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T W O'Neill

Publications and source records attributed to T W O'Neill.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
PubMed2006

Whom to treat? The contribution of vertebral X-rays to risk-based algorithms for fracture prediction. Results from the European Prospective Osteoporosis Study.

INTRODUCTION: Vertebral fracture is a strong risk factor for future spine and hip fractures; yet recent data suggest that only 5-20% of subjects with a spine fracture are identified in primary care. We aimed to develop easily applicable algorithms predicting a high risk of future spine fracture in men and women over 50 years of age. METHODS: Data was analysed from 5,561 men and women aged 50+ years participating in the European Prospective Osteoporosis Study (EPOS). Lateral thoracic and lumbar spine radiographs were taken at baseline and at an average of 3.8 years later. These were evaluated by an experienced radiologist. The risk of a new (incident) vertebral fracture was modelled as a function of age, number of prevalent vertebral fractures, height loss, sex and other fracture history reported by the subject, including limb fractures occurring between X-rays. Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves were used to compare the predictive ability of models. RESULTS: In a negative binomial regression model without baseline X-ray data, the risk of incident vertebral fracture significantly increased with age [RR 1.74, 95% CI (1.44, 2.10) per decade], height loss [1.08 (1.04, 1.12) per cm decrease], female sex [1.48 (1.05, 2.09)], and recalled fracture history; [1.65 (1.15, 2.38) to 3.03 (1.66, 5.54)] according to fracture site. Baseline radiological assessment of prevalent vertebral fracture significantly improved the areas subtended by ROC curves from 0.71 (0.67, 0.74) to 0.74 (0.70, 0.77) P=0.013 for predicting 1+ incident fracture; and from 0.74 (0.67, 0.81) to 0.83 (0.76, 0.90) P=0.001 for 2+ incident fractures. Age, sex and height loss remained independently predictive. The relative risk of a new vertebral fracture increased with the number of prevalent vertebral fractures present from 3.08 (2.10, 4.52) for 1 fracture to 9.36 (5.72, 15.32) for 3+. At a specificity of 90%, the model including X-ray data improved the sensitivity for predicting 2+ and 1+ incident fractures by 6 and 4 fold respectively compared with random guessing. At 75% specificity the improvements were 3.2 and 2.4 fold respectively. With the modelling restricted to the subjects who had BMD measurements (n=2,409), the AUC for predicting 1+ vs. 0 incident vertebral fractures improved from 0.72 (0.66, 0.79) to 0.76 (0.71, 0.82) upon adding femoral neck BMD (P=0.010). CONCLUSION: We conclude that for those with existing vertebral fractures, an accurately read spine X-ray will form a central component in future algorithms for targeting treatment, especially to the most vulnerable. The sensitivity of this approach to identifying vertebral fracture cases requiring anti-osteoporosis treatment, even when X-rays are ordered highly selectively, exceeds by a large margin the current standard of practice as recorded anywhere in the world.

Age Factors↗
PubMed2006

Systematic review of effectiveness of bisphosphonates in treatment of low bone mineral density and fragility fractures in juvenile idiopathic arthritis.

AIMS: To evaluate the currently available evidence for the effectiveness of bisphosphonates in children with low bone mineral density (BMD) and fragility fractures associated with juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA), and the safety of bisphosphonates in JIA and other conditions. METHODS: Literature databases were searched using a structured search strategy. The effectiveness review included any studies of children with JIA treated with bisphosphonates. The safety review also included studies of osteogenesis imperfecta. Quantitative data analysis was not undertaken because of the heterogeneity of the studies; findings were summarised using tables and narrative synthesis. RESULTS: Ninety four studies were identified. Sixteen studies (78 JIA children) were included in the effectiveness review: one randomised controlled trial, three controlled cohort studies, 11 case series, and one case report. At baseline, children had low BMD below the expected values for age and sex matched children. In all studies, treatment with bisphosphonates increased BMD compared with baseline: the mean percentage increase in spine BMD ranged from 4.5% to 19.1%. Overall, studies were heterogeneous and of variable quality. A total of 59 papers were included in the safety review; treatment durations were up to three years. The most common side effect was a flu-like reaction with intravenous treatment. This occurred during the first infusion and was transient; the symptoms were managed with paracetamol and did not occur during subsequent cycles. CONCLUSIONS: Bisphosphonates are a promising treatment for low BMD and fragility fractures in children with JIA. However, the quality of the current evidence is variable and better studies are needed to more clearly assess their role.

Adolescent↗
PubMed2005

Quality of life, morbidity, and mortality after low trauma hip fracture in men.

BACKGROUND: Osteoporotic hip fractures have been extensively studied in women, but they have been relatively ignored in men. OBJECTIVE: To study the mortality, morbidity, and impact on health related quality of life of male hip fractures. METHODS: 100 consecutive men aged 50 years and over, with incident low trauma hip fracture, admitted to Royal Cornwall Hospital, UK during 1995-97, were studied. 100 controls were recruited from a nearby general practice. Mortality and morbidity, including health status assessed using the SF-36, were evaluated over a 2 year follow up period. RESULTS: Survival after 2 years was 37% in fracture cases compared with 88% in controls (log rank test 62.6, df = 1, p = 0.0001). In the first year 45 patients died but only one control. By 2 years 58 patients but only 8 controls had died. Patients with hip fracture died from various causes, the most common being bronchopneumonia (21 cases), heart failure (9 cases), and ischaemic heart disease (8 cases). Factors associated with increased mortality after hip fracture included older age, residence before fracture in a nursing or residential home, presence of comorbid diseases, and poor functional activity before fracture. Patients with fracture were often disabled with poor quality of life. By 24 months 7 patients could not walk, 12 required residential accommodation, and the mean SF-36 physical summary score was 1.7SD below the normal standards. CONCLUSIONS: Low trauma hip fracture in men is associated with a significant increase in mortality and morbidity. Impaired function before fracture is a key determinant of mortality after fracture.

Accidental Falls↗
PubMed2005

Radiographic features of lumbar disc degeneration and bone mineral density in men and women.

OBJECTIVES: To determine the association between individual radiographic features of lumbar disc degeneration and bone mineral density (BMD) at the spine and hip. METHODS SUBJECTS: were recruited from a population register for a screening survey of vertebral osteoporosis. BMD was assessed at the spine and hip using dual energy x ray absorptiometry. Lateral spinal radiographs were evaluated for features of lumbar disc degeneration. Each vertebral level from L1/2 to L4/5 was assessed for the presence and severity of osteophytes, end plate sclerosis, and disc space narrowing. Linear regression was used to determine the association between each of these features and BMD at the spine and hip, with adjustments for age, body mass index, and levels of physical activity. Analyses were done separately in men and women. RESULTS: 250 women and 256 men (mean age around 65 years) were studied. At the lumbar spine, after age adjustment there was an increase in BMD with increasing grade for all radiographic features of disc degeneration in both men and women. At the femoral neck, after age adjustment there was an increase in BMD with increasing osteophyte and end plate sclerosis grade though not disc space narrowing. Adjusting for body mass index and physical activity did not influence the strength of the associations. CONCLUSIONS: Radiographic features of lumbar disc degeneration are associated with an increase in BMD at the spine. Osteophytes and end plate sclerosis, but not disc space narrowing, are associated with an increase in BMD at the hip.

Age Factors↗
PubMed2005

Rib fractures predict incident limb fractures: results from the European prospective osteoporosis study.

Population studies suggest that rib fractures are associated with a reduction in bone mass. While much is known about the predictive risk of hip, spine and distal forearm fracture on the risk of future fracture, little is known about the impact of rib fracture. The aim of this study was to determine whether a recalled history of rib fracture was associated with an increased risk of future limb fracture. Men and women aged 50 years and over were recruited from population registers in 31 European centres for participation in a screening survey of osteoporosis (European Prospective Osteoporosis Study). Subjects were invited to complete an interviewer-administered questionnaire that included questions about previous fractures including rib fracture, the age of their first fracture and also the level of trauma. Lateral spine radiographs were performed and the presence of vertebral deformity was determined morphometrically. Following the baseline survey, subjects were followed prospectively by annual postal questionnaire to determine the occurrence of clinical fractures. The subjects included 6,344 men, with a mean age of 64.2 years, and 6,788 women, with a mean age of 63.6 years, who were followed for a median of 3 years (range 0.4-5.9 years), of whom 135 men (2.3%) and 101 women (1.6%) reported a previous low trauma rib fracture. In total, 138 men and 391 women sustained a limb fracture during follow-up. In women, after age adjustment, those with a recalled history of low trauma rib fracture had an increased risk of sustaining 'any' limb fracture [relative hazard (RH)=2.3; 95% CI 1.3, 4.0]. When stratified by fracture type the predictive risk was more marked for hip (RH=7.7; 95% CI 2.3, 25.9) and humerus fracture (RH=4.5; 95% CI 1.4, 14.6) than other sites (RH=1.6; 95% CI 0.6, 4.3). Additional adjustment for prevalent vertebral deformity and previous (non-rib) low trauma fractures at other sites slightly reduced the strength of the association between rib fracture and subsequent limb fracture. In men, after age adjustment, there was a small though non-significant association between recalled history of rib fracture and future limb fracture. Our data highlight the importance of rib fracture as a marker of bone fragility in women.

Aged↗
PubMed2005

Occurrence and risk factors for falls in rheumatoid arthritis.

OBJECTIVES: To determine the one year period prevalence of falls by age and sex in patients with rheumatoid arthritis and the influence of concurrent medical treatment and disability on the occurrence of falls in this group. METHODS: A consecutive series of rheumatoid patients aged 35 years and over, attending hospital outpatient clinics at Hope hospital, Salford, were asked to complete an interview assisted questionnaire which asked about the occurrence and number of falls in the previous 12 months. SUBJECTS: who took part were asked about current treatment with antihypertensive agents, diuretics, sedatives or hypnotics, antidepressants, and a history of previous hip/knee surgery. They also completed the health assessment questionnaire (HAQ). Logistic regression was used to determine the association between these variables and falls in the previous 12 months. RESULTS: 253 men and women, mean age 62 years, were studied, and 84 (33%) reported falling in the previous year (36% of women and 26% of men). Of these, 52% had fallen on more than one occasion. There was no important increase in the frequency of falls with age. After adjusting for age and sex, those who had fallen in the previous year were more likely to report taking antidepressant treatment (odds ratio (OR) = 2.09) and to have impairment in both walking (OR = 1.37) and rising (OR = 1.41). The HAQ score was higher in those who reported a fall than those who did not, though the difference was not statistically significant. CONCLUSIONS: In this hospital based survey, one in three patients with rheumatoid arthritis reported falling in the previous 12 months. Falls were associated with self reported impairment in lower limb function.

Accidental Falls↗
PubMed2005

Low grip strength is associated with bone mineral density and vertebral fracture in women.

OBJECTIVES: Grip strength has been reported to be associated with bone mass locally at the forearm and also at distant skeletal sites, including the spine and hip. Less is known about the association between low grip strength and risk of vertebral fracture. The aim of this study was to examine the association between low grip strength, bone mineral density at the hip and spine, and vertebral fracture in middle-aged and elderly European men and women. METHODS: Men and women aged 50 yr and over were recruited for participation in a screening survey of vertebral osteoporosis across Europe. Subjects who agreed to take part had an interviewer-administered questionnaire and lateral spinal radiographs performed. Subjects were assessed also for grip strength using a handgrip dynamometer (range 0-300 mmHg). A subsample of those recruited had bone mineral density measurements performed at the spine and femoral neck. Subjects had repeat lateral spine radiographs performed a mean of 3.8 yr following the baseline survey. Linear regression analysis was used to determine the association between low grip strength and bone mineral density at the hip and spine. Logistic regression was used to determine the association between grip strength and both prevalent and incident vertebral fracture. RESULTS: One thousand two hundred and sixty-five men and 1380 women with data concerning grip strength and bone mineral density were included in the analysis. In women, after age adjustment, compared with those with 'normal' grip, those with 'impaired' (231-299 mmHg) and low grip (<231 mmHg) had significantly lower bone mass at the spine and femoral neck. In men, those with low grip strength had a lower BMD at the spine and hip than those in the normal group. However, because of the small numbers with submaximal grip strength, the confidence intervals around all estimates included zero. Adjustment for body size and levels of physical activity had little effect on the results. In addition, among women, after adjustment for age, body mass index and physical activity levels, compared with those with normal grip, those with low grip strength had an increased risk of developing incident vertebral fracture (odds ratio = 2.67; 95% confidence interval 1.13, 6.30). Further adjustment for spine bone density had little influence on the association (odds ratio = 2.60). CONCLUSIONS: In women, low grip strength is associated with low bone mineral density at both the spine and hip and an increased risk of incident vertebral fracture. These associations cannot be explained by differences in body size or lifestyle.

Absorptiometry, Photon↗
PubMed2005

Looking back: developments in our understanding of the occurrence, aetiology and prognosis of osteoporosis over the last 50 years.

This paper summarizes the contribution of the Arthritis Research Campaign Epidemiology Unit, in particular in its role as coordinator of the European Vertebral Osteoporosis Study, to our current understanding of osteoporosis. One in three postmenopausal women has osteoporosis in the UK. The cost to the NHS is around pound 1.7 billion per year. With the ageing population this is destined to rise.

England↗
PubMed2004

Back pain, disability, and radiographic vertebral fracture in European women: a prospective study.

Vertebral fractures are associated with back pain and disability. There are, however, few prospective data looking at back pain and disability following identification of radiographic vertebral fracture. The aim of this analysis was to determine the impact of radiographically identified vertebral fracture on the subsequent occurrence of back pain and disability. Women aged 50 years and over were recruited from population registers in 18 European centers for participation in the European Prospective Osteoporosis Study. Participants completed an interviewer-administered questionnaire which included questions about back pain in the past year and various activities of daily living, and they had lateral spine radiographs performed. Participants in these centers were followed prospectively and had repeat spine radiographs performed a mean of 3.7 years later. In addition they completed a questionnaire with the same baseline questions concerning back pain and activities of daily living. The presence of prevalent and incident vertebral fracture was defined using established morphometric criteria. The data were analyzed using logistic regression with back pain or disability (present or absent) at follow-up as the outcome variable with adjustment made for the baseline value of the variable. The study included 2,260 women, mean age 62.2 years. The mean time between baseline and follow-up survey was 5.0 years. Two hundred and forty participants had prevalent fractures at the baseline survey, and 85 developed incident fractures during follow-up. After adjustment for age, center, and the baseline level of disability, compared with those without baseline prevalent fracture, those with a prevalent fracture (odds ratio [OR] = 1.4; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.0 to 2.0) or an incident fracture (OR = 1.7; 95% CI, 0.9 to 3.2) were more likely to report disability at follow-up, though the confidence intervals embraced unity. Those with both a prevalent and incident fracture, however, were significantly more likely to report disability at follow-up (OR = 3.1; 95% CI, 1.4 to 7.0). After adjustment for age, center, and frequency of back pain at baseline, compared with those without baseline vertebral fracture, those with a prevalent fracture were no more likely to report back pain at follow-up (OR = 1.2; 95% CI, 0.8 to 1.7). There was a small increased risk among those with a preexisting fracture who had sustained an incident fracture during follow-up (OR = 1.6; 95% CI, 0.6 to 4.1) though the confidence intervals embraced unity. In conclusion, although there was no significant increase in the level of back pain an average of 5 years following identification of radiographic vertebral fracture, women who suffered a further fracture during follow-up experienced substantial levels of disability with impairment in key physical functions of independent living.

Activities of Daily Living↗
PubMed2003

Health-related quality of life and radiographic vertebral fracture.

BACKGROUND: Vertebral fractures are associated with back pain and disability; however, relatively little is known about the impact of radiographic vertebral fractures on quality of life in population samples. The aim of this study was to determine the impact of a recent radiographic vertebral fracture on health-related quality of life (HRQoL). METHODS: Men and women aged 50 years and over were recruited from population registers in 12 European centers. Subjects completed an interviewer-administered questionnaire and had lateral spine radiographs performed. Subjects in these centers were followed prospectively and had repeat spinal radiographs performed a mean of 3.8 years later. Prevalent deformities were defined using established morphometric criteria, and incident vertebral fractures by both morphometric criteria and qualitative assessment. For each incident fracture case, three controls matched for age, gender, and center were selected: one with a prevalent deformity (at baseline) and two without prevalent deformities. All subjects were interviewed or completed a postal questionnaire instrument which included Short Form 12 (SF-12), the EQ-5D (former EuroQol), and the quality of life questionnaire of the International Osteoporosis Foundation (QUALEFFO). The median time from the second spinal radiograph until the quality of life survey was 1.9 years. Comparison between cases and their matched controls was undertaken using the signed rank test. RESULTS: 73 subjects with incident vertebral fracture (cases), mean age 64.8 years (of whom 23 had a baseline deformity), and 196 controls, mean age 63.9 years (of whom 60 had a baseline deformity), were studied. There were strong correlations between the domain scores for each of the three instruments. There was no statistically significant difference in any of the domain scores between cases and those controls with a prevalent deformity. However, compared with the controls without a prevalent deformity the cases had significantly impaired quality of life as determined using the total QUALEFFO score (38.2 vs 33.7), the physical component score of the SF-12 (39.9 vs 43.7) and the health status score of the EQ-5D (62.3 vs 69.9). When the analysis was repeated after stratification of the cases by baseline deformity status (i.e., cases with and without a prevalent deformity at baseline), cases with a prevalent deformity had impaired quality of life compared with their matched controls, both with and without a prevalent deformity. In contrast there was no significant difference in quality of life among the cases without a prevalent deformity and either control group. CONCLUSIONS: In this population-based study a recent vertebral fracture was associated with impairment in quality of life, though this was mainly among those who had sustained a previous vertebral deformity.

Aged↗
PubMed2003

Determinants of incident vertebral fracture in men and women: results from the European Prospective Osteoporosis Study (EPOS).

The aim of this analysis was to determine the influence of lifestyle, anthropometric and reproductive factors on the subsequent risk of incident vertebral fracture in men and women aged 50-79 years. Subjects were recruited from population registers from 28 centers across Europe. At baseline, they completed an interviewer-administered questionnaire and had lateral thoraco-lumbar spine radiographs performed. Repeat spinal radiographs were performed a mean of 3.8 years later. Incident vertebral fractures were defined morphometrically and also qualitatively by an experienced radiologist. Poisson regression was used to determine the influence of the baseline risk factor variables on the occurrence of incident vertebral fracture. A total of 3173 men (mean age 63.1 years) and 3402 women (mean age 62.2 years) contributed data to the analysis. In total there were 193 incident morphometric and 224 qualitative fractures. In women, an age at menarche 16 years or older was associated with an increased risk of vertebral fracture (RR = 1.80; 95%CI 1.24, 2.63), whilst use of hormonal replacement was protective (RR = 0.58; 95%CI 0.34, 0.99). None of the lifestyle factors studied including smoking, alcohol intake, physical activity or milk consumption showed any consistent associations with incident vertebral fracture. In men and women, increasing body weight and body mass index were associated with a reduced risk of vertebral fracture though, apart from body mass index in men, the confidence intervals embraced unity. For most variables the strengths of the associations observed were similar using the qualitative and morphometric approaches to fracture definition. In conclusion our data suggest that modification of other lifestyle risk factors is unlikely to have a major impact on the population occurrence of vertebral fractures. The important biological mechanisms underlying vertebral fracture risk need to be explored using new investigational strategies.

Age Distribution↗
PubMed2003

Determinants of the size of incident vertebral deformities in European men and women in the sixth to ninth decades of age: the European Prospective Osteoporosis Study (EPOS).

UNLABELLED: More severe vertebral fractures have more personal impact. In the European Prospective Osteoporosis Study, more severe vertebral collapse was predictable from prior fracture characteristics. Subjects with bi-concave or crush fractures at baseline had a 2-fold increase in incident fracture size and thus increased risk of a disabling future fracture. INTRODUCTION: According to Euler's buckling theory, loss of horizontal trabeculae in vertebrae increases the risk of fracture and suggests that the extent of vertebral collapse will be increased in proportion. We tested the hypothesis that the characteristics of a baseline deformity would influence the size of a subsequent deformity. METHODS: In 207 subjects participating in the European Prospective Osteoporosis Study who suffered an incident spine fracture in a previously normal vertebra, we estimated loss of volume (fracture size) from plane film images of all vertebral bodies that were classified as having a new fracture. The sum of the three vertebral heights (anterior, mid-body, and posterior) obtained at follow-up was subtracted from the sum of the same measures at baseline. Each of the summed height loss for vertebrae with a McCloskey-Kanis deformity on the second film was expressed as a percentage. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: In univariate models, the numbers of baseline deformities and the clinical category of the most severe baseline deformity were each significantly associated with the size of the most severe incident fracture and with the cumulated sum of all vertebral height losses. In multivariate modeling, age and the clinical category of the baseline deformity (crush > bi-concave > uni-concave > wedge) were the strongest determinants of both more severe and cumulative height loss. Baseline biconcave and crush fractures were associated at follow-up with new fractures that were approximately twice as large as those seen with other types of deformity or who previously had undeformed spines. In conclusion, the characteristics of a baseline vertebral deformity determines statistically the magnitude of vertebral body volume lost when a subsequent fracture occurs. Because severity of fracture and number of fractures are determinants of impact, the results should improve prediction of the future personal impact of osteoporosis once a baseline prevalent deformity has been identified.

Aged↗
PubMed2002

Incidence of limb fracture across Europe: results from the European Prospective Osteoporosis Study (EPOS).

The aim of this population-based prospective study was to determine the incidence of limb fracture by site and gender in different regions of Europe. Men and women aged 50-79 years were recruited from population registers in 31 European centers. Subjects were invited to attend for an interviewer-administered questionnaire and lateral spinal radiographs. Subjects were subsequently followed up using an annual postal questionnaire which included questions concerning the occurrence of new fractures. Self-reported fractures were confirmed where possible by radiograph, attending physician or subject interview. There were 6451 men and 6936 women followed for a median of 3.0 years. During this time there were 140 incident limb fractures in men and 391 in women. The age-adjusted incidence of any limb fracture was 7.3/1000 person-years [pyrs] in men and 19 per 1000 pyrs in women, equivalent to a 2.5 times excess in women. Among women, the incidence of hip, humerus and distal forearm fracture, though not 'other' limb fracture, increased with age, while in men only the incidence of hip and humerus fracture increased with age. Among women, there was evidence of significant variation in the occurrence of hip, distal forearm and humerus fractures across Europe, with incidence rates higher in Scandinavia than in other European regions, though for distal forearm fracture the incidence in east Europe was similar to that observed in Scandinavia. Among men, there was no evidence of significant geographic variation in the occurrence of these fractures. This is the first large population-based study to characterize the incidence of limb fracture in men and women over 50 years of age across Europe. There are substantial differences in the descriptive epidemiology of limb fracture by region and gender.

Age Distribution↗
PubMed2002

Defining incident vertebral deformities in population studies: a comparison of morphometric criteria.

Various morphometric criteria have been used to define incident vertebral deformity. The aim of this analysis was to compare the relative validity of two established criteria and a novel method in which these criteria were combined. Men and women aged 50 years and over were recruited from population registers across Europe and had lateral spinal radiographs performed using a standard protocol. A subsample of individuals had bone mineral density (BMD) at the spine or femoral neck. Subjects were followed prospectively and a subsample had repeat spinal radiographs a median of 3.8 years after the baseline survey. All radiographs were evaluated morphometrically in the radiology coordinating center in Berlin. Anterior, middle and posterior height were recorded in all vertebrae from T4 to L4. On the basis of these morphometric measurements incident vertebral deformity was defined using one of three methods: (i) the change method - a change in any vertebral height of 20% or more between films, plus the additional requirement that a vertebral body have changed in absolute vertebral height by 4 mm or more; (ii) the point prevalence method, where a vertebra satisfies criteria for a prevalent deformity (McCloskey-Kanis) on the follow-up, though not the baseline film; (iii) a combination of the height reduction and the point prevalence criteria. Paired films were also evaluated qualitatively by an experienced radiologist for the presence of incident vertebral deformity. Logistic regression was used to compare the three morphometric methods using known risk factors for vertebral deformity including age, baseline vertebral deformity and BMD, and the qualitative evaluation. Computer simulation was used to determine the potential degree of bias and loss of statistical efficiency due to misclassification for each of the three methods, using the radiologist's assessment of incident deformity as the reference. Six thousand eight hundred subjects were included in this analysis. Of these 450 had sustained an incident vertebral deformity according to at least one of the three morphometric methods. The distribution of risk factors was similar in the subjects who satisfied only one morphometric criterion and those who satisfied neither. However, the subjects who satisfied both criteria had a very different distribution of risk factors: they were older, more likely to be female, more likely to have had a previous vertebral deformity and more likely to have an incident fracture in the opinion of an experienced radiologist. Using computer simulation, at low incidence levels, combining the criteria led to greater statistical efficiency and less bias in estimating associations with risk factors. Thus in this analysis the combination of the point prevalence and 20% change in height criterion for defining incident vertebral deformity showed a stronger relationship with clinical risk factors than either single criterion. Its application in population-based studies would increase the likelihood of detecting risk factors for incident vertebral deformity for a given sample size.

Age Factors↗
PubMed2002

Is the predictive power of previous fractures for new spine and non-spine fractures associated with biochemical evidence of altered bone remodelling? The EPOS study. European Prospective Osteoporosis Study.

BACKGROUND: In the European Prospective Osteoporosis Study (EPOS), a past spine fracture increased risk of an incident fracture 3.6 - 12-fold even after adjusting for BMD. We examined the possibility that biochemical marker levels were associated with this unexplained BMD-independent element of fracture risk. METHODS: Each of 182 cases in EPOS of spine or non-spine fracture that occurred in 3.8 years of follow-up was matched by age, sex and study centre with two randomly assigned never-fractured controls and one case of past fracture. Analytes measured blind were: osteocalcin, bone-specific alkaline phosphatase, total alkaline phosphatase, serum creatinine, calcium, phosphate and albumin, together with the collagen cross-links degradation products serum CTS and urine CTX. Most subjects also had bone density measured by DXA. RESULTS: Cases who had recent fractures did not differ in marker levels from cases who had their last fracture more than 3 years previously. No statistically significant effect of recent fracture was found for any marker except osteocalcin, which was 17.6% lower in recent peripheral cases compared to unfractured controls (p<0.05) and this was independent of BMD. CONCLUSION: Past fracture as a risk indicator for future fracture is not strongly mediated through increased bone turnover.

Aged↗