Somatic likelihood tiering: an interpretable post-calling triage protocol for tumor-only whole-exome variant review.
Tumor-only whole-exome sequencing (WES) is used when matched normal tissue is unavailable, but one sample can produce thousands of variants. Somatic likelihood tiering (SLT) is an interpretable post-calling protocol that ranks Mutect2 calls into four review-priority tiers using population-frequency, germline-quality, cancer-knowledge, PureCN posterior, and clonal-hematopoiesis evidence. Layer 2 distinguishes common, rare-callable, and unevaluable gnomAD states; missing or unmatchable gnomAD evidence is not positive rarity evidence. On the SEQC2 HCC1395 benchmark, the callability-aware SLT-A row contained 101 calls, 78 truth variants, 77.2% PPV (95% Wilson confidence interval 68.1%-84.3%), and a Number Needed to Review (NNR) of 1.29 (1.19-1.47). The conservative SLT-C catchment retained 352 of 455 truth variants (77.4%, 73.3%-81.0%) and all tiers together retained 430 of 455 truth variants. SNV performance is the primary calibration frame: SLT-C retained 341 of 439 SNV truth variants, whereas indel results were exploratory because only 16 truth indels were available. Clinical cohorts are reported as recall and concordance versus partially dependent matched-normal Mutect2 references, not independent clinical sensitivity. Patient-level bootstrap intervals were principal: HdM-BLCA-1 SLT-A recall was 18.2% (14.0%-23.5%), and LUAD-TW SLT-A recall was 49.1% (26.6%-63.3%) among 32 evaluable patients. The HdM-BLCA-1 median SLT-A queue remained 1277 variants per patient, so SLT reduces first-pass candidate counts but does not measure review time or eliminate FFPE candidate-count burden. SLT provides an auditable tumor-only WES review queue, not a substitute for matched-normal sequencing, independent orthogonal validation, or definitive somatic classification.