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Steve Gallivan

Publications and source records attributed to Steve Gallivan.

11 recordsLinked to original sources
PubMed2006

Quality assurance in congenital heart surgery.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to develop a graphical method of risk-stratified outcome analysis in paediatric cardiac surgery to provide a means of continuous, prospective performance monitoring and allow real-time detection of change in outcomes. METHODS: Risk-adjusted survival following open-heart surgery was prospectively measured over a 15-month period (n=460). Outcomes were charted using variable life-adjusted display (VLAD) charts, which indicate the cumulative difference in observed minus expected survival against the cumulative number of cases performed. Risk stratification was based on RACHS-1 (risk adjustment in congenital heart surgery) risk category and age at surgery, using our previously published risk model. The probability of deviation in performance from the expected baseline level was determined using a mathematical model. RESULTS: By the end of the series, observed survival (443/460=96.3%) exceeded that predicted by the risk model (434.5/460=94.5%), equivalent to a one-third reduction in expected mortality. Mathematical modelling indicated a 1-5% likelihood that this difference would have occurred by random variation alone, suggesting the outcomes represented genuine improvement. CONCLUSIONS: VLAD charts provide an effective, easily visualised display of surgical performance and can be applied to paediatric cardiac surgery. Early detection of change, whether improvement or deterioration, is important for ongoing quality assurance within a cardiac surgery programme.

Cardiopulmonary Bypass↗
PubMed2006

MADCAP: a graphical method for assessing risk scoring systems.

OBJECTIVE: We set out to develop a method for assessing the performance of clinical risk models over the spectrum of risks and to assess the performance of the EuroSCORE risk model used in cardiac surgery. METHODS: We developed a graphical method for assessing the performance of clinical risk models over the spectrum of risks. To illustrate the technique, we analysed retrospective data concerning 9268 patients that underwent cardiac surgery and for whom both the additive EuroSCORE prediction of risk of morality and vital status at 30 days were available. RESULTS: The graphical tool developed, called MADCAP (Mean Adjusted Deaths Compared Against Predictions), can be used to highlight systematic features of the performance of a clinical risk model. Its use in the current study indicates that the additive version of the EuroSCORE model seems to underestimate risk amongst low-risk cases (0% and 1%). Otherwise the score systematically favours risk avoiding behaviour as the risk model underestimates mortality for 2--6% prediction but not at 7% and above. CONCLUSION: The robustness of case-mix adjusted audit is dependent on the performance of the risk scoring system over the entire spectrum of risk. If we are to use risk adjustment of mortality rates when comparing outcomes obtained by different units or individual surgeons, it is essential that we continually review the performance of the risk adjustment method. The MADCAP method presented here provides a useful tool to this end.

Cardiac Surgical Procedures↗
PubMed2006

A stochastic model to evaluate options for antenatal genetic screening.

Haemoglobinopathies are a group of genetic disorders which are particularly prevalent among certain risk groups such as ethnic groups. Antenatal screening of potential haemoglobinopathy carriers allows early diagnosis for affected fetuses, leading to therapeutic intervention or termination. However, it has drawbacks such as screening costs and possible miscarriage as a result of fetal testing. This paper describes a model that allows the outcomes of a screening programme to be estimated for different risk groups. The model has been implemented as a computer package that can be used to inform decisions made by health care planners.

Female↗
PubMed2005

Assessing mortality rates from dubious data--when to stop doing statistics and start doing mathematics.

When trying to assess surgical outcomes at a particular centre, it is important to take account of case mix in terms of the types of operation performed. This is because those centres that undertake a disproportionately high number of complex operations might well be expected to have higher mortality rates than other centres whose case mix is more routine. From a statistical viewpoint, such case-mix adjustment is relatively straightforward if there are reliable risk estimates for different operation types. However this may not be the case and the risk estimates may have to be derived from several different sources which may not themselves be in agreement. Here, standard case-mix adjustment methods are no longer applicable and alternative analysis methods need to be used to make use of such unreliable risk estimates.

Cardiac Surgical Procedures↗
PubMed2005

Monitoring the effectiveness of anticoagulation control.

PURPOSE: To assess the quality of anticoagulation control at an out-patient clinic and to investigate patterns of deviation from therapeutic ranges. DESIGN/METHODOLOGY/APPROACH: Records for 36,157 clinic visits (2050 patients) were studied. The quality of anticoagulation control was assessed by comparing the measurement of pro-thrombin time recorded at each clinic visit, expressed as an international normalised ratio (INR), with the target therapeutic range for that patient, also recorded at the time of the clinic visit. Each INR measurement was classified according to the relevant patient's therapeutic range and the signed difference between the INR measurement and the centre of the therapeutic range was calculated. For each patient the percentage of their INR measurements that lay within their therapeutic range was calculated. FINDINGS: Of the measurements, 52.3 per cent were within the relevant therapeutic range. The proportion of individual patients' INR measurements within range varied greatly (median 52 per cent, inter-quartile range 40-65 per cent). The quality of anticoagulation control, as measured by the proportion of patients within their therapeutic range, changed little with patient follow-up time. ORIGINALITY/VALUE: The quality of anticoagulation control reported is comparable with that at other centres. The vast majority of patients spend periods outside the therapeutic range for their condition. There may be considerable room for improvement.

Ambulatory Care↗
PubMed2005

Mathematical methods to assist with hospital operation and planning.

Within health Operational Research, the use of 'computer package' methods such as simulation and system dynamics is becoming so prevalent that it feels somewhat old hat to use analytical methods to develop explicit mathematical formulae or even to explore the mathematical structure of problems. This paper will discuss the use of such 'back of the envelope' analysis illustrating its usefulness. It will be shown that not only does this approach yield considerable insight, but also that it can give rise to powerful and practical solution methods. Examples of this will be discussed in relation to issues such as bed needs estimation, admissions and facilities planning. The author is Director of the Clinical Operational Research Unit (CORU) which was established in 1983, receiving core funding from the UK Department of Health. The concept of a full time university-based research unit dedicated to applying expertise in Operational Research (OR) to problems in health care provides a relatively rare research resource. Yet, the scope for such research, applied to an increasing range of health care activity, is enormous. Issues such as treatment evaluation, performance measures, clinical governance, evidence based medicine and health service delivery are all amenable to OR. Further, OR often provides an immensely cost effective alternative to traditional methods of clinical research based on randomised controlled trials or large scale epidemiological studies. The nature of OR, and one of its main strengths, is that it encompasses a wide range of analytical and scientific methods. Mathematical modeling, statistics, computer-based methods, trial design and analysis all contribute to health OR and, under both of its Directors since 1983, a conscious effort has been made within CORU to foster a diversity of research methodologies. Particular emphasis is put on developing new mathematical methods and computer software. This is somewhat at odds with what seems to be a growing trend in health OR towards researchers specialising in just one or two areas of methodology; thus Tom does queueing theory, Dick does simulation and Harry does System Dynamics. Of course there are exceptions, but for whatever reason, the trend towards specialisation seems real. In this paper, benefits of a more diverse approach to health OR is advocated, particularly the use of 'back of envelope' mathematical methods as an alternative to the use of proprietary software packages. Three case studies are described to illustrate this approach.

Biomedical Research↗
PubMed2003

Analytical methods for calculating the capacity required to operate an effective booked admissions policy for elective inpatient services.

In the UK, hospitals are being encouraged to introduce booked admissions policies for elective inpatient services whereby patients are given a date for hospital admission months in advance rather than being put on a waiting list and then informed of their admission date at short notice. We address the question of what level of capacity is required to operate such a system if cancellations of booked elective patients are to be kept to a low level. Methods are presented for quantifying the day to day variation in bed demand due to emergency admissions, patient initiated cancellations and variable lengths of stay amongst patients.

Admitting Department, Hospital↗
PubMed2003

ARMADA--a computer model of the impact of environmental factors on health.

Environmental impact assessments are conducted on many developments as part of the planning process. There is currently wide interest in developing tools for assessing the impact on the health of the local population of proposed developments that will cause environmental changes. A computer model called ARMADA (Age Related Morbidity And Death Analysis) is described that provides a framework for investigating such health impacts. ARMADA generates estimates of age-related patterns of morbidity and mortality within the local population. These estimates incorporate the demographic features of the population in question and base-line information about the incidence of the disease classes being considered.

Age Factors↗
PubMed2002

Booked inpatient admissions and hospital capacity: mathematical modelling study.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate the variability of patients' length of stay in intensive care after cardiac surgery. To investigate potential interactions between such variability, booked admissions, and capacity requirements. DESIGN: Mathematical modelling study using routinely collected data. SETTING: A cardiac surgery department. SOURCE OF DATA: Hospital records of 7014 people entering intensive care after cardiac surgery. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Length of stay in intensive care; capacity requirements of an intensive care unit for a hypothetical booked admission system. RESULTS: Although the vast majority of patients (89.5%) had a length of stay in intensive care of < or = 48 hours, there was considerable overall variability and the distribution of stays has a lengthy tail. A mathematical model of the operation of a hypothetical booking system indicates that such variability has a considerable impact on intensive care capacity requirements, indicating that a high degree of reserve capacity is required to avoid high rates of operation cancellation because of unavailability of suitable postoperative care. CONCLUSION: Despite the considerable enthusiasm for booked admissions systems, queuing theory suggests that caution is required when considering such systems for inpatient admissions. Such systems may well result in frequent operational difficulties if there is a high degree of variability in length of stay and where reserve capacity is limited. Both of these are common in the NHS.

Admitting Department, Hospital↗
PubMed2002

Surgical performance measurement.

The need for effective surgical performance measurement has gained an increasingly high profile in recent years, particularly since events at Bristol Royal Infirmary, where apparent poor performance has prompted the UK Department of Health to instigate a major Public Inquiry. This paper describes issues that concern the measuring and monitoring of surgical performance, and methods that have been devised for judging a good surgeon from the less competent. The authors are a collaborative team composed of specialists in Cardiothoracic surgery and Operational Research analysts with experience of monitoring performance in cardiac surgery. This paper describes concrete examples from that knowledge base.

Clinical Competence↗