New developments in the epidemiology of cancer prognosis: traditional and molecular predictors of treatment response and survival.
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Biomedical subjects
Publications and source records attributed to Timothy R Rebbeck.
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Bilateral risk-reducing oophorectomy (BRRO) is widely used for cancer risk reduction in women with BRCA1 and BRCA2 (BRCA1/2) mutations. BRRO significantly reduces breast cancer risk by approximately 50% and ovarian cancer risk by 85% to 95%, but it may be accompanied by menopausal symptoms, impaired quality of life, and accelerated bone loss. Therefore, decisions regarding the timing of BRRO, the risks and benefits of a simultaneous hysterectomy, and the use of hormone replacement therapy (HRT) must be made in concert with the patient and individualized to their circumstances. However, recent data demonstrate that HRT after BRRO in unaffected premenopausal women does not negate the breast cancer risk reduction that BRRO provides. This article reviews the studies regarding BRRO in BRCA1/2 mutation carriers, with particular focus on the use of HRT.
Polymorphisms in six genes involved in nucleotide excision repair of DNA were examined in a large population-based case-control study of melanoma. Genotyping was conducted for 2485 patients with a single primary melanoma (controls) and 1238 patients with second or higher order primary melanomas (cases). Patients were ascertained from nine geographic regions in Australia, Canada, Italy and the United States. Positive associations were observed for XPD 312 Asn/Asn versus Asp/Asp [odds ratio (OR) = 1.5, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.2-1.9] and XPD 751 Gln/Gln versus Lys/Lys (OR = 1.4, 95% CI 1.1-1.7) genotypes and melanoma. The combined XPD Asn (A) 312 + Gln (C) 751 haplotype was significantly more frequent in cases (32%) compared with controls (29%) (P = 0.003) and risk of melanoma increased significantly with one and two copies of the haplotype (ORs 1.2, 95% CI 1.0-1.4, and 1.6, 95% CI 1.2-2.0, trend P = 0.002). No significant associations were observed for HR23B codon 249, XPG codon 1104, XPC codon 939, XPF codon 415, XPF nt 2063, ERCC6 codon 1213 or ERCC6 codon 1230. ORs for XPD and XPC genotypes were stronger for melanoma diagnosed at an early age, but tests for interaction were not statistically significant. The results provide further evidence for a role of XPD in the etiology of melanoma.
Women with BRCA1 mutations are at an elevated risk for breast cancer. AIB1 (NCOA3/SRC3) genotype and smoking may alter this risk. We examined the differences in breast cancer risk by AIB1 polyglutamine repeat polymorphism and pre-diagnosis smoking habits for BRCA1 mutation carriers to determine if there was an interaction between smoking and AIB1 genotype. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression was used with 316 female BRCA1 mutation carriers to model breast cancer risk. Ever having smoked was associated with a decreased breast cancer risk [Hazard Ratio (HR) = 0.63, 95% CI, 0.47-0.87]. A dose-response relationship between number of pack-years smoked and breast cancer risk was also found for women who smoked <20 pack years of cigarettes (HR = 0.72, 95% CI, 0.52-1.00) and for women who smoked >/=20 pack years (HR = 0.41, 95% CI, 0.23-0.71; P for trend = 0.0007). Women with a 28 repeat allele for AIB1 had a significantly reduced risk of breast cancer (HR = 0.72, 95% CI, 0.51-1.00). Women who smoked >/=20 pack-years with a 28 repeat allele had an even greater reduced risk of breast cancer (HR = 0.19, 95% CI, 0.07-0.54) compared to women who were never smokers with no 28 allele. Since AIB1 appears to modulate the effect of endogenous hormones via the estrogen receptor, and smoking affects circulating hormone levels, these results support evidence that steroid hormones play an important role in breast carcinogenesis in BRCA1 mutation carriers, and suggest mechanisms for developing novel cancer prevention strategies for BRCA1 mutation carriers.
BACKGROUND: Germline mutations in the CDKN2A gene have been linked to melanoma incidence in many families with multiple cases of the disease. Previous studies of multiple-case families have indicated that the lifetime risk (i.e., penetrance) of melanoma in CDKN2A mutation carriers is very high, ranging from 58% in Europe to 91% in Australia by age 80 years. In this study, we examined lifetime melanoma risk among CDKN2A mutation carriers using carriers who were identified in a population-based study of melanoma. METHODS: Probands for the study were incident case patients with either first or subsequent melanoma who were identified in nine geographic regions in Australia, Canada, the United States, and Italy. A total of 3626 probands (53% participation rate) with adequate DNA for analysis were recruited and genotyped for CDKN2A mutations. From the 3550 probands whose DNA could be amplified by polymerase chain reaction of CDKN2A exons 1alpha, 2, and 3 and surrounding regions, 65 mutation carriers were identified. Melanoma histories in first-degree relatives of these probands were used to calculate the lifetime risk in CDKN2A mutation carriers using the kin-cohort method. RESULTS: The risk of melanoma in CDKN2A mutation carriers was approximately 14% (95% CI = 8% to 22%) by age 50 years, 24% (95% CI = 15% to 34%) by age 70 years, and 28% (95% CI = 18% to 40%) by age 80 years. Eighteen probands had three or more first-degree relatives with melanoma, but only one was a carrier of a CDKN2A mutation. CONCLUSIONS: CDKN2A mutation carriers in the general population have a much lower risk of melanoma than that suggested by estimates obtained from multiple-case families. The preponderance of familial clustering of melanoma occurs in families without identifiable mutations in CDKN2A.
PURPOSE: Bilateral prophylactic oophorectomy (BPO) is widely used for cancer risk reduction in women with BRCA1/2 mutations. Many premenopausal women choose to take hormone replacement therapy (HRT) after undergoing BPO to abrogate immediate symptoms of surgically-induced menopause. Thus, we evaluated whether the breast cancer risk reduction conferred by BPO in BRCA1/2 mutation carriers is altered by use of post-BPO HRT. METHODS: We identified a prospective cohort of 462 women with disease-associated germline BRCA1/2 mutations at 13 medical centers to evaluate breast cancer risk after BPO with and without HRT. We determined the incidence of breast cancer in 155 women who had undergone BPO and in 307 women who had not undergone BPO on whom we had complete information on HRT use. Postoperative follow-up was 3.6 years. RESULTS: Consistent with previous reports, BPO was significantly associated with breast cancer risk reduction overall (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.40; 95%CI, 0.18 to 0.92). Using mutation carriers without BPO or HRT as the referent group, HRT of any type after BPO did not significantly alter the reduction in breast cancer risk associated with BPO (HR = 0.37; 95% CI, 0.14 to 0.96). CONCLUSION: Short-term HRT use does not negate the protective effect of BPO on subsequent breast cancer risk in BRCA1/2 mutation carriers.
INTRODUCTION: Estrogens are important in breast cancer development. SULT1A1 and UGT1A1 catalyze estrogen metabolism and are polymorphic. The SULT1A1*2 protein exhibits low activity, and a TA repeat within the UGT1A1 promoter alters the level of expression of the protein. We hypothesized that the SULT1A1*2 allozyme has decreased capacity to sulfate estrogens, that the SULT1A1*2 allele conferred increased capacity of cells to proliferate in response to estrogens, and that individuals with the variant SULT1A1 and UGT1A1 genotypes exhibited different breast tumor characteristics. METHODS: The capacity for SULT1A1*2 to sulfate 17beta-estradiol and the capacity for cells expressing SULT1A1*1 or SULT1A1*2 to proliferate in response to 17beta-estradiol was evaluated. A case-series study was performed in a total of 210 women with incident breast cancer, including 177 Caucasians, 25 African-Americans and eight women of other ethnic background. The SULT1A1 and UGT1A1 genotypes were determined and a logistic regression model was used to analyze genotype-phenotype associations. RESULTS: We determined that the SULT1A1*1/*1 high-activity genotype was associated with tumor size or=60 years (odds ratio = 3.70, 95% confidence interval = 1.33-10.00, P = 0.01). Individuals with both SULT1A1 and UGT1A1 high-activity genotypes had low tumor grade (odds ratio = 2.56, 95% confidence interval = 1.04-6.25, P = 0.05). Upon stratification by estrogen receptor status, significant associations were observed predominantly in estrogen receptor-negative tumors. CONCLUSION: The data suggest that genetic variation in SULT1A1 and UGT1A1 may influence breast cancer characteristics and might be important for breast cancer prognosis.
PURPOSE: Adjuvant chemotherapy cures only a subset of women with nonmetastatic breast cancer. Genotypes in drug-metabolizing enzymes, including functional polymorphisms in cytochrome P450 (CYP) and glutathione S-transferases (GST), may predict treatment-related outcomes. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We examined CYP3A4*1B, CYP3A5*3, and deletions in GST mu (GSTM1) and theta (GSTT1), as well as a priori-defined combinations of polymorphisms in these genes. Using a cohort of 90 node-positive breast cancer patients who received anthracycline-based adjuvant chemotherapy followed by high-dose multiagent chemotherapy with stem-cell rescue, we estimated the effect of genotype and other known prognostic factors on disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS). RESULTS: Patients who carried homozygous CYP3A4*1B and CYP3A5*3 variants and did not carry homozygous deletions in both GSTM1 and GSTT1 (denoted low-drug genotype group) had a 4.9-fold poorer DFS (P = .021) and a four-fold poorer OS (P = .031) compared with individuals who did not carry any CYP3A4*1B or CYP3A5*3 variants but had deletions in both GSTT1 and GSTM1 (denoted high-drug genotype group). After adjustment for other significant prognostic factors, the low-drug genotype group retained a significantly poorer DFS (hazard ratio [HR] = 4.9; 95% CI, 1.7 to 14.6; P = .004) and OS (HR = 4.8; 95% CI, 1.8 to 12.9; P = .002) compared with the high- and intermediate-drug combined genotype group. In the multivariate model, having low-drug genotype group status had a greater impact on clinical outcome than estrogen receptor status. CONCLUSION: Combined genotypes at CYP3A4, CYP3A5, GSTM1, and GSTT1 influence the probability of treatment failure after high-dose adjuvant chemotherapy for node-positive breast cancer.
Population stratification is a form of confounding by ethnicity that may cause bias to effect estimates and inflate test statistics in genetic association studies. Unlinked genetic markers have been used to adjust for test statistics, but their use in correcting biased effect estimates has not been addressed. We evaluated the potential of bias correction that could be achieved by a single null marker (M) in studies involving one candidate gene (G). When the distribution of M varied greatly across ethnicities, controlling for M in a logistic regression model substantially reduced biases on odds ratio estimates. When M had same distributions as G across ethnicities, biases were further reduced or eliminated by subtracting the regression coefficient of M from the coefficient of G in the model, which was fitted either with or without a multiplicative interaction term between M and G. Correction of bias due to population stratification depended specifically on the distributions of G and M, the difference between baseline disease risks across ethnicities, and whether G had an effect on disease risk or not. Our results suggested that marker choice and the specific treatment of that marker in analysis greatly influenced bias correction.
OBJECTIVES AND METHODS: The Val108/158Met polymorphism in the gene that encodes COMT, a dopamine metabolizing enzyme, results in a three- to four-fold reduction in COMT activity. To determine if the lower activity Met allele of COMT was associated with smoking cessation in women, we used two independent studies: a population-based case--control study and a nicotine replacement clinical trial. RESULTS: In the case--control study, women with two Met alleles were significantly more likely to be ex-smokers than current smokers [OR=1.82, 95% CI (1.05, 3.17), P=0.03]. In the nicotine replacement clinical trial, among women, the Met/Met genotype was associated with a higher probability of smoking cessation based on both point prevalence and prolonged abstinence outcomes [OR=2.96, 95% CI (1.07, 8.14), P=0.04; OR=3.23, 95% CI (1.13, 9.20), P=0.03, respectively]. CONCLUSIONS: This first report of a significant association between COMT Val108/158Met and smoking cessation suggests that COMT variation has an effect on smoking behavior in women.
Reported associations of ELAC2/HPC2, RNASEL/HPC1, and MSR1 with prostate cancer have been inconsistent and understudied in African Americans. We evaluated the role of 16 sequence variants in these genes with prostate cancer using 888 European American and 131 African American cases, and 473 European American and 163 African American, controls. We observed significant differences in ELAC2, RNASEL, and MSR1 allele frequencies by race. However, we did not observe significant associations between prostate cancer and any variants examined for both races combined. Associations were observed when stratified by race, family history, or disease severity. European American men homozygous for MSR1 IVS7delTTA had an elevated risk for localized stage [odds ratio, (OR), 3.5; 95% confidence interval (95% CI), 1.4-6.9], low-grade (OR, 3.2; 95% CI, 1.4-7.3) disease overall, and with low-grade (OR, 2.9; 95% CI, 1.2-7.2) or late-stage disease (OR, 5.2; 95% CI, 1.1-25.7) in family history-negative African Americans. MSR1 Arg293X was associated with family history-negative high-grade disease (OR, 4.0; 95% CI, 1.1-14.1) in European Americans. RNASEL Arg462Gln was associated with low-grade (OR, 1.5; 95% CI, 1.04-2.2) and early-stage (OR, 1.5; 95% CI, 1.02-2.1) disease in family history-negative European Americans. In family history-positive individuals, Arg462Gln was inversely associated with low-grade (OR, 0.43; 95% CI, 0.21-0.88) and low-stage (OR, 0.46; 95% CI, 0.22-0.95) disease. In African Americans, Arg462Gln was associated with positive family history high-stage disease (OR, 14.8; 95% CI, 1.6-135.7). Meta-analyses revealed significant associations of prostate cancer with MSR1 IVS7delTTA, -14,742 A>G, and Arg293X in European Americans; Asp174Tyr in African Americans; RNASEL Arg462Gln in European American's overall and in family history-negative disease; and Glu265X in family history-positive European Americans. Therefore, MSR1 and RNASEL may play a role in prostate cancer progression and severity.
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The CYP3A genes reside on chromosome 7q21 in a multigene cluster. The enzyme products of CYP3A4 and CYP3A43 are involved in testosterone metabolism. CYP3A4 and CYP3A5 have been associated previously with prostate cancer occurrence and severity. To comprehensively examine the effects of these genes on prostate cancer occurrence and severity, we studied 622 incident prostate cancer cases and 396 controls. Substantial and race-specific linkage disequilibrium was observed between CYP3A4 and CYP3A5 in both races but not between other pairs of loci. We found no association of CYP3A5 genotypes with prostate cancer or disease severity. CYP3A43*3 was associated with family history-positive prostate cancer (age- and race-adjusted odds ratio = 5.86, 95% confidence interval, 1.10-31.16). CYP3A4*1B was associated inversely with the probability of having prostate cancer in Caucasians (age-adjusted odds ratio = 0.54, 95% confidence interval, 0.32-0.94). We also observed significant interactions among these loci associated with prostate cancer occurrence and severity. There were statistically significant differences in haplotype frequencies involving these three genes in high-stage cases (P < 0.05) compared with controls. The observation that CYP3A4 and CYP3A43 were associated with prostate cancer, are not in linkage equilibrium, and are both involved in testosterone metabolism, suggest that both CYP3A4*1B and CYP3A43*3 may influence the probability of having prostate cancer and disease severity.
PURPOSE: Data on the efficacy of bilateral prophylactic mastectomy for breast cancer risk reduction in women with BRCA1 and BRCA2 (BRCA1/2) mutations are limited, despite the clinical use of this risk-management strategy. Thus, we estimated the degree of breast cancer risk reduction after surgery in women who carry these mutations. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Four hundred eighty-three women with disease-associated germline BRCA1/2 mutations were studied for the occurrence of breast cancer. Cases were mutation carriers who underwent bilateral prophylactic mastectomy and who were followed prospectively from the time of their center ascertainment and their surgery, with analyses performed for both follow-up periods. Controls were BRCA1/2 mutation carriers with no history of bilateral prophylactic mastectomy matched to cases on gene, center, and year of birth. Both cases and controls were excluded for previous or concurrent diagnosis of breast cancer. Analyses were adjusted for duration of endogenous ovarian hormone exposure, including age at bilateral prophylactic oophorectomy if applicable. RESULTS: Breast cancer was diagnosed in two (1.9%) of 105 women who had bilateral prophylactic mastectomy and in 184 (48.7%) of 378 matched controls who did not have the procedure, with a mean follow-up of 6.4 years. Bilateral prophylactic mastectomy reduced the risk of breast cancer by approximately 95% in women with prior or concurrent bilateral prophylactic oophorectomy and by approximately 90% in women with intact ovaries. CONCLUSION: Bilateral prophylactic mastectomy reduces the risk of breast cancer in women with BRCA1/2 mutations by approximately 90%.
The potential for bias from population stratification (PS) has raised concerns about case-control studies involving admixed ethnicities. We evaluated the potential bias due to PS in relating a binary outcome with a candidate gene under simulated settings where study populations consist of multiple ethnicities. Disease risks were assigned within the range of prostate cancer rates of African Americans reported in SEER registries assuming k=2, 5, or 10 admixed ethnicities. Genotype frequencies were considered in the range of 5-95%. Under a model assuming no genotype effect on disease (odds ratio (OR)=1), the range of observed OR estimates ignoring ethnicity was 0.64-1.55 for k=2, 0.72-1.33 for k=5, and 0.81-1.22 for k=10. When genotype effect on disease was modeled to be OR=2, the ranges of observed OR estimates were 1.28-3.09, 1.43-2.65, and 1.62-2.42 for k=2, 5, and 10 ethnicities, respectively. Our results indicate that the magnitude of bias is small unless extreme differences exist in genotype frequency. Bias due to PS decreases as the number of admixed ethnicities increases. The biases are bounded by the minimum and maximum of all pairwise baseline disease odds ratios across ethnicities. Therefore, bias due to PS alone may be small when baseline risk differences are small within major categories of admixed ethnicity, such as African Americans.
OBJECTIVE: Melanoma has been shown in numerous studies to be associated with sun exposure, and with host phenotypic factors of genetic origin. In this study we use information from a large series of incident cases of melanoma from an international population-based study to examine the patterns of incidence of melanoma in the first-degree relatives of these cases. METHODS: A total of 2508 incident cases of melanoma provided information on basic demographic data and pigmentary characteristics, in addition to detailed information on family history of melanoma. These data were used to examine the incidence rates ratios of melanoma in the relatives of cases in relation to population rates, and also with respect to phenotypic characteristics of the probands that have been shown to be associated with melanoma: mole counts, hair color, eye color, and skin sensitivity to the sun. RESULTS: The incidence rates reflect the underlying patterns of incidence in the source populations, with generally higher rates in the Australian sample, low rates in Italy, and intermediate rates in the USA and Canada. Also, rates are higher in men than in women, except at very young ages. Phenotypic characteristics of the probands were only weakly associated with the observed rates in the relatives although there is a strong inverse association with age at diagnosis. Cumulative risk of melanoma rises to 6.9% (6.1%) at age 80 in male (female) first-degree relatives of cases, and to 10.8% (9.5%) in relatives of cases diagnosed before age 50. CONCLUSIONS: Relatives of cases diagnosed with melanoma are at considerable lifetime risk of the disease, especially if the case is diagnosed at a young age.
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The etiology of cancer is likely to involve the effects of inherited genotypes at various points in the multistage process of carcinogenesis. For example, inherited genotypes could influence propensity to be exposed to carcinogens, generation of somatic mutations that initiate tumours, determination of a tumour's natural history or clinical prognosis and response to chemoprevention and treatment. Classes of inherited genotypes involved in multistage carcinogenesis are defined here to help focus the role inherited genotypes may have in the etiology and prevention of cancer. Knowledge of inherited genotype may assist in elucidating the nature and timing of specific genetic events in carcinogenesis, identify exposures that correlate with specific steps in carcinogenesis, lead to the development of risk assessment models and target relevant biochemical pathways for the development of preventive or therapeutic interventions.