A watery arms race.
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Biomedical subjects
Publications and source records attributed to V Smetacek.
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Motivated by the rapid increase in atmospheric CO2 due to human activities since the Industrial Revolution, several international scientific research programs have analyzed the role of individual components of the Earth system in the global carbon cycle. Our knowledge of the carbon cycle within the oceans, terrestrial ecosystems, and the atmosphere is sufficiently extensive to permit us to conclude that although natural processes can potentially slow the rate of increase in atmospheric CO2, there is no natural "savior" waiting to assimilate all the anthropogenically produced CO2 in the coming century. Our knowledge is insufficient to describe the interactions between the components of the Earth system and the relationship between the carbon cycle and other biogeochemical and climatological processes. Overcoming this limitation requires a systems approach.
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Changes in oceanic primary production, linked to changes in the network of global biogeochemical cycles, have profoundly influenced the geochemistry of Earth for over 3 billion years. In the contemporary ocean, photosynthetic carbon fixation by marine phytoplankton leads to formation of approximately 45 gigatons of organic carbon per annum, of which 16 gigatons are exported to the ocean interior. Changes in the magnitude of total and export production can strongly influence atmospheric CO2 levels (and hence climate) on geological time scales, as well as set upper bounds for sustainable fisheries harvest. The two fluxes are critically dependent on geophysical processes that determine mixed-layer depth, nutrient fluxes to and within the ocean, and food-web structure. Because the average turnover time of phytoplankton carbon in the ocean is on the order of a week or less, total and export production are extremely sensitive to external forcing and consequently are seldom in steady state. Elucidating the biogeochemical controls and feedbacks on primary production is essential to understanding how oceanic biota responded to and affected natural climatic variability in the geological past, and will respond to anthropogenically influenced changes in coming decades. One of the most crucial feedbacks results from changes in radiative forcing on the hydrological cycle, which influences the aeolian iron flux and, in turn, affects nitrogen fixation and primary production in the oceans.
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