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Biomedical subjects

T R Fears

Publications and source records attributed to T R Fears.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
PubMed1992

Control sample size when cases are given in constant ratio stratum-matched case-control studies.

Strata-matched case-control studies based on a given number of cases and k times as many controls are common. We obtain a necessary and sufficient condition for there to exist a numerical solution for k with a desired level of a power. We derive the maximum power of the Cochran test, which may be less than one, when the number of cases is fixed. We provide an approximate formula for the minimum number of cases required for a specified power. There exists a numerical solution (that is, convergence of an iterative method) for k if the number of cases given is greater than this minimum number and no such a solution otherwise. We also show that the incremental gain in relative efficiency of the test with respect to k is diminished as k gets large.

Adult↗
PubMed1992

Optimum sample size determination in stratified case-control studies with cost considerations.

We investigate sample size determination for Cochran's test for stratified case-control studies when samples of cases and controls are allocated to maximize the asymptotic efficiency of Cochran's test subject to fixed total cost with cost per control varying by strata. We consider two situations typical of strata-matched case-control studies: when one samples both cases and controls and when cases are given and one samples controls. In each situation we develop and study an asymptotic method for finding the sample size required for a specific power under the optimum allocation proposed by Nam and Fears. Also, for the second situation, we investigate an asymptotic method for determining the common ratio, k, in one-to-k strata-matched case-control studies without cost consideration for a given power. When cases are given, neither the optimum nor the standard control sample sizes appear in a closed form; we present numerical methods for calculating these sample sizes and illustrate them with examples. We find the reduction in total cost obtained under the optimum allocation compared to standard allocation more pronounced as the differences in stratum-specific costs of sampling controls increase.

Adult↗
PubMed1992

Early menopause in long-term survivors of cancer during adolescence.

OBJECTIVE: We attempted to investigate the risk of early menopause after treatment for cancer during childhood or adolescence. STUDY DESIGN: We interviewed 1067 women in whom cancer was diagnosed before age 20, who were at least 5-year survivors, and who were still menstruating at age 21. Self-reported menopause status in survivors was compared with that in 1599 control women. RESULTS: Cancer survivors, with disease diagnosed between ages 13 and 19, had a risk of menopause four times greater than that of controls during the ages 21 to 25; the risk relative to controls declined thereafter. Significantly increased relative risks of menopause during the early 20s occurred after treatment with either radiotherapy alone (relative risk 3.7) or alkylating agents alone (relative risk 9.2). During ages 21 to 25 the risk of menopause increased 27-fold for women treated with both radiation below the diaphragm and alkylating agent chemotherapy. By age 31, 42% of these women had reached menopause compared with 5% for controls. CONCLUSION: Treatment for cancer during adolescence carries a substantial risk for early menopause among women still menstruating at age 21. Increasing use of radiation and chemotherapy, together with the continued trend toward delayed childbearing, suggests that these women should be made aware of their smaller window of fertility so that they can plan their families accordingly.

Adult↗
PubMed1991

Incidence of nonmelanoma skin cancer in New Hampshire and Vermont.

A survey of skin cancer occurrence between June 1979 and May 1980 among residents of New Hampshire and Vermont identified 277 cases of squamous cell carcinoma and 1761 cases of basal cell carcinoma. The age-adjusted incidence rates for squamous cell carcinoma (32 per 100,000 in men, 8 per 100,000 in women) and for basal cell carcinoma (159 per 100,000 in men, 87 per 100,000 in women) were similar to those reported in other populations in the northern United States. Skin cancer incidence was particularly high among men more than 70 years of age and a large proportion (greater than 30%) of patients 55 years or older had a history of at least one previous skin cancer.

Adolescent↗
PubMed1991

Growth of the great vessels in the normal human fetus and in the fetus with cardiac defects.

BACKGROUND: There is a paucity of quantitative anatomic data regarding human great vessel development that could be useful as a reference for fetal echocardiographers who must distinguish abnormal from normal cardiac development at early stages. METHODS AND RESULTS: To determine normal growth patterns, we plotted the diameters of the aortic and pulmonary valves, ductus arteriosus, aortic isthmus, and descending aorta in 274 autopsy specimens from nonselected spontaneous abortuses of normal karyotype. There was a linear increase in the diameters of these structures within the developmental period studied (10-26 weeks). A relative narrowing of the aorta at the isthmus compared with the aortic valve and descending aorta probably indicates that the majority of fetal left heart output goes to the developing heart and brain. In contrast to previous studies of late gestation and neonatal animals, however, we found that the diameter of the aortic isthmus was larger than that of the ductus arteriosus, suggesting substantial isthmic blood flow in these midtrimester fetuses. Among nineteen other hearts with diverse defects, both of two hearts with a narrow isthmus had an enlarged ductus arteriosus and one heart with pulmonary atresia/intact septum had a narrow ductus and increased aortic valve diameter. CONCLUSIONS: During midgestation, the normal heart may have substantial aortic isthmic blood flow that diminishes due to rerouting in late gestation when increased requirements of the fetal brain and other organs prevail. Although fetal shunts may explain some vessel abnormalities, the majority of cardiac defects in this study were not associated with abnormal growth of the great vessels within this developmental age range.

Aorta↗
PubMed1990

Optimum allocation of samples in strata-matching case-control studies when cost per sample differs from stratum to stratum.

We investigate the allocation of samples over strata in case-control studies with consideration of sampling costs. We consider two situations, typical of strata-matched case-control studies. Subject to a fixed total cost we derived optimum allocations that maximize the asymptotic efficiency of Cochran's test, that is, minimize the variance of the maximum likelihood estimator of the common odds ratio when the common odds ratio is one. Our results show that the standard design with equal numbers of cases and controls in each stratum is inefficient when costs per control differ greatly from stratum to stratum. We show that the optimum design suggested in this paper is robust for values of the odds ratio common in epidemiologic studies.

Case-Control Studies↗
PubMed1979

Comparison and evaluation of some experimental designs for use in carcinogen screening.

The development and evaluation of experimental designs for routine in vivo screening of chemicals for potential carcinogenic activity were considered. Such designs have played an important role in the Carcinogenesis Bloassay Program of the National Cancer Institute (NCI). In particular, the current one-stage 50-animal/group screen used by the NCI was considered. A specific two-stage alternative was proposed in which 35 animals/group were used; this alternative allowed for retesting of equivocal compounds. The proposed designs were evaluated in terms of sensitivity, specificity, and throughout. Despite the large number of tests made for each compound, the false-positive rate was found to be less than 0.07 for the current screen and less than 0.05 for the proposed two-stage alternative. The power of the one-stage and two-stage screens was comparable. The two-stage screen was shown to make about 30% more decisions per test period with a savings of around 28% in the expected number of animals needed per compound tested.

Animals↗
PubMed1979

Evaluation of procedures suggested for reducing the pathology workload in a carcinogenesis testing program.

A sampling procedure for reducing the pathology workload in evaluating a carcinogenicity bioassay was utilized for a rodent bioassay. The use of the procedure resulted in 50 percent fewer tissues being examined histologically, in the control groups and 12 percent fewer tissues in the treatment groups. The obvious saving in pathologist's time was negated by an increase in technician time, interference with quality control procedures and loss of nontumor pathology information.

Animals↗
PubMed1978

Skin cancer epidemiology: research needs.

The basis data currently being used to estimate and evaluate the dose-response relationship of UV-B and skin cancer are from a 6-month survey for four areas that participated in the TNCS, 1971-1972. Although most investigators from various fields of interest outside of cancer research, i.e. aviation, environmental ecology, physics, chemistry, and photobiology, etc., may admit an association between nonmelanoma skin cancer and UV-B exists, they point out that 1) the epidemiologic data currently available are too sparse and lack certain detail, such as exposure patterns and skin types, and 2) more data of this type are needed over a broad geographical range to allow for more precise measurements of the effects of stratospheric ozone depletion. They argue that the present relationships could change drastically with the addition even of a few more points (geographical locations) and that location-specific and demographic factors should be evaluated. Therefore, these data need to be updated and expanded to include more locations over a longer study period. The National Cancer Institute and the Environmental Protection Agency undertook a special skin cancer study from June 1, 1977 to May 31, 1978. The objectives of this study were: 1) to determine the incidence of nonmelanoma skin cancer (basal cell and squamous cell carcinomas) in various population groups within the United States, and 2) to ascertain and measure epidemiologic factors that may contribute toward the excess risk of nonmelanoma skin cancer in specific population groups.

Adolescent↗
PubMed1977

Mathematical models of age and ultraviolet effects on the incidence of skin cancer among whites in the United States.

That sunlight leads to skin cancer has been generally accepted for nearly a century. Physical data are, for the first time, available which support this hypothesis. The authors have found that a simple power relationship can be used to describe the data and that the form of this power function suggests that the risk of nonmelanoma skin cancer is related to cumulative lifetime ultraviolet (UV) exposure and that the risk of melanoma skin cancer is related to annual UV exposure. The authors emphasize that skin cancer risk also depends on location-specific demographic variables other than ultraviolet radiation.

Adult↗
PubMed1977

False-positive and false-negative rates for carcinogenicity screens.

The implementation of a number of chemical carcinogen screening programs has been accompanied by the observation that some screens might have high false-positive error rates. With designs presently used at the National Cancer Institute and historical spontaneous tumor rates based upon control animals in previous experiments, we compute upper bounds on the false-positive error rates for several screening strategies. False-positive results are much less likely to occur at tissue sites with low spontaneous tumor rates; hence the site at which a significant tumor increase occurs is important. There is danger in relying solely upon the finding of statistical significance without incorporating biological knowledge and corroborative evidence such as the presence of a dose-response relationship or experimentally consistent results in different species or sexes. A report by the National Cancer Institute Carcinogenesis Program demonstrates these concepts.

Animals↗
PubMed1976

Cancer mortality and asbestos deposits.

Asbestos deposits are found in many parts of the United States. In this paper the question is asked: Is there an increase in risk from cancer associated with naturally-occurring asbestos? In an attempt to control for the urban effect, geographic gradient and socioeconomic class, each county in the United States with asbestos deposits was matched for percent of area that was urban and for median years in school with two nearby counties that did not have known asbestos deposits. The study of cancer mortality rates in these matched counties provides no evidence that naturally-occurring asbestos is a great hazard to the general population of counties with asbestos depostis.

Age Factors↗
PubMed1976

Skin cancer, melanoma, and sunlight.

Recent theoretical studies suggest that the earth's ozone layer which filters ultraviolet radiation may be depleted by a fleet of supersonic transports or by continued use of chlorofluoromethanes. It is now generally accepted that short wavelength ultraviolet radiation leads to the development of skin cancer. In this report we demonstrate an approach to estimating the increase in skin cancer incidence associated with increases in skin cancer incidence associated with increases in ultraviolet radiation. The purpose is to demonstrate the logic used and the assumptions that must be made when such estiamtes are made or cited. We emphasize that such estimates should be considered crude until the many assumptions can be investigated.

Environmental Exposure↗
PubMedDate not supplied

Population-based monitoring of an urban HIV/AIDS epidemic. Magnitude and trends in the District of Columbia.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the extent of the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) epidemic in the District of Columbia and demonstrate an approach to monitoring HIV infection and projecting AIDS incidence at a community level. DESIGN: Backcalculation methods to reconstruct HIV incidence from AIDS incidence in subgroups. Results were compared with directly measured HIV seroprevalence in selected sentinel populations: childbearing women, civilian applicants for military service, and hospital patients admitted for conditions unrelated to HIV infection. RESULTS: Between the start of the epidemic in 1980 and January 1, 1991, one in 57 District of Columbia men aged 20 to 64 years was diagnosed with AIDS. Unlike the plateau projected for the nation, AIDS incidence for the District of Columbia was projected to increase by 34% between 1990 and 1994. Models of HIV infection incidence suggested two broad epidemic waves of approximately equal size. The first occurred in men who have sex with men and peaked during the period from 1982 through 1983. The second began in the mid-1980s in injecting drug users and heterosexuals. We estimated that among District of Columbia residents aged 20 to 64 years, 0.3% of white women, 2.9% of white men, 1.6% of black women, and 4.9% of black men were living with HIV infection as of January 1, 1991. These estimates are broadly consistent with survey data: among black childbearing women in their 20s, HIV prevalence doubled to 2% between the fall of 1989 and the spring of 1991; from military applicant data, we estimated that over 5% of black men born from 1951 through 1967 were HIV-positive; in the sentinel hospital, HIV prevalence rates among male patients aged 25 to 34 years were 11.3% in white men and 16.9% in black men. CONCLUSION: Backcalculation and surveys yielded quantitatively consistent estimates of HIV prevalence. Many injecting drug users and heterosexuals in the District of Columbia were infected after January 1, 1986. Similar monitoring of the epidemic in other localities is needed to focus efforts to reduce the incidence of HIV transmission.

Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome↗