Biomedical subjects

W H Schlesinger

Publications and source records attributed to W H Schlesinger.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

PubMed2001

Ecological forecasts: an emerging imperative.

Planning and decision-making can be improved by access to reliable forecasts of ecosystem state, ecosystem services, and natural capital. Availability of new data sets, together with progress in computation and statistics, will increase our ability to forecast ecosystem change. An agenda that would lead toward a capacity to produce, evaluate, and communicate forecasts of critical ecosystem services requires a process that engages scientists and decision-makers. Interdisciplinary linkages are necessary because of the climate and societal controls on ecosystems, the feedbacks involving social change, and the decision-making relevance of forecasts.

Agriculture↗

PubMed2001

Limited carbon storage in soil and litter of experimental forest plots under increased atmospheric CO2.

The current rise in atmospheric CO2 concentration is thought to be mitigated in part by carbon sequestration within forest ecosystems, where carbon can be stored in vegetation or soils. The storage of carbon in soils is determined by the fraction that is sequestered in persistent organic materials, such as humus. In experimental forest plots of loblolly pine (Pinus taeda) exposed to high CO2 concentrations, nearly half of the carbon uptake is allocated to short-lived tissues, largely foliage. These tissues fall to the ground and decompose, normally contributing only a small portion of their carbon content to refractory soil humic materials. Such findings call into question the role of soils as long-term carbon sinks, and show the need for a better understanding of carbon cycling in forest soils. Here we report a significant accumulation of carbon in the litter layer of experimental forest plots after three years of growth at increased CO2 concentrations (565 microl l(-1)). But fast turnover times of organic carbon in the litter layer (of about three years) appear to constrain the potential size of this carbon sink. Given the observation that carbon accumulation in the deeper mineral soil layers was absent, we suggest that significant, long-term net carbon sequestration in forest soils is unlikely.

Atmosphere↗

PubMed2001

Forecasting agriculturally driven global environmental change.

During the next 50 years, which is likely to be the final period of rapid agricultural expansion, demand for food by a wealthier and 50% larger global population will be a major driver of global environmental change. Should past dependences of the global environmental impacts of agriculture on human population and consumption continue, 10(9) hectares of natural ecosystems would be converted to agriculture by 2050. This would be accompanied by 2.4- to 2.7-fold increases in nitrogen- and phosphorus-driven eutrophication of terrestrial, freshwater, and near-shore marine ecosystems, and comparable increases in pesticide use. This eutrophication and habitat destruction would cause unprecedented ecosystem simplification, loss of ecosystem services, and species extinctions. Significant scientific advances and regulatory, technological, and policy changes are needed to control the environmental impacts of agricultural expansion.

Agriculture↗