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Biomedical subjects

T J Espenshade

Publications and source records attributed to T J Espenshade.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
PubMed1997

Neo-isolationism, balanced-budget conservatism, and the fiscal impacts of immigrants.

"A rise in neo-isolationism in the United States has given encouragement to a new fiscal politics of immigration. Growing anti-immigrant sentiment has coalesced with forces of fiscal conservatism to make immigrants an easy target of budget cuts. Limits on legal alien access to social welfare programs that are contained in the 1996 welfare and immigration reform acts seem motivated not so much by a guiding philosophy of what it means to be a member of American society as by a desire to shrink the size of the federal government and to produce a balanced budget. Even more than in the past, the consequence of a shrinking welfare state is to metamorphose legal immigrants from public charges to windfall gains for the federal treasury."

Americas↗
PubMed1996

Contemporary American attitudes toward U.S. immigration.

"This article aims to contribute to an understanding of contemporary American attitudes toward immigration.... The paper uses data from a CBS News/New York Times poll conducted in June 1993. Respondents were asked whether they would like to see the level of immigration to the United States increased, decreased or kept the same. We test several hypotheses about factors influencing respondents' attitudes, including the importance of previously unexamined predictors. These new hypotheses relate to views about the health of the U.S. economy, feelings of social and political alienation, and isolationist sentiments concerning international economic issues and foreign relations. One important discovery is the close connection between possessing restrictionist immigration attitudes and having an isolationist perspective along a broader array of international issues."

Americas↗
PubMed1995

Unauthorized immigration to the United States.

"This paper surveys research on the size of the undocumented immigrant population in the United States, the causes and consequences of illegal migrant flows, public attitudes toward unauthorized migrants, and the history of attempts to control the volume of undocumented migration. It concludes that there are powerful push and pull factors that create and sustain the volume of unauthorized migration, that there is little evidence that undocumented migrants have negative labor market consequences despite what the general public thinks, that U.S. policy has been largely powerless to make a permanent dent in undocumented immigration, and that the current level of clandestine U.S. immigration may not be far from what society might view as socially optimal."

Americas↗
PubMed1995

Using INS border apprehension data to measure the flow of undocumented migrants crossing the U.S.-Mexico frontier.

"This article examines how data on INS [Immigration and Naturalization Service] border apprehensions are related to the flow of undocumented migrants crossing the southern U.S. border. Its centerpiece is a demographic model of the process of unauthorized migration across the Mexico-U.S. frontier. This model is both a conceptual framework that allows us to see theoretical linkages between apprehensions and illegal migrant flows, and a methodological device that yields estimates of the gross number of undocumented migrants. One implication of the model is that, for the first time, the relation between apprehensions and illegal flows can be examined empirically. We show that the ratio in each period between apprehensions and the undocumented flow is simply the odds of being located and arrested on any given attempt to enter the United States clandestinely."

Americas↗
PubMed1992

Fiscal impacts of immigration to the United States.

"The purpose of this paper is to fill a gap in the demographic literature by reviewing previous fiscal studies of immigration in the United States. Each study is introduced by describing the data it uses, the methodologies employed in calculating costs and revenues, and the resulting estimates of fiscal consequences. Evaluative comments are also stressed. Seventeen studies are included in this review, divided into those that emphasize national fiscal impacts (these studies aggregate the effects of immigrants across all levels of government), state fiscal impacts, and fiscal effects on local governments."

Americas↗
PubMed1990

Time and trajectory of convergence to population stationarity with immigration and low fertility.

"Recent research aimed at extending classical stable population theory to include immigration has shown that a stationary population is the long-term equilibrium outcome if, starting from any initial configuration, a population is projected forward under conditions of constant below-replacement fertility, constant mortality, and a constant annual number of immigrants whose age-sex composition is also fixed. This paper addresses two related questions: (1) What path does the projected population follow on its way to a long-term stationary population equilibrium? and (2) How long does it take for a stationary population to be achieved? To answer these questions a formal theory of population dynamics in the below replacement case is developed and then illustrated with a projection of the 1980 U.S. population."

Americas↗
PubMed1983

Marriage, divorce, and remarriage from retrospective data: a multiregional approach.

"In this paper the author applies the framework of multiregional population analysis to marital status changes as revealed by longitudinal retrospective data on marital histories collected as part of the June 1975 [U.S.] Current Population Survey supplement. Four marital statuses are used: never married, presently married, divorced, and widowed. Marital status life tables are computed for three periods: 1960-1965, 1965-1970, and 1970-1975, and, for each period, differences between males and females and between whites and blacks are described." Consideration is given to "the proportion of a life-table cohort ever marrying, the mean age at first marriage, the number of marriages per person marrying, the proportion of marriages ending in divorce, the average duration of a marriage (or a divorce, or a widowhood), and the like."

Black or African American↗
PubMed1982

Immigration and the stable population model.

This paper reports on work aimed at extending stable population theory to include immigration. its central findings is that, as long as fertility is below replacement, a constant number and age distribution of immigrants (with fixed fertility and mortality schedules) lead to a stationary population. Neither the level of the net reproduction rate nor the size of the annual immigration affects this conclusion; a stationary population eventually emerges. How this stationary population is created is studied, as is the generational distribution of the constant annual stream of births and of the total population. It is also shown that immigrants and their early descendants may have fertility well above replacement (as long as later generations adopt and maintain fertility below replacement), and the outcome will still be a long-run stationary population.

Adolescent↗
PubMed1982

Confidence intervals for postcensal state population estimates.

This paper develops a methodology for constructing confidence intervals around postcensal state population estimates. Using regression equations, forecast intervals are derived around the average age-specific death rates over the postcensal estimation period. These results, combined with the number of postcensal deaths and the most current census counts, are translated into confidence intervals for the age structure. Two approaches are offered for constructing total population confidence intervals. One examines a simulated distribution while the other focuses on the mathematical derivation of population means and variances. The methodology is illustrated by deriving statistically defensible confidence intervals around the July 1, 1975 population of Florida.

Adolescent↗
PubMed1977

The stable equivalent population, age composition, and Fisher's reproductive value function.

This paper deals with a further analysis of the stable equivalent population for human populations. It first shows that the arithmetic difference between the size of the stable equivalent population and the actual population captures the total prospective contribution of age composition to the growth of the present population" if fertility and mortality rates are held constant at their current levels. The second part of the paper examined Fisher's reproductive value function and investigates the location of maxima in relation to alternative values of the intrinsic growth rate. One conclusion which follows from this analysis is that, contrary to what has been discovered by others in specific examples, the reproductive value function can possess a global maximum in the first one or two years of life, provided the intrinsic rate of population growth is sufficiently negative. This principle is illustrated by reference to reproductive value functions calculated from the recent experience of U.S. females.

Adolescent↗
PubMed1976

Compensating changes in fertility and mortality.

This paper illustrates a method of studying changes in vital rate schedules which have no effect on the intrinsic rate of population growth. These changes are described as compensating changes in fertility and mortality. The analysis proceeds from the discrete perspective of Leslie matrices, wherein the central idea is to establish the set of all compensating changes by identifying that class of Leslie matrices which possess the same positive eigenvalue, lambda1. A root-squaring technique is adapted for the purpose of estimating lambda1. Finally, a variety of compensating fertility and mortality changes is illustrated using data from Japan.

Adolescent↗