Revealing the ghost in the machine: using spectral analysis to understand the influence of noise on population dynamics.
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Animals↗
Biomedical subjects
Tim G Benton
Publications and source records attributed to Tim G Benton.
Complex population dynamics and complex causation: devils, details and demography.
Population dynamics result from the interplay of density-independent and density-dependent processes. Understanding this interplay is important, especially for being able to predict near-term population trajectories for management. In recent years, the study of model systems-experimental, observational and theoretical-has shed considerable light on the way that the both density-dependent and -independent aspects of the environment affect population dynamics via impacting on the organism's life history and therefore demography. These model-based approaches suggest that (i) individuals in different states differ in their demographic performance, (ii) these differences generate structure that can fluctuate independently of current total population size and so can influence the dynamics in important ways, (iii) individuals are strongly affected by both current and past environments, even when the past environments may be in previous generations and (iv) dynamics are typically complex and transient due to environmental noise perturbing complex population structures. For understanding population dynamics of any given system, we suggest that 'the devil is in the detail'. Experimental dissection of empirical systems is providing important insights into the details of the drivers of demographic responses and therefore dynamics and should also stimulate theory that incorporates relevant biological mechanism.
Adaptation, Physiological↗
How effective are maternal effects at having effects?
The well studied trade-off between offspring size and offspring number assumes that offspring fitness increases with increasing per-offspring investment. Where mothers differ genetically or exhibit plastic variation in reproductive effort, there can be variation in per capita investment in offspring, and via this trade-off, variation in fecundity. Variation in per capita investment will affect juvenile performance directly--a classical maternal effect--while variation in fecundity will also affect offspring performance by altering the offsprings' competitive environment. The importance of this trade-off, while a focus of evolutionary research, is not often considered in discussions about population dynamics. Here, we use a factorial experiment to determine what proportion of variation in offspring performance can be ascribed to maternal effects and what proportion to the competitive environment linked to the size-number trade-off. Our results suggest that classical maternal effects are significant, but that in our system, the competitive environment, which is linked to maternal environments by fecundity, can be a far more substantial influence.
Acari↗
Context-dependent intergenerational effects: the interaction between past and present environments and its effect on population dynamics.
Intergenerational effects arise when parents' actions influence the reproduction and survival of their offspring and possibly later descendants. Models suggest that intergenerational effects have important implications for both population dynamical patterns and the evolution of life-history traits. However, these will depend on the nature and duration of intergenerational effects. Here we show that manipulating parental food environments of soil mites produced intergenerational effects that were still detectable in the life histories of descendents three generations later. Intergenerational effects varied in different environments and from one generation to the next. In low-food environments, variation in egg size altered a trade-off between age and size at maturity and had little effect on the size of eggs produced in subsequent generations. Consequently, intergenerational effects decreased over time. In contrast, in high-food environments, variation in egg size predominantly influenced a trade-off between fecundity and adult survival and generated increasing variation in egg size. As a result, the persistence and significance of intergenerational effects varied between high- and low-food environments. Context-dependent intergenerational effects can therefore have complex but important effects on population dynamics.
Acaridae↗
Causes and consequences of animal dispersal strategies: relating individual behaviour to spatial dynamics.
Knowledge of the ecological and evolutionary causes of dispersal can be crucial in understanding the behaviour of spatially structured populations, and predicting how species respond to environmental change. Despite the focus of much theoretical research, simplistic assumptions regarding the dispersal process are still made. Dispersal is usually regarded as an unconditional process although in many cases fitness gains of dispersal are dependent on environmental factors and individual state. Condition-dependent dispersal strategies will often be superior to unconditional, fixed strategies. In addition, dispersal is often collapsed into a single parameter, despite it being a process composed of three interdependent stages: emigration, inter-patch movement and immigration, each of which may display different condition dependencies. Empirical studies have investigated correlates of these stages, emigration in particular, providing evidence for the prevalence of conditional dispersal strategies. Ill-defined use of the term 'dispersal', for movement across many different spatial scales, further hinders making general conclusions and relating movement correlates to consequences at the population level. Logistical difficulties preclude a detailed study of dispersal for many species, however incorporating unrealistic dispersal assumptions in spatial population models may yield inaccurate and costly predictions. Further studies are necessary to explore the importance of incorporating specific condition-dependent dispersal strategies for evolutionary and population dynamic predictions.
Animals↗
Age and size at maturity: sex, environmental variability and developmental thresholds.
In most organisms, transitions between different life-history stages occur later and at smaller sizes as growth conditions deteriorate. Day and Rowe recently proposed that this pattern could be explained by the existence of developmental thresholds (minimum sizes or levels of condition below which transitions are unable to proceed). The developmental-threshold model predicts that the reaction norm of age and size at maturity will rotate in an anticlockwise manner from positive to a shallow negative slope if: (i) initial body size or condition is reduced; and/or (ii) some individuals encounter poor growth conditions at increasingly early developmental stages. We tested these predictions by rearing replicated populations of soil mites Sancassania berlesei (Michael) under different growth conditions. High-food environments produced a vertical relationship between age and size at maturity. The slope became increasingly shallow as food was reduced. By contrast, high food in the maternal environment reduced the slope of the reaction norm of age and size at maturity, whereas low food increased it. Overall, the reaction norm of age and size at maturity in S. berlesei was significantly nonlinear and differed for males and females. We describe how growth conditions, mother's environment and sex determine age and size at maturity in S. berlesei.
Acaridae↗
Talkin' 'bout my generation: environmental variability and cohort effects.
In variable environments, it is probable that environmental conditions in the past can influence demographic performance now. Cohort effects occur when these delayed life-history effects are synchronized among groups of individuals in a population. Here we show how plasticity in density-dependent demographic traits throughout the life cycle can lead to cohort effects and that there can be substantial population dynamic consequences of these effects. We show experimentally that density and food conditions early in development can influence subsequent juvenile life-history traits. We also show that conditions early in development can interact with conditions at maturity to shape future adult performance. In fact, conditions such as food availability and density at maturity, like conditions early in development, can generate cohort effects in mature stages. Based on these data, and on current theory about the effects of plasticity generated by historical environments, we make predictions about the consequences of such changes on density-dependent demography and on mite population dynamics. We use a stochastic cohort effects model to generate a range of population dynamics. In accordance with the theory, we find the predicted changes in the strength of density dependence and associated changes in population dynamics and population variability.
Age Factors↗
Trophic interactions and population growth rates: describing patterns and identifying mechanisms.
While the concept of population growth rate has been of central importance in the development of the theory of population dynamics, few empirical studies consider the intrinsic growth rate in detail, let alone how it may vary within and between populations of the same species. In an attempt to link theory with data we take two approaches. First, we address the question 'what growth rate patterns does theory predict we should see in time-series?' The models make a number of predictions, which in general are supported by a comparative study between time-series of harvesting data from 352 red grouse populations. Variations in growth rate between grouse populations were associated with factors that reflected the quality and availability of the main food plant of the grouse. However, while these results support predictions from theory, they provide no clear insight into the mechanisms influencing reductions in population growth rate and regulation. In the second part of the paper, we consider the results of experiments, first at the individual level and then at the population level, to identify the important mechanisms influencing changes in individual productivity and population growth rate. The parasitic nematode Trichostrongylus tenuis is found to have an important influence on productivity, and when incorporated into models with their patterns of distribution between individuals has a destabilizing effect and generates negative growth rates. The hypothesis that negative growth rates at the population level were caused by parasites was demonstrated by a replicated population level experiment. With a sound and tested model framework we then explore the interaction with other natural enemies and show that in general they tend to stabilize variations in growth rate. Interestingly, the models show selective predators that remove heavily infected individuals can release the grouse from parasite-induced regulation and allow equilibrium populations to rise. By contrast, a tick-borne virus that killed chicks simply leads to a reduction in the equilibrium. When humans take grouse they do not appear to stabilize populations and this may be because many of the infective stages are available for infection before harvesting commences. In our opinion, an understanding of growth rates and population dynamics is best achieved through a mechanistic approach that includes a sound experimental approach with the development of models. Models can be tested further to explore how the community of predators and others interact with their prey.
Animals↗