Biomedical subjects

Vladimir Shkolnikov

Publications and source records attributed to Vladimir Shkolnikov.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

PubMed2005

World mortality 1950-2000: divergence replaces convergence from the late 1980s.

OBJECTIVE: We sought to investigate to what extent worldwide improvements in mortality over the past 50 years have been accompanied by convergence in the mortality experience of the world's population. METHODS: We have adopted a novel approach to the objective measurement of global mortality convergence. The global mortality distribution at a point in time is quantified using a dispersion measure of mortality (DMM). Trends in the DMM indicate global mortality convergence and divergence. The analysis uses United Nations data for 1950-2000 for all 152 countries with populations of at least 1 million in 2000 (99.7% of the world's population in 2000). FINDINGS: The DMM for life expectancy at birth declined until the late 1980s but has since increased, signalling a shift from global convergence to divergence in life expectancy at birth. In contrast, the DMM for infant mortality indicates continued convergence since 1950. CONCLUSION: The switch in the late 1980s from the global convergence of life expectancy at birth to divergence indicates that progress in reducing mortality differences between many populations is now more than offset by the scale of reversals in adult mortality in others. Global progress needs to be judged on whether mortality convergence can be re-established and indeed accelerated.

Global Health↗

PubMed2004

Mortality trends and setbacks: global convergence or divergence?

Health trends over much of the past century have been generally, and notably, positive throughout the world. In several regions, however, life expectancy has declined over the past 1-2 decades. This trend suggests that the expectation that emerged in the 1960s and 1970s of worldwide gains and convergence in population health status is not guaranteed by a general deterministic process. National populations can now be clearly grouped into those that have achieved rapid gains in life expectancy; those whose gains are slower or are perhaps plateauing; and those in which the trends have reversed. Over the past two centuries, outside times of war and famine, such reversals have been rare. Exploration of these varied population health trends elucidates better the close relation between population health and the processes of economic, social, and technological change. Such analysis has shown that the health status of human populations should be a guiding criterion in the debate on sustainable development.

Age Factors↗

PubMed2002

The contribution of medical care to changing life expectancy in Germany and Poland.

This paper assesses the impact of medical care on changes in mortality in east Germany and Poland before and after the political transition, with west Germany included for comparison. Building upon Rutstein's concept of unnecessary untimely deaths, we calculated the contribution of conditions considered responsive to medical care or health policy to changes in life expectancy between birth and age 75 [e(0-75)] for the periods 1980/1983-1988 and 1991/1992-1996/1997. Temporary life expectancy, between birth and age 75, has been consistently higher in west Germany, intermediate in east Germany and lowest in Poland. Although improving in all three regions between the early 1980s and the late 1990s, the pace of change differed between countries, resulting in a temporary widening of an initial east-west gap by the late 1980s and early 1990s. In the 1980s, in east Germany, 50-60% of the improvement was attributable to declining mortality from conditions responsive to medical care (west Germany: 30-40%). A net positive effect was also observed in Poland, although counterbalanced by deterioration in ischaemic heart disease mortality.In the former communist countries, improvements attributable to medical care in the 1980s were due, largely, to declining infant mortality. In the 1990s, they benefited also adults, specifically those aged 35+ in Poland and 55+ in Germany. A persisting east-west gap in temporary life expectancy in Germany was due, largely, to higher mortality from avoidable conditions in the east, with causes responsive to health policy contributing about half, and medical care 16% (men) to 24% (women) to the differential in 1997. The findings indicate that changes in the health care system related to the political transition were associated with improvements in life expectancy in east Germany and, to a lesser extent, in Poland. Also, differences in the quality of medical care as assessed by the concept of "unnecessary untimely deaths" appear to contribute to a persisting east-west health gap. Especially in Poland and the former German Democratic Republic there remains potential for further progress that would narrow the health gap with the west.

Adolescent↗