measures of morbidity and locomotor disability in early old age. Data from a community health survey of 858 people aged approximately 58 years living in the West of Scotland were examined for associations between morbidity and locomotor disability. The relationships between presence of chronic conditions, severity and pain from chronic conditions, reported symptoms, self-reported health and locomotor disability were examined using logistic regression. After adjusting for several measures of morbidity, sex and social class, frequency of pain from cardiovascular conditions (OR 5.49, 95%CI 2.64-11.39), frequency of pain from musculo-skeletal conditions (OR 2.79, 95% CI 1.76-4.44) and self-assessed health compared to other people the same age (OR 2.76, 95% CI 1.64-4.65) were the most important predictors of locomotor disability. Inclusion of frequency of pain greatly increased the strength of associations of chronic conditions with locomotor disability. Simple measures of morbidity may mask important associations between particular conditions and locomotor disability. In particular the findings suggest that for surveys of the correlates of locomotor disability, collateral information on the frequency of pain associated with chronic conditions and self-reported health relative to other people of the same age provides additional explanatory power.
Cardiovascular Diseases↗
Systematic review of the epidemiologic and trial evidence of an association between antidepressant medication and breast cancer.
Biologic studies have suggested that antidepressant use may increase breast cancer risk. We conducted a systematic review of trials and controlled epidemiologic studies to assess this association. Pooled data from 31 primary efficacy drug company trials of fluoxetine suggested no increased risk but the short duration of these trials may have been insufficient to detect an association. In one prospective cohort study antidepressant use was associated with breast cancer, but this study was conducted among women attending for breast screening, and only limited data on antidepressant use were available. In a second large prospective drugs screening study no association was found between either amitriptyline or imipramine and breast cancer. In a large well-conducted retrospective cohort study there was no association between antidepressant use and breast cancer. A second retrospective cohort study was flawed, with exposure in those who developed breast cancer being measured over a shorter time period than in those who remained disease free. Two of four case-control studies found no association between antidepressant use and breast cancer after control for a number of potential confounding factors. We conclude that epidemiologic evidence does not support an association between antidepressant use and breast cancer.
Antidepressive Agents↗
Association between leg length and offspring birthweight: partial explanation for the trans-generational association between birthweight and cardiovascular disease: findings from the British Women's Heart and Health Study.
Low birthweight individuals not only have increased risk of cardiovascular disease themselves, but cardiovascular disease risk is also increased in their parents. The mechanisms underlying these trans-generational associations are not fully understood. We hypothesise that, in part, they reflect the trans-generational effects of poor maternal environmental circumstances in early childhood. Adverse environmental factors acting early in the mother's life will not only influence her own predisposition to cardiovascular disease but will also result in adverse consequences - low birthweight and increased cardiovascular disease risk in later life - for her offspring. Adult leg length is a valid indicator of early life environmental circumstances, in particular of infant nutrition. If our hypothesis is correct, then adult leg length should be positively associated with offspring birthweight. In this study of 4286 randomly selected women aged 60-79 years from 23 towns across England, Scotland and Wales, the magnitude of the association between leg length and offspring birthweight was greater than the association between trunk length and offspring birthweight. After control for potential confounding factors, offspring birthweight increased by 89.8 g [95% confidence interval 66.1, 113.5 g] for each standard deviation increase in maternal leg length, and by 55.2 g [32.2, 78.1 g] for each standard deviation increase in maternal trunk length. The association between leg length and offspring birthweight was unaffected by adjustment for maternal birthweight, but the association between trunk length and offspring birthweight was attenuated to 38.0 g [1.0, 74.9 g]. These findings support the hypothesis that adverse early childhood environmental circumstances affect not only the vitality and health of the woman in later life but also the birthweight of her offspring, and suggest that the trans-generational association between birthweight and cardiovascular disease is in part explained by early childhood maternal environmental circumstances.
Aged↗
Long-standing and limiting long-standing illness in older people: associations with chronic diseases, psychosocial and environmental factors.
OBJECTIVE: to examine the associations between domains of chronic diseases, social, psychological and environmental factors and long-standing and limiting long-standing illness among older people. DESIGN: cross sectional survey. SETTING: national sample living in private households. SUBJECTS: 999 adults aged 65 years and over, mean age 73.2 years. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: self-reports of long-standing illness and limiting long-standing illness. RESULTS: the prevalence of long-standing illness was 61.8% (95% CI 58.8, 64.9) and that for limiting long-standing illness was 40.0 (95% CI 38.0, 43.0). Strong associations between long-standing illness and circulatory disease, odds ratio: 2.23 (95% CI 1.63, 3.05) and musculoskeletal disorders, odds ratio: 3.21 (95% CI 2.35, 4.39) were found. In addition associations with other domains were observed. For example, feelings of vulnerability, odds ratio: 1.79 (95% CI, 1.28, 2.51) from the psychological domain and, having close relatives living close by, odds ratio: 1.52 (95% CI 1.11, 2.09) from the social domain. CONCLUSION: the importance of considering a wide range of domains of human experience in the causation of limitations in society is emphasised. The currently dominant disease oriented view is insufficient to explain people's reported long-standing illness and limiting long-standing illness.
Activities of Daily Living↗
Disability-free life expectancy of elderly people in a population undergoing demographic and epidemiologic transition.
BACKGROUND: the major purpose of health and social policy in old age is to increase quality of life of elderly people. In many demographically developing countries, life expectancy is increasing very rapidly, but little information is available on survival free of disability. OBJECTIVES: to determine prevalence and severity of disability among the elderly population and to compare disability-free life expectancy and self-care life expectancy among different age groups and between men and women. DESIGN: a cross-sectional multi-stage random sample survey and routine life tables for Thailand. SETTING: national population of Thailand. SUBJECTS: 4,048 elderly subjects aged 60+ years. RESULTS: prevalence rates (95% CI) of long-term disability and dependency in self-care activities of daily living were 19% (95% CI 17.8, 20.2) and 6.9% (6.1, 7.7) respectively. Rates of disabilities increased with age and women were more disabled than men. The life expectancy and disability-free life expectancy at age 60 for men were 20.3 years and 16.4 years, and for women were 23.9 years and 18.2 years respectively. Self-care life expectancies at age 60, calculated from the prevalence of needing help with basic self-care activities, were 18.6 years and 21.3 years for men and women respectively. Women spent proportionately more of their longer life expectancy in a disabled state than men. Men and women can, respectively, expect that 19% and 24% of their life expectancy at age 60 will be spent in a disabled state, but may expect only about 10% of their life expectancy to be spent unable to manage basic self-care activities of daily living. CONCLUSION: long-term disability is common in old age, affecting a quarter of people over 60 years. However, self-care problems are much less common and suggest that the social and health care consequences of demographic transitions are over-estimated by use of simple questions about limiting long-standing disability. Self-care life expectancy provides a useful monitoring tool for censuses and national disability surveys.
Age Factors↗
Relative efficacy of differential methods of dietary advice: a systematic review.
BACKGROUND: Dietary advice to lower blood cholesterol may be given by a variety of means. The relative efficacy of the different methods is unknown. OBJECTIVE: The objective was to assess the effects of dietary advice given by dietitians compared with advice from other health professionals, or self-help resources, in reducing blood cholesterol in adults. DESIGN: We performed a systematic review, identifying potential studies by searching the electronic databases of the Cochrane Library, MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL, Human Nutrition, Science Citation Index, and Social Sciences Citation Index. We also hand-searched relevant conference proceedings, reference lists in trial reports, and review articles. Finally, we contacted experts in the field. The selection criteria included randomized trials of dietary advice given by dietitians compared with advice given by other health professionals or self-help resources. The main outcome was difference in blood cholesterol between the dietitian group compared with other intervention groups. Inclusion decisions and data extraction were duplicated. RESULTS: Eleven studies with 12 comparisons met the inclusion criteria. Four studies compared dietitians with doctors, 7 with self-help resources, and 1 with nurses. Participants receiving advice from dietitians experienced a greater reduction in blood total cholesterol than those receiving advice from doctors (-0.25 mmol/L, 95% CI -0.37, -0.12 mmol/L). There was no statistically significant difference in change in blood cholesterol between dietitians and self-help resources (-0.10 mmol/L, 95% CI -0.22, 0.03 mmol/L). CONCLUSIONS: Dietitians appeared to be better than doctors at lowering blood cholesterol in the short to medium term, though the difference was small (about 4%), but there was no evidence that they were better than self-help resources or nurses.
Cholesterol↗
'Mendelian randomization': can genetic epidemiology contribute to understanding environmental determinants of disease?
Associations between modifiable exposures and disease seen in observational epidemiology are sometimes confounded and thus misleading, despite our best efforts to improve the design and analysis of studies. Mendelian randomization-the random assortment of genes from parents to offspring that occurs during gamete formation and conception-provides one method for assessing the causal nature of some environmental exposures. The association between a disease and a polymorphism that mimics the biological link between a proposed exposure and disease is not generally susceptible to the reverse causation or confounding that may distort interpretations of conventional observational studies. Several examples where the phenotypic effects of polymorphisms are well documented provide encouraging evidence of the explanatory power of Mendelian randomization and are described. The limitations of the approach include confounding by polymorphisms in linkage disequilibrium with the polymorphism under study, that polymorphisms may have several phenotypic effects associated with disease, the lack of suitable polymorphisms for studying modifiable exposures of interest, and canalization-the buffering of the effects of genetic variation during development. Nevertheless, Mendelian randomization provides new opportunities to test causality and demonstrates how investment in the human genome project may contribute to understanding and preventing the adverse effects on human health of modifiable exposures.
Animals↗
The lessons of history.
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Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome↗
Smoking and ill health: does lay epidemiology explain the failure of smoking cessation programs among deprived populations?
The resistance of disadvantaged groups to anti-smoking advice is remarkable. In relation to the study of differing cultures, there is a long-standing academic tradition assuming that behavior that may otherwise be difficult to understand is indeed rational within particular cultural contexts. Persistent smoking among the most deprived members of society may represent a rational response to their life chances informed by a lay epidemiology. Health promotion initiatives designed to reduce smoking among members of these groups may continue to fail unless the general health and life chances of such individuals are first improved.
Attitude to Health↗
Life course influences on insulin resistance: findings from the British Women's Heart and Health Study.
OBJECTIVE: To assess the independent associations of a broad range of early life risk factors and adult obesity with adult insulin resistance. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: This was a cross-sectional study of 1,394 women, aged 60-79 years, from 23 British towns. RESULTS: There was a strong (independent of confounding factors, other early life factors, and adult waist-to-hip ratio) inverse association between birth weight and insulin resistance in women in the highest third of BMI (>28.77 kg/m2): -0.12 (95% CI -0.19 to -0.04) log homeostasis model assessment (HOMA) score per 1 SD birth weight, but no association between birth weight and insulin resistance in women in the two lowest thirds of BMI (P for interaction = 0.04). Offspring birth weight, own leg length, and childhood manual social class did not interact with adult obesity and were all independently inversely associated with insulin resistance: -0.05 (-0.09 to -0.01) log HOMA score per 1 SD offspring birth weight, -0.09 (-0.12 to -0.06) log HOMA score per 1 SD leg length, and a -0.07 (-0.14 to 0.00) difference in log HOMA score between manual and nonmanual childhood social class. Childhood manual social class and shorter leg length were both independently associated with adverse lipid profiles. BMI and waist-to-hip ratio were independently positively associated with insulin resistance and with all other components of the insulin resistance syndrome. CONCLUSIONS: Insulin resistance is an important risk factor for type 2 diabetes and coronary heart disease. Our results suggest that genetic factors, intrauterine environment, early childhood, and adult environmental factors are all relevant in determining adult insulin resistance.
Aged↗