Biomedical subjects

Susan A Weston

Publications and source records attributed to Susan A Weston.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

PubMed2006

Systolic and diastolic heart failure in the community.

CONTEXT: The heart failure (HF) syndrome is heterogeneous. While it can be defined by ejection fraction (EF) and diastolic function, data on the characteristics of HF in the community are scarce, as most studies are retrospective, hospital-based, and rely on clinically indicated tests. Further, diastolic function is seldom systematically assessed based on standardized techniques. OBJECTIVE: To prospectively measure EF, diastolic function, and brain natriuretic peptide (BNP) in community residents with HF. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Echocardiographic measures of EF and diastolic function, measurement of blood levels of BNP, and 6-month mortality. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Olmsted County residents with incident or prevalent HF (inpatients or outpatients) between September 10, 2003, and October 27, 2005, were prospectively recruited to undergo assessment of EF and diastolic function by echocardiography and measurement of BNP. RESULTS: A total of 556 study participants underwent echocardiography at HF diagnosis. Preserved EF (> or =50%) was present in 308 (55%) and was associated with older age, female sex, and no history of myocardial infarction (all P<.001). Isolated diastolic dysfunction (diastolic dysfunction with preserved EF) was present in 242 (44%) patients. For patients with reduced EF, moderate or severe diastolic dysfunction was more common than when EF was preserved (odds ratio, 1.67; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.11-2.51; P = .01). Both low EF and diastolic dysfunction were independently related to higher levels of BNP. At 6 months, mortality was 16% for both preserved and reduced EF (age- and sex-adjusted hazard ratio, 0.85; 95% CI, 0.61-1.19; P = .33 for preserved vs reduced EF). CONCLUSIONS: In the community, more than half of patients with HF have preserved EF, and isolated diastolic dysfunction is present in more than 40% of cases. Ejection fraction and diastolic dysfunction are independently related to higher levels of BNP. Heart failure with preserved EF is associated with a high mortality rate, comparable to that of patients with reduced EF.

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PubMed2006

Redefinition of myocardial infarction: prospective evaluation in the community.

BACKGROUND: The 2000 European Society of Cardiology/American College of Cardiology definition for myocardial infarction (MI) combines ischemic symptoms, electrocardiographic changes, and troponin rather than creatine kinase levels. The use of troponins will increase the detection of MI by a magnitude to be quantified, and the clinical acceptance of the new definition is unknown. METHOD AND RESULTS: Subjects presenting to an Olmsted County facility with a troponin T value > or = 0.03 ng/mL between November 2002 and March 2005 were prospectively classified through the use of standardized MI criteria, relying on cardiac pain, Minnesota coding of the ECG, and troponin, creatine kinase, and its MB fraction measured simultaneously. Through the use of dynamic changes in troponin, 538 MIs were identified versus 327 with creatine kinase and 427 with only the MB fraction of creatine kinase. This represents a 74% (95% confidence interval [CI], 69% to 79%) increase above the number of MIs identified with creatine kinase and a 41% (95% CI, 37% to 46%) increase above the number identified with criteria including only its MB fraction. When relying on single values of troponin, increases in the number of MIs were always large but varied widely according to the threshold used for troponin. Cases meeting only troponin-based criteria were less likely to have electrocardiographic ST-segment elevation and had better survival than those identified with previous criteria. Clinician diagnoses mentioned MI in 42% (95% CI, 34% to 49%) of cases meeting only troponin-based criteria versus 74% (95% CI, 69% to 78%) for MIs meeting the previous criteria (P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The prospective application of the new criteria in the community results in a large increase in the number of MIs and a change in case mix. The clinical acceptance of the new criteria is incomplete, and studies that rely exclusively on dismissal diagnoses to assess MI rates may underestimate the burden of disease as presently defined.

Biomarkers↗

PubMed2006

Lipoprotein-associated phospholipase A2 and prognosis after myocardial infarction in the community.

OBJECTIVE: We evaluated the role of lipoprotein-associated phospholipase A2 (Lp-PLA2), an inflammatory biomarker, in defining risk after myocardial infarction (MI). METHODS AND RESULTS: Olmsted County, Minn, residents who experienced an MI meeting standardized criteria between 2003 and 2005 (n = 271) were prospectively identified and followed. Lp-PLA2 levels were measured at baseline and evaluated along with traditional risk indicators. Lp-PLA2 was modestly associated with total and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, smoking, and age (inversely) but not with MI characteristics or severity, comorbidities, C-reactive protein, or the time from symptom onset to blood sampling. During the first year of follow-up, 42 deaths occurred. The survival estimates (95% confidence intervals [CI]) at 1 year were 92% (86% to 98%), 85% (78% to 93%), and 74% (65% to 84%) in the lowest, middle, and upper Lp-PLA2 tertiles, respectively (P = 0.007). After adjustment for age and sex, the hazard ratios for death in the middle and upper Lp-PLA2 tertiles were 2.20 (95% CI: 0.88 to 5.54) and 4.93 (95% CI: 2.10 to 11.60), compared with the lowest tertile, respectively (P(trend) < 0.001). Further adjustment for other risk indicators resulted in even stronger associations. Lp-PLA2 also contributed to risk discrimination as indicated by the increases in the area under the receiver operating characteristic curves obtained in each of the models examined (all P < or = 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: Among community subjects presenting with MI, increased Lp-PLA2 levels measured early after MI are strongly and independently associated with mortality and provide incremental value in risk discrimination over traditional predictors.

1-Alkyl-2-acetylglycerophosphocholine Esterase↗

PubMed2006

Seasonality and daily weather conditions in relation to myocardial infarction and sudden cardiac death in Olmsted County, Minnesota, 1979 to 2002.

OBJECTIVES: We assessed the relationship of season and weather types with myocardial infarction (MI) and sudden cardiac death (SCD) in a geographically defined population, and tested the hypothesis that the increased risk in winter was related to weather. BACKGROUND: Winter peaks in coronary heart disease (CHD) have been documented. Yet, it is uncertain if seasonality exists for both incident events and deaths, and the role of weather conditions is not clear. METHODS: The daily occurrence of incident MI and SCD in Olmsted County was examined with data from the National Weather Service. Poisson regression models were used to assess the relative risks (RRs) associated with season and climatic variables. Subsequent analysis stratified SCD into those with and without antecedent CHD (unexpected SCD). RESULTS: Between 1979 and 2002, 2,676 MI and 2,066 SCD occurred. The age-, gender-, and year-adjusted RR of SCD, but not of MI, was increased in winter versus summer (1.17, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.03 to 1.32) and in low temperatures (1.20, 95% CI 1.07 to 1.35, for temperatures below 0 degrees C vs. 18 degrees C to 30 degrees C). These associations were stronger for unexpected SCD than for SCD with prior CHD (p < 0.05). After adjustment for all climatic variables, low temperature was associated with a large increase in the risk of unexpected SCD (RR = 1.38, 95% CI 1.10 to 1.73), while the association with winter declined (RR = 1.06, 95% CI 0.83 to 1.35). CONCLUSIONS: These data suggest that the winter peak in SCD can be accounted for by daily weather.

Adult↗

PubMed2006

Secular trends in deaths from cardiovascular diseases: a 25-year community study.

BACKGROUND: Although age-adjusted cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality has declined over the past decades, controversies remain about whether this trend was similar across locations of death and disease categories and about the existence of age and sex disparities. METHODS AND RESULTS: We examined CVD mortality trends in Olmsted County, Minnesota, between 1979 and 2003 using the categories defined by the American Heart Association, including coronary heart disease (CHD), non-CHD diseases of the heart, and noncardiac circulatory diseases. Data on demographics, cause, and location of death of all 6378 residents who died of CVD were analyzed. Although decreases in the age-adjusted rates occurred in all groups, the magnitude of the decline varied widely. Lesser annual declines were noted in out-of-hospital than in-hospital deaths (1.8% versus 4.8%; P<0.001), in older than in younger persons (1.5% at age > or =85 years versus 3.9% for those < or =74 years of age; P<0.001), and in women relative to men (2.5% versus 3.3%; P=0.007). Furthermore, although CHD showed a marked annual decrease (3.3%), more modest decrements were found for non-CHD diseases of the heart (2.1%) and noncardiac circulatory diseases (2.4%) (P=0.02 and P=0.04 for the comparison with CHD decline, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Over the past 25 years, CVD mortality declined markedly in the community, but there were large disparities in the magnitude of the decline, resulting in a shift in the distribution toward out-of-hospital and non-CHD deaths. Further reduction in CVD mortality will require strategies directed at elderly persons and women, in whom out-of-hospital rates have improved only minimally.

Age Factors↗

PubMed2006

Ventricular arrhythmias after acute myocardial infarction: a 20-year community study.

BACKGROUND: Although myocardial infarction (MI) severity is declining, the occurrence of ventricular arrhythmia (VA) after MI and its effect on outcome is unknown. This study was undertaken to examine the frequency and timing of VA and the effect of VA on mortality after MI. METHODS: Myocardial infarctions recorded between 1979 and 1998 were validated. Baseline characteristics, occurrence of VA, and survival were determined. Ventricular arrhythmias were categorized as primary ventricular fibrillation (VF), nonprimary VF, and ventricular tachycardia (VT). Logistic regression was used to analyze associations between VA and baseline characteristics. Temporal trends were assessed with the Mantel-Haenszel chi2. Survival was analyzed with the Kaplan-Meier method. Proportional hazards regression was used to examine the association between death and occurrence of VA. RESULTS: Among 2317 persons with incident MI, 7.5% experienced VA (3.6% nonprimary VF, 2.1% primary VF, 1.8% VT). Ventricular arrhythmia-associated factors were younger age, female sex, higher Killip class, ST elevation, and atrial fibrillation. Ventricular arrhythmias were associated with increased risk of death at 30 days. CONCLUSION: Ventricular arrhythmias after MI are relatively common, particularly among persons with more severe MI and no prior history of coronary disease. Over time, the incidence of VF declined, whereas VT did not change. Ventricular arrhythmia after MI was associated with a 6-fold increase in morality. Thus, identification of high-risk MI survivors and prevention of VA could markedly improve outcomes. Further studies are needed to determine the cause of the shift in distribution of VA subtype.

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PubMed2006

Ischemic stroke after heart failure: a community-based study.

BACKGROUND: Although studies have examined the incidence of stroke in heart failure (HF), their findings are inconsistent and difficult to interpret because of heterogeneity in study design and population. Although HF remains a highly fatal disease, the excess mortality imparted from stroke is unknown. METHODS: A random sample of cases of HF from 1979 to 1999 was identified and validated according to Framingham criteria. Strokes were identified by screening medical diagnoses and subsequent physician validation. Stroke risk in HF was compared with the risk in the general population with standardized morbidity ratios. Associations between selected characteristics and stroke were examined using proportional hazards regression. RESULTS: The study cohort included 630 persons with incident HF. During a median of 4.3 years of follow-up, 102 (16%) experienced an ischemic stroke. Heart failure was associated with a 17.4-fold increased risk for stroke compared with the general population in the first 30 days after HF diagnosis and remained elevated during 5 years of follow-up. Older persons with prior stroke or diabetes were more likely to experience stroke after HF diagnosis. Persons with stroke after HF were 2.31 times more likely to die compared with persons without stroke. CONCLUSIONS: In the community, persons with HF have a large increase in the risk for ischemic stroke compared with the general population. Stroke results in a >2-fold increase in mortality. Thus, prevention of stroke has the potential to improve survival among patients with HF, particularly among the elderly and those with diabetes or prior stroke.

Age Factors↗

PubMed2006

Sex and classic risk factors after myocardial infarction: a community study.

BACKGROUND: Sex-specific data on classic risk factors and their impact after myocardial infarction (MI) in the community are lacking. We evaluated the prevalence and association of classic risk factors with recurrent ischemic events in patients with MI and tested the hypothesis that they differed by sex. METHODS: All patients (1104, 45% women) from Olmsted County, Minnesota, hospitalized with an incident MI between 1990 and 1998 were identified using standardized criteria and followed-up (mean 3.7 years) for recurrent ischemic events, defined as recurrent MI, ischemic stroke, or coronary death. Data on hypertension, diabetes, hypercholesterolemia, smoking, and obesity at index hospitalization were analyzed individually and in clusters. RESULTS: Women were older than men (73 vs 64 years, P < .001) and had more risk factors. During follow-up, 423 events occurred. For women, the adjusted risk of recurrent events increased with hypertension, diabetes, and hypercholesterolemia. For men, no increase in risk was detected with any risk factor. The population attributable risk of all risk factors combined was 46% (95% CI 29%-62%) in women and 19% (95% CI 6%-35%) in men. As the number of risk factors increased from 1 to > or = 4, compared with no risk factors, the adjusted hazard ratio in women increased progressively (1.12, 1.82, 2.34, and 2.68, respectively), whereas no trend was detected in men (1.40, 1.27, 1.24, and 1.37, respectively) (P = .01 for effect modification by sex). CONCLUSIONS: Classic risk factors are highly prevalent and often clustered in MI, especially among women. Although their predictive value for recurrent ischemic events is marginal in men, strong associations exist in women, which define secondary prevention opportunities.

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PubMed2006

Diabetes in heart failure: prevalence and impact on outcome in the population.

PURPOSE: Little is known on the prevalence and prognostic importance of diabetes mellitus (DM) among individuals with heart failure (HF) in community-based cohorts. METHODS: Within Olmsted County, Minnesota, a random sample of all subjects with a first diagnosis of HF between 1979 and 1999 was validated using Framingham criteria. DM was validated using glycemic criteria. RESULTS: Among 665 subjects with HF (mean age 77+/-12 years, 46% male), 20% had prior DM. Subjects with DM were younger, had greater body mass index (BMI), and lower left ventricular ejection fraction than subjects without diabetes. The prevalence of DM increased markedly over time (3.8% per year; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.8 to 6.9; P=.024), independently of BMI, particularly in older subjects (odds ratio of having DM in 1999 compared with 1979 was 3.93 [95% CI, 1.57 to 9.83] in subjects > or = 75 years vs. 1.11 [95% CI, .40 to 3.05] in subjects <75 years). Five-year survival was 37% among subjects with DM versus 46% among subjects without (P=.017). The risk of death associated with DM differed markedly according to clinical coronary artery disease (CAD) (P=.025). Subjects with DM and no CAD had a higher risk of death (relative risk [RR]=1.79 [95% CI, 1.33 to 2.41]) than those with CAD (RR=1.11 [95% CI, .81 to 1.51]), independently of age, sex, BMI, renal function, calendar year of HF, comorbidity and EF. CONCLUSIONS: Among community-dwelling patients with HF, the prevalence of DM increased markedly over time. DM is associated with a large increase in mortality, particularly among subjects without clinical CAD, underscoring the importance of aggressive management of DM in HF.

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PubMed2006

Use of ejection fraction tests and coronary angiography in patients with heart failure.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the use of tests that measure ejection fraction (EF) and the use of coronary angiography among patients with an initial diagnosis of heart failure (HF). PATIENTS AND METHODS: All potential cases of incident HF in Olmsted County, Minnesota, between 1979 and 1999 were identifled. In a random sample of cases validated with the Framingham criteria, we examined the frequency of tests that measure EF (echocardiography, radionuclide ventriculography, and left ventricular angiography) and coronary angiography within 90 days after diagnosis. RESULTS: A total of 655 patients with incident HF were included in the analysis. The use of tests that measure EF and coronary angiography increased early in the study period but stabilized thereafter. In the most recent years (1995-1999), EF was measured in 65% of the patients and coronary angiography performed in 12%. After adjustment for year of diagnosis, body mass index, hypertension, diabetes mellitus, smoking, hyperlipidemia, comorbidity, prior myocardial infarction, and prior angina, men were more likely than women to have EF measured (odds ratio [OR], 1.47; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.01-2.16) and coronary angiography (OR, 2.61; 95% CI, 1.43-4.76). Increasing age was associated with less use of tests (OR, 0.83; 95% CI, 0.76-0.91; for EF measurement; OR, 0.72; 95% CI, 0.63-0.82; for coronary angiography for every 5-year increase in age). CONCLUSION: Among patients with HF, tests that measure EF are used substantially less than recommended, and coronary angiograms are used infrequently. Use was particularly low in women and elderly patients. Given the potential benefits of such tests, including more appropriate therapy and more objective monitoring of ventricular function, outcomes in persons with HF may be improved with more consistent use.

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PubMed2005

A community-based study of stroke incidence after myocardial infarction.

BACKGROUND: The rate of stroke after myocardial infarction (MI) remains unclear. OBJECTIVES: To examine the rate of stroke after incident MI; compare it with that observed in the population of Rochester, Minnesota; determine how the rate of stroke after MI has changed over time; and examine the impact of stroke on survival after incident MI. DESIGN: Community-based cohort. SETTING: Olmsted County, Minnesota. PARTICIPANTS: Persons with incident (first-ever) MI between 1979 and 1998. MEASUREMENTS: Ischemic or hemorrhagic stroke in hospitalized and nonhospitalized patients that was identified by screening of the medical record for stroke diagnostic codes and subsequent stroke confirmation by physician review of the recorded event. Medical record review was used to ascertain baseline characteristics and death. RESULTS: A total of 2160 persons with incident MI were hospitalized between 1979 and 1998 and followed for a median of 5.6 years (range, 0 to 22.2 years). The rate of stroke was 22.6 per 1000 person-months (95% CI, 16.3 to 30.6 per 1000 person-months) during the first 30 days after MI, corresponding to a 44-fold increase (standardized morbidity ratio, 44 [95% CI, 32 to 59]) risk for stroke in the population of Rochester, Minnesota. The risk for stroke remained 2 to 3 times higher than expected during the first 3 years after MI. Older age, previous stroke, and diabetes increased the risk for stroke, which did not decline over the study period. Strokes were associated with a large increase in the risk for death after MI (hazard ratio, 2.89 [CI, 2.44 to 3.43]). LIMITATIONS: Findings may not be generalizable to different populations. The authors measured outcomes by reviewing medical records. CONCLUSIONS: In the community, the risk for stroke is markedly increased after MI, particularly early after MI, compared with the expected risk in population without MI. Stroke is associated with a large increase in the risk for death after MI.

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PubMed2005

Heart disease and dementia: a population-based study.

There are conflicting reports on the possible positive association between coronary disease and dementia. The objectives of this study were to examine the association between coronary disease, as measured by myocardial infarction and cardiac death, and dementia in a population-based study. By use of the record-linkage system of the Rochester Epidemiology Project, 916 cases of dementia and 916 age (+/-1 year)- and sex-matched controls were identified in Rochester, Minnesota, between 1985 and 1994. From the same population, the authors identified all subjects who experienced a myocardial infarction (defined using standardized criteria) during the period 1979-1998. For myocardial infarction occurring prior to the index year of dementia, the authors used conditional logistic regression (case-control analysis), while for myocardial infarction and death occurring after the index year, they used competing risk survival analysis to account for informative censoring (cohort analysis). Before the index year, the odds ratio for myocardial infarction among cases with dementia compared with controls was 1.00 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.62, 1.62; p = 1.00). After the index year, patients with dementia had a 46% decreased risk of subsequent myocardial infarction (hazard ratio = 0.54, 95% CI: 0.36, 0.82; p = 0.004) and an 18% decreased risk of cardiac death (hazard ratio = 0.82, 95% CI: 0.70, 0.95; p = 0.010). There was no evidence of a positive association between dementia and preceding myocardial infarction, while there was a decreased risk of myocardial infarction and cardiac death following dementia.

Adult↗

PubMed2005

Heart failure and death after myocardial infarction in the community: the emerging role of mitral regurgitation.

BACKGROUND: In case series, mitral regurgitation (MR) increased the risk of death after myocardial infarction (MI), yet the prevalence of MR, its incremental prognostic value over ejection fraction (EF), and its association with heart failure and death after MI in the community is not known. METHODS AND RESULTS: The prevalence of MR and its association with heart failure and death were examined among 1331 patients within a geographically defined MI incidence cohort between 1988 and 1998. Echocardiography was performed within 30 days after MI in 773 patients (58%), and MR was present in 50% of cases, mild in 38%, and moderate or severe in 12%. Among patients with MR, a murmur was inconsistently detected clinically. After 4.7+/-3.3 years of follow-up, 109 episodes of heart failure and 335 deaths occurred. There was a graded positive association between the presence and severity of MR and heart failure or death. Moderate or severe MR was associated with a large increase in the risk of heart failure (relative risk 3.44, 95% CI 1.74 to 6.82, P<0.001) and death (relative risk 1.55, 95% CI 1.08 to 2.22, P=0.019) among 30-day survivors independent of age, gender, EF, and Killip class. CONCLUSIONS: In the community, MR is frequent and often silent after MI. It carries information to predict heart failure or death among 30-day survivors independently of age, gender, EF, and Killip class. These findings, which are applicable to a large community-based MI cohort, suggest that the assessment of MR should be included in post-MI risk stratification.

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PubMed2005

Heart failure after myocardial infarction: clinical presentation and survival.

OBJECTIVES: To characterize the presentation and outcome of patients with heart failure (HF) after myocardial infarction (MI) according to left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) and test the hypothesis that the outcome of HF did not change over time. BACKGROUND: Little is known about the presentation and outcome of HF post-MI and how these may have changed over time. METHODS: Using the Rochester Epidemiology Project, all residents of Olmsted County, Minnesota who experienced an incident MI between 1979 and 1998 were identified; MI and HF were validated using standardized criteria. Subjects were followed through their community medical record. RESULTS: Between 1979 and 1998, 1915 patients with incident MI and no prior history of HF were identified. Of these, 791(41%) experienced new onset HF as defined by Framingham criteria during 6.6+/-5.0 years of follow-up. Forty-seven percent were men, mean age was 73+/-12 years. Forty-four percent had impaired LVEF, 18% preserved LVEF and 38% had no LVEF measurement within 60 days after the HF event. Median survival after HF onset was 4 years and at 5 years after HF onset, only 45% were alive. Older age, male sex, comorbidity, hypertension and no LVEF assessment were associated with increased risk of death, however, patients with impaired LVEF had the worst outcome. Over time, survival did not improve (HR for year: 1.00; 95% CI 0.99, 1.02; P=0.919) even after adjustment for baseline characteristics. CONCLUSION: In this geographically defined cohort of patients with MI, new onset HF after the MI was frequent. When measured, LVEF was most frequently reduced, consistent with systolic heart failure. Mortality was high and did not decline over time and death was independently associated with male sex, older age, hypertension and comorbidity. It also differed according to LVEF, which was inconsistently ascertained in this setting, potentially representing practice opportunities.

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PubMed2004

Cardiac rehabilitation after myocardial infarction in the community.

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to examine participation in cardiac rehabilitation after myocardial infarction (MI) by age and gender and the association of participation with survival. BACKGROUND: Lesser participation in cardiac rehabilitation has been reported for women and the elderly. METHODS: All incident MIs in Olmsted County were validated. Baseline characteristics and outcomes were ascertained from the medical record. Logistic regression examined the association between participation, age, and gender. Propensity scores were used to examine the association between participation and outcome. RESULTS: Among 1,821 persons with incident MI (58% men, 46% age >70 years), 55% participated in cardiac rehabilitation. Participants were more likely to be men, younger, and have fewer comorbidities (p < 0.01 for all comparisons). After adjustment, women were 55% less likely to participate than men (odds ratio [OR] 0.45, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.34 to 0.60), and persons 70 years or older were 77% less likely to participate than persons younger than 60 (OR 0.23, 95% CI 0.16 to 0.33). Participants had a lower risk of death and recurrent MI at three years (p < 0.001 and p = 0.049, respectively). The survival benefit associated with participation was stronger in more recent years (relative risk [RR] for 1998 vs. 1982 0.28, 95% CI 0.18 to 0.43; RR for 1990 vs. 1982 0.41, 95% CI 0.33 to 0.52). CONCLUSIONS: Approximately half of the patients participated in cardiac rehabilitation after MI. Participation did not increase over time. Women and elderly persons were less likely to participate, independently of other characteristics. Participation in rehabilitation was independently associated with decreased mortality and recurrent MI, and its protective effect was stronger in more recent years.

Age Factors↗

PubMed2004

Temporal trends in the incidence of coronary disease.

PURPOSE: Mortality due to coronary disease has declined, but the incidence of myocardial infarction has changed little. Whether the incidence of myocardial infarction reflects that of overall coronary disease is unknown. This study was designed to determine whether the incidence of coronary disease has declined over time. METHODS: We ascertained incident cases of overt coronary disease (myocardial infarction, sudden death, angiographically diagnosed coronary disease, unstable angina not identified under other rubrics) between 1979 and 1998, using medical records of patients in Olmsted County, Minnesota. Secular trends were analyzed with Poisson regression. RESULTS: Between 1979 and 1998, there were 5772 incident cases of coronary disease (myocardial infarction: 1991; sudden death: 1056; angiographically diagnosed coronary disease: 2514; unstable angina: 211). The age- and sex-adjusted incidence of myocardial infarction declined 6% during these two decades and 3% in the second decade, whereas the incidence of myocardial infarction and sudden death combined declined 17% in the first two decades and 9% in the second decade. Use of angiography increased and served as a measure of coronary disease incidence in the second decade. During the second decade, trends in the incidence of all coronary diseases paralleled those of myocardial infarction and of myocardial infarction and sudden death combined, declining 9% (P = 0.06). Cases of coronary disease diagnosed angiographically increased during the period studied. CONCLUSION: The trends that we observed suggest that myocardial infarction and sudden death constitute suitable indicators of trends in coronary disease. The decline in incident coronary disease cases supports the hypothesis that the decline in mortality is explained in part by primary prevention and secondary prevention partially mediated by earlier detection.

Age Factors↗

PubMed2004

Trends in heart failure incidence and survival in a community-based population.

CONTEXT: The epidemic of heart failure has yet to be fully investigated, and data on incidence, survival, and sex-specific temporal trends in community-based populations are limited. OBJECTIVE: To test the hypothesis that the incidence of heart failure has declined and survival after heart failure diagnosis has improved over time but that secular trends have diverged by sex. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Population-based cohort study using the resources of the Rochester Epidemiology Project conducted in Olmsted County, Minnesota. Patients were 4537 Olmsted County residents (57% women; mean [SD] age, 74 [14] years) with a diagnosis of heart failure between 1979 and 2000. Framingham criteria and clinical criteria were used to validate the diagnosis MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Incidence of heart failure and survival after heart failure diagnosis. RESULTS: The incidence of heart failure was higher among men (378/100 000 persons; 95% confidence interval [CI], 361-395 for men; 289/100 000 persons; 95% CI, 277-300 for women) and did not change over time among men or women. After a mean follow-up of 4.2 years (range, 0-23.8 years), 3347 deaths occurred, including 1930 among women and 1417 among men. Survival after heart failure diagnosis was worse among men than women (relative risk, 1.33; 95% CI, 1.24-1.43) but overall improved over time (5-year age-adjusted survival, 43% in 1979-1984 vs 52% in 1996-2000, P<.001). However, men and younger persons experienced larger survival gains, contrasting with less or no improvement for women and elderly persons. CONCLUSION: In this community-based cohort, the incidence of heart failure has not declined during 2 decades, but survival after onset of heart failure has increased overall, with less improvement among women and elderly persons.

Age Factors↗

PubMed2004

Sudden death and recurrent ischemic events after myocardial infarction in the community.

As myocardial infarction (MI) hospital fatalities decline, survivors are candidates for recurrent events. However, little is known about morbidity after MI and how it may have changed over time. The authors examined the incidence of sudden cardiac death and recurrent ischemic events post-MI to test the hypothesis that it has declined over time. MIs were validated by using standardized criteria. Sudden cardiac death and recurrent ischemic events (recurrent MI or unstable angina) were identified through Olmsted County, Minnesota, community medical records and their association with time examined after adjustment for age, sex, and comorbidity. Between 1979 and 1998, 2,277 MIs occurred (57% in men; mean age, 67 (standard deviation, 14) years). After 3 years, the event-free survival rate was 94% (95% confidence interval: 93, 95) for sudden cardiac death and 56% (95% confidence interval: 54, 58) for recurrent ischemic events. Both outcomes were more frequent with older age and greater comorbidity. The temporal decline in both events was of similar magnitude; for an MI occurring in 1998 versus 1979, risk of subsequent recurrent ischemic events or sudden cardiac death declined by 24% (relative risk = 0.76, 95% confidence interval: 0.63, 0.93). Thus, in the community, recurrent ischemic events are frequent post-MI, while sudden cardiac death is less common. Their incidence declined over time, supporting the notion that contemporary treatments effectively improve outcomes after MI.

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