Is electronic stability program effective on French roads?
This paper proposes an evaluation of the effectiveness of the electronic stability program (ESP) in terms of reduction of injury accidents in France. The method consists of 3 steps: The identification, in the French National injury accident census, of accident-involved cars for which the determination of whether or not the car was fitted with ESP is possible. A sampler of 136 cars involved in injury accidents occurred in 2000, 2001, 2002 and 2003 was then selected. But we had to restrict the analysis to only 588 Renalut Laguna's. The identification of accident situations for which we can determine whether or not ESP is pertinent ( for example ESP is pertinent for loss of control accidents whilst it is not for cars pulling out of a junction). The calculation, via a logistic regression, of the relative risk of being involved in an ESP-pertinent accident for ESP equipped cars versus unequipped cars, divided by the relative risk of being involved in a non-ESP-pertinent accident for ESP equipped cars versus unequipped cars. This relative risk is assumed to be the best estimator of ESP effectiveness. The arguments for such a method, effectiveness indicator and implicit hypothesis are presented and discussed in the paper. Based on a few assumptions, ESP is proved to be likely effective. Currently, the relative risk of being involved in an ESP-pertinent accident for ESP-equipped cars is lower (-44%, although not statistically significant) than for other cars.