Biomedical subjects

W Falck

Publications and source records attributed to W Falck.

6 recordsLinked to original sources

PubMed1998

From patterns to processes: phase and density dependencies in the Canadian lynx cycle.

Across the boreal forest of North America, lynx populations undergo 10-year cycles. Analysis of 21 time series from 1821 to the present demonstrates that these fluctuations are generated by nonlinear processes with regulatory delays. Trophic interactions between lynx and hares cause delayed density-dependent regulation of lynx population growth. The nonlinearity, in contrast, appears to arise from phase dependencies in hunting success by lynx through the cycle. Using a combined approach of empirical, statistical, and mathematical modeling, we highlight how shifts in trophic interactions between the lynx and the hare generate the nonlinear process primarily by shifting functional response curves during the increase and the decrease phases.

Animals↗

PubMed1997

Population regulation in snowshoe hare and Canadian lynx: asymmetric food web configurations between hare and lynx.

The snowshoe hare and the Canadian lynx in the boreal forests of North America show 9- to 11-year density cycles. These are generally assumed to be linked to each other because lynx are specialist predators on hares. Based on time series data for hare and lynx, we show that the dominant dimensional structure of the hare series appears to be three whereas that of the lynx is two. The three-dimensional structure of the hare time series is hypothesized to be due to a three-trophic level model in which the hare may be seen as simultaneously regulated from below and above. The plant species in the hare diet appear compensatory to one another, and the predator species may, likewise, be seen as an internally compensatory guild. The lynx time series are, in contrast, consistent with a model of donor control in which their populations are regulated from below by prey availability. Thus our analysis suggests that the classic view of a symmetric hare-lynx interaction is too simplistic. Specifically, we argue that the classic food chain structure is inappropriate: the hare is influenced by many predators other than the lynx, and the lynx is primarily influenced by the snowshoe hare.

Animal Feed↗

PubMed1996

Is spacing behaviour coupled with predation causing the microtine density cycle? A synthesis of current process-oriented and pattern-oriented studies.

Current ecological information on periodically fluctuating microtine populations are demonstrated to support a hypothesis involving both predation and intrinsic self-regulation as necessary and sufficient factors for explaining the "microtine density cycle'. The structure of the cyclic time series is largely two dimensional with strong delayed density dependence. Together with recent field studies on rodent demography, our modelling suggests that trophic interaction is a likely candidate to generate the dimensionality observed for northern microtine rodent dynamics. It is shown that the trophic interaction must be fairly strong. This suggests that specialist predation is the most likely one among the classes of trophic interactions. We also argue that some - but not too strong - self-regulation must occur to generate the structure of the available time series on northern European microtines.

Animals↗

PubMed1995

A geographic gradient in small rodent density fluctuations: a statistical modelling approach.

The patterns of density dependence in Fennoscandian rodents are investigated statistically using a linear autoregressive scheme. Nineteen time series of microtine abundances along a latitudinal gradient in Fennoscandia from 60 degrees N to 69 degrees N are analysed. We provide statistical evidence that there exists a latitudinal gradient in density dependence in Fennoscandian microtines. Southern populations experience significantly stronger direct density dependence than northern populations. Delayed density dependence was significantly negative throughout the region and appeared constant across the latitudinal gradient. The populations consistently exhibit dynamics of second order throughout the region. Together, the clinal direct density dependence and constant delayed density dependence give rise to a cline in cycle period from 3 to 4.5 years. The statistical results are compared to assumptions and predictions made in previous studies on the geographic gradient in the population dynamics of these rodents. The results are in agreement with the predictions of the 'generalist predator hypothesis'.

Animals↗

PubMed1995

Bootstrap estimated uncertainty of the dominant Lyapunov exponent for Holarctic microtine rodents.

The dominant Lyapunov exponent, as estimated from time series using the Jacobian-based method, is often used for indicating whether the underlying dynamic system is chaotic or not. The Jacobian-based method together with Response Surface Methodology has been suggested as a method for detecting chaotic dynamics in ecological time series. Besides pointing out that this may not be an appropriate method, we report on estimates of the uncertainty in the estimates of the dominant Lyapunov exponent. For this purpose, we have used time series data on Holarctic microtines. On the basis of our analyses, we are unable to find general evidence for chaotic dynamics in northern microtine populations (north of 60 degrees N) as recently suggested in the ecological literature. It seems, however, that the dynamic properties of the northern and southern populations are different. These patterns are supported by testing for nonlinearity.

Animals↗

PubMed1994

The core group revisited: the effect of partner mixing and migration on the spread of gonorrhea, Chlamydia, and HIV.

A set of differential equations are used to model the spread of sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) in a one-sex population that includes a core group of highly sexually active subjects. The effects of partner mixing between groups and migration to and from the core on the equilibrium number of infected are shown for gonorrhea, chlamydia, and HIV. The STDs are described by the transmission probability per sexual contact and the duration of infectiousness. Partner change and intercourse frequencies are estimated from sexual survey data on heterosexual behavior. The core group is small (3% of the total population) with a partner change frequency 15 times and an intercourse frequency 2 times that of the remaining population. The degree of partner mixing and migration between the two groups can be varied. The number of sexual contacts in the three types of partnerships (core-core, "mixed," remaining population-remaining population) is also modeled. The mixed partnerships are assumed to be casual and to have a low frequency of intercourse. The model is fairly simple, and the emphasis is on qualitative rather that predictive results. The effects of partner mixing are found to be strikingly different for gonorrhea, chlamydia, and HIV. With increasing partner mixing between groups, gonorrhea shows a small increase and then a decrease in the total number of infected, whereas chlamydial infection shows a strong increase. For HIV infection the effect depends on the transmission probability; when it is 0.001 per sexual contact, the number of infected with HIV is almost unaffected by the partner mixing, and when the transmission probability is 0.002 per sexual contact, there is a strong increase in the number of HIV infected with increasing partner mixing. The effects of migration are also different for each disease. With increasing migration between groups, gonorrhea is almost unaffected in the total number of infected, whereas chlamydial infection shows a strong increase. For HIV the effect again depends on the transmission probability; when it is 0.001 per sexual contact, the number of infected with HIV shows a strong decrease, and when the transmission probability is 0.002 per sexual contact the number of HIV infected reaches its maximum for medium strong migration. A sensitivity analysis shows that for all three diseases the basic reproductive ratios (R0) and the total number of infected are sensitive to duration of infectiousness. In addition, for gonorrhea and chlamydia, RO is sensitive to the partner change rates in the core, whereas for HIV, RO is sensitive to the frequency of intercourse in the core.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 400 WORDS)

Chlamydia Infections↗