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Biomedical subjects

Stephen Frankel

Publications and source records attributed to Stephen Frankel.

17 recordsLinked to original sources
PubMed2005

Breastfeeding and atherosclerosis: intima-media thickness and plaques at 65-year follow-up of the Boyd Orr cohort.

OBJECTIVES: The impact of breastfeeding in infancy on cardiovascular disease risk is uncertain. We related breastfeeding in infancy to atherosclerosis in adulthood. METHODS AND RESULTS: A historic cohort study based on a 65-year follow-up of the Carnegie (Boyd Orr) survey of diet and health in prewar Britain, 1937 to 1939. A total of 732 eligible cohort members living in or around Aberdeen, Bristol, Dundee, Wisbech, and London were invited for follow-up examinations in 2002, and 405 (55%) participated. In models controlling for age and sex, breastfeeding was inversely associated with common carotid intima-media thickness (IMT; difference -0.03 mm; 95% CI, -0.07 to 0.01), bifurcation IMT (difference -0.19 mm; 95% CI, -0.37 to -0.01), carotid plaque (odds ratio [OR], 0.52; 95% CI, 0.29 to 0.92), and femoral plaque (OR, 0.54; 95% CI, 0.26 to 1.12), compared with bottle-feeding. Controlling for socioeconomic variables in childhood and adulthood, smoking and alcohol made little difference to effect estimates. Controlling for factors potentially on the causal pathway (blood pressure, adiposity, cholesterol, insulin resistance, and C-reactive protein) made little difference to observed associations. CONCLUSIONS: Breastfeeding may be associated with a reduced risk of atherosclerosis in later life. Measurement error and power considerations limit the extent to which conclusions about the mechanisms underlying this relationship can be made.

Aged↗
PubMed2004

Childhood body mass index and later cancer risk: a 50-year follow-up of the Boyd Orr study.

Associations between childhood BMI and adult cancer risk were investigated in a historical cohort study based on the Carnegie ("Boyd Orr") Survey of Diet and Health in Pre-War Britain (1937-9). In 14 centres in England and Scotland, children had their height and weight measured. We included 2,347 individuals aged between 2 and 14 years 9 months at the time of measurement, who were traced through the National Health Service Central Register. Relative cancer risk (registration or death) was estimated in relation to age- and sex-specific BMI SD scores. We studied associations with (i) all cancers, (ii) cancer groups stratified according to their relationship to smoking and (iii) certain site-specific cancers. In the 50 years of follow-up, 188 men and 192 women developed cancer. There was a 9% increase (95% CI -3 to 22%) in risk of cancer in adulthood per SD increase in BMI measured in childhood. There was no evidence of confounding by childhood or adulthood socioeconomic position, other anthropometric variables, childhood energy intake or birth order. There was a 30% increase (95% CI 10-54%) in risk of smoking-related cancers per SD increase in childhood BMI. There was no relationship between BMI and cancers not related to smoking. Associations for all cancers and non-smoking-related cancers tended to be stronger in children who were measured at an older (>8 years) rather than a younger (< or =8 years) age. We conclude that childhood BMI is related to increased risk of cancer in later life, particularly smoking-related cancers.

Adolescent↗
PubMed2004

Hospital admissions, age, and death: retrospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: Ageing of the population brings the possibility of increased burdens for acute hospital services because of the marked increase in many common diseases with age. We aimed to examine the relation between age and use of acute services in hospitals in the period before death in a national sample of deaths in hospital. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort analysis of English hospital episode statistics database. SETTING: All NHS hospitals in England. DATA SET: All post-neonatal deaths occurring in English NHS hospitals during financial year 1999-2000, with episodes of care in the previous three years determined through matching on sex, date of birth, and postcode. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Total bed days, mean and median length of stay. RESULTS: 253 799 in-hospital deaths were identified, representing about 45% of all deaths occurring in 1999-2000. Patients who died in hospital spent a median of 23 days in hospital in the three years before death; the median rose with age up to 45 years, but was fairly stable for ages 45 and above. The number of admissions to NHS hospitals in the three years before death averaged 3.6; this peaked at 10.4 in patients aged 5-9 years and decreased with age to 2.2 in those aged 85 and over. CONCLUSIONS: The average number of bed days spent in hospital in the period before death does not increase with increasing age.

Adolescent↗
PubMed2004

Suicide risk in small areas in England and Wales, 1991-1993.

BACKGROUND: There is growing evidence that areas characterised by high levels of social fragmentation have higher suicide rates. Previous ecological studies have focused on relatively large geographic areas and/or examined associations in all age groups combined. METHODS: Negative binominal regression was used to assess age- and sex-specific suicide rate ratios for a range of census-derived indicators of the social, health and economic characteristics of small areas (mean population aged > or = 15: 4500) in England and Wales. RESULTS: Indicators of social fragmentation (e. g. proportion of people living alone or population mobility) were most consistently associated with suicide risk. For example, across quartiles of wards ranked according to increasing proportions of single-person households, age- and sex-adjusted suicide rate ratios were: 1.00, 1.05 (1.00, 1.11), 1.14 (1.08, 1.19) and 1.42 (1.36, 1.49). Associations were strongest in 15 to 44 and 45 to 64 year-olds. Associations with social fragmentation persisted after controlling for the effect of other area characteristics. CONCLUSIONS: Targeted mental health promotion and social policy initiatives to reduce area-health inequalities in suicide might usefully focus on areas with high levels of social fragmentation.

Adolescent↗
PubMed2004

Breastfeeding and cardiovascular mortality: the Boyd Orr cohort and a systematic review with meta-analysis.

AIMS: To investigate the association of breastfeeding with all-cause, cardiovascular, and ischaemic heart disease mortality. METHODS AND RESULTS: A long-term follow-up of 4999 children originally surveyed from 1937 to 1939 was undertaken (Boyd Orr cohort). Four thousand three hundred and seventy-nine subjects (88%) were traced in adulthood and 3555 (71%) had complete data on all covariates. The results were combined with a meta-analysis of the published literature. In the Boyd Orr study, there was little evidence that breastfeeding was associated with all-cause (hazard ratio: 1.04 [95% CI: 0.90-1.20]), cardiovascular (1.04 [0.83-1.30]), or ischaemic heart disease (1.02 [0.77-1.36]) mortality, compared with bottle-feeding. Meta-analyses of observational studies showed little evidence of an association of breastfeeding with all-cause (pooled rate ratio: 1.01 [95% CI: 0.91-1.13]) or cardiovascular (1.06 [0.94-1.20]) mortality. There was a moderate-to-high degree of between-study heterogeneity for the association between breastfeeding and ischaemic heart disease mortality (I2 value-indicating the degree of between-study variation attributable to heterogeneity-66%), and estimates were consistent with both an important beneficial or adverse effect of breastfeeding. CONCLUSION: There is little consistent evidence that breastfeeding influences subsequent all-cause or cardiovascular disease mortality. Results from other well-designed cohorts may clarify residual uncertainty.

Breast Feeding↗
PubMed2004

Parents' growth in childhood and the birth weight of their offspring.

BACKGROUND: A person's birth weight is inversely related to both their own and their parents' cardiovascular disease mortality risk, but mechanisms underlying such transgenerational associations are unclear. We investigated the influence of the childhood growth of the mother or father on the birth weight of their first-born offspring. METHODS: We used data from the long-term follow up (in 1997-1998) of 4999 children from 1352 families who participated in the Boyd Orr Survey of Diet and Health in Pre-War Britain (1937-1939). Complete information on childhood height, potential confounding variables, and the birth weight of first-born offspring was available for 637 subjects. RESULTS: Mother's height in childhood was positively associated with her offspring's birth weight. Leg length, but not trunk length, was the component of maternal height associated with offspring birth weight. For each unit increase in z-score for maternal childhood leg length, there was a 96-g (95% confidence interval = 6-186) increase in offspring birth weight after controlling for childhood socioeconomic variables and adult height. There were weaker positive associations of paternal height and leg length in childhood with offspring birth weight. Associations were not confounded by maternal birth weight or midgrandparental height. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings are consistent with the hypothesis that maternal growth during childhood influences offspring birth weight, independently of maternal birth weight, final attained height, or midgrandparental height. Because leg length is a sensitive marker of adverse nutritional and social exposures during childhood, these results suggest a key role for a mother's early environmental exposures as a determinant of her child's subsequent health.

Adult↗
PubMed2003

Screening for prostate cancer.

Epidemiologically, screening is justified by the importance of the disease and the lack of prospects for primary prevention, but evidence from natural history is unhelpful since men are more likely to die with, rather than from, prostate cancer. The available screening tests do not always detect men whose lesions could result in future morbidity or mortality. Evidence is limited for the benefits of treatment for localised cancers detected through screening, whereas the evidence for harm is clear. Observational evidence for the effect of population screening programmes is mixed, with no clear association between intensity of screening and reduced prostate cancer mortality. Screening for prostate cancer cannot be justified in low-risk populations, but the balance of benefit and harm will be more favourable after risk stratification. Prostate cancer screening can be justified only in research programmes designed to assess its effectiveness and help identify the groups who may benefit.

Biomarkers, Tumor↗
PubMed2003

NHS waiting lists and evidence of national or local failure: analysis of health service data.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate the national distribution of prolonged waiting for elective day case and inpatient surgery, and to examine associations of prolonged waiting with markers of NHS capacity, activity in the independent sector, and need. SETTING: NHS hospital trusts in England. POPULATION: People waiting for elective treatment in the specialties of general surgery; ear, nose and throat surgery; ophthalmic surgery; and trauma and orthopaedic surgery. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Numbers of people waiting six months or longer (prolonged waiting). Characteristics of trusts with large numbers waiting six months or longer were examined by using logistic regression. RESULTS: The distribution of numbers of people waiting for day case or elective surgery in all the specialties examined was highly positively skewed. Between 52% and 83% of patients waiting longer than six months in the specialties studied were found in one quarter of trusts, which in turn contributed 23-45% of the national throughput specific to the specialty. In general, there was little evidence to show that capacity (measured by numbers of operating theatres, dedicated day case theatres, available beds, and bed occupancy rate) or independent sector activity were associated with prolonged waiting, although exceptions were noted for individual specialties. There was consistent evidence showing an increase in prolonged waiting, with increased numbers of anaesthetists across all specialties and with increased bed occupancy rates for ear, nose and throat surgery. Markers of greater need for health care, such as deprivation score and rate of limiting long term illness, were inversely associated with prolonged waiting. CONCLUSION: In most instances, substantial numbers of patients waiting unacceptably long periods for elective surgery were limited to a small number of hospitals. Little and inconsistent support was found for associations of prolonged waiting with markers of capacity, independent sector activity, or need in the surgical specialties examined.

Ambulatory Surgical Procedures↗
PubMed2003

Why are suicide rates rising in young men but falling in the elderly?-- a time-series analysis of trends in England and Wales 1950-1998.

Suicide rates doubled in males aged <45 in England and Wales between 1950 and 1998, in contrast rates declined in older males and females of all ages. Explanations for these divergent trends are largely speculative, but social changes are likely to have played an important role. We undertook a time-series analysis using routinely available age- and sex-specific suicide, social, economic and health data, focussing on the two age groups in which trends have diverged most-25-34 and 60+ year olds. Between 1950 and 1998 there were unfavourable trends in many of the risk factors for suicide: rises in divorce, unemployment and substance misuse and declines in births and marriage. Whilst economic prosperity has increased, so too has income inequality. Trends in suicide risk factors were generally similar in both age-sex groups, although the rises in divorce and markers of substance misuse were most marked in 25-34 year olds and young males experienced the lowest rise in antidepressant prescribing. Statistical modelling indicates that no single factor can be identified as underlying recent trends. The factors most consistently associated with the rises in young male suicide are increases in divorce, declines in marriage and increases in income inequality. These changes have had little effect on suicide in young females. This may be because the drugs commonly used in overdose-their favoured method of suicide-have become less toxic or because they are less affected by the factors underlying the rise in male suicide. In older people declines in suicide were associated with increases in gross domestic product, the size of the female workforce, marriage and the prescribing of antidepressants. Recent population trends in suicide appear to be associated with by a range of social and health related factors. It is possible that some of the patterns observed are due to declining levels of social integration, but such effects do not appear to have adversely influenced patterns in older generations.

Adolescent↗
PubMed2003

Urban-rural differences in suicide trends in young adults: England and Wales, 1981-1998.

Suicide rates amongst young people, particularly males, have increased in many industrialised countries since the 1960s. There is evidence from some countries that the steepest rises have occurred in rural areas. We have investigated whether similar geographical differences in trends in suicide exist in England and Wales by examining patterns of suicide between 1981 and 1998 in relation to rurality. We used two complementary population-based indices of rurality: (1) population density and (2) population potential (a measure of geographic remoteness from large concentrations of population). We used the electoral ward (n=9264, median population aged 15-44: 1829) as the unit of analysis. To assess whether social and economic factors underlie rural-urban differences in trends we used negative binomial regression models to investigate changes in suicide rates between the years for which detailed national census data were available (1981 and 1991). Over the years studied, the most unfavourable trends in suicide in 15-44-year olds generally occurred in areas remote from the main centres of population; this effect was most marked in 15-24-year-old females. Observed patterns were not explained by changes in age- and sex-specific unemployment, socio-economic deprivation or social fragmentation. The mental health of young adults or other factors influencing suicide risk may have deteriorated more in rural than urban areas in recent years. Explanations for these trends require further investigation.

Adolescent↗
PubMed2003

Influence of cohort effects on patterns of suicide in England and Wales, 1950-1999.

BACKGROUND: Age- and gender-specific suicide rates in England and Wales have changed considerably since 1950. AIMS: To assess whether cohort effects underlie some of these changes. METHOD: Graphical displays to assess age-period-cohort effects on suicide for the period 1950-1999. RESULTS: Successive male birth cohorts born after 1940 carried with them, as they aged, a greater risk of suicide than their predecessors although this effect diminished for the 1975 and 1980 birth cohorts. There was less clear evidence of any increased risk of suicide in post-war female birth cohorts. CONCLUSIONS: Succeeding generations of males born in the post-war years have experienced increasing rates of suicide at all ages, an observation in keeping with patterns seen in other countries. If these trends continue into middle- and old-age they will lead to a great increase in overall male suicide rates.

Adolescent↗
PubMed2003

Smoking and ill health: does lay epidemiology explain the failure of smoking cessation programs among deprived populations?

The resistance of disadvantaged groups to anti-smoking advice is remarkable. In relation to the study of differing cultures, there is a long-standing academic tradition assuming that behavior that may otherwise be difficult to understand is indeed rational within particular cultural contexts. Persistent smoking among the most deprived members of society may represent a rational response to their life chances informed by a lay epidemiology. Health promotion initiatives designed to reduce smoking among members of these groups may continue to fail unless the general health and life chances of such individuals are first improved.

Attitude to Health↗
PubMed2002

Quality improvement report: Improving design and conduct of randomised trials by embedding them in qualitative research: ProtecT (prostate testing for cancer and treatment) study. Commentary: presenting unbiased information to patients can be difficult.

PROBLEM: Recruitment to randomised trials is often difficult, and many important trials are not mounted because recruitment is thought to be "impossible." DESIGN: Controversial ProtecT (prostate testing for cancer and treatment) trial embedded within qualitative research. BACKGROUND AND SETTING: Screening for prostate cancer is hotly debated, and evidence from trials about the effectiveness of treatments (surgery, radiotherapy, and monitoring) is lacking. Mounting a treatment trial is controversial because of past failures and concerns that differences in complications of treatment but not survival make randomisation unacceptable to patients and clinicians, particularly for a trial including monitoring. STRATEGY FOR CHANGE: In-depth interviews explored interpretation of study information. Audiotape recordings of recruitment appointments enabled scrutiny of content and presentation of study information by recruiters. Initial qualitative findings showed that recruiters had difficulty discussing equipoise and presenting treatments equally; they unknowingly used terminology that was misinterpreted by participants. Findings were used to determine changes to content and presentation of information. EFFECTS OF CHANGE: Changes to the order of presenting treatments encouraged emphasis on equivalence, misinterpreted terms were avoided, the non-radical arm was redefined, and randomisation and clinical equipoise were presented more convincingly. The randomisation rate increased from 40% to 70%, all treatments became acceptable, and the three arm trial became the preferred design. LESSONS LEARNT: Changes to information and presentation resulted in efficient recruitment acceptable to patients and clinicians. Embedding this controversial trial within qualitative research improved recruitment. Such methods probably have wider applicability and may enable even the most difficult evaluative questions to be tackled.

Humans↗