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Biomedical subjects

W I Card

Publications and source records attributed to W I Card.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

Evidential value of the hospital record in clinical decision making.

A simulated retrospective exercise in the diagnosis and management of 53 readmissions to a gastrointestinal unit was undertaken by two consultants. Diagnosis of the illness at readmission was made on evidence sought from a referee, who also supplied, on request, items of relevant evidence from the past medical record. Patient management was agreed from these sources. For each item of evidence the evidential weight, the irrecoverability, and the expected benefit accruing to the patient of its availability was calculated. It was concluded that the evidence worth recording in the event of subsequent hospital admission could be largely specified for each diagnosis and each operation. It would be brief and could be numerically coded.

Decision Making

'Is it worth it?'.

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Decision Making

Computer interrogation of patients.

A system of routine interrogation of patients using a computer has been developed. It includes a visual display unit with a specially designed response keyboard, and the program has been designed to adapt to the individual patient. The system was evaluated objectively, using the criteria of accuracy in eliciting symptoms, acceptability to the patient, and cost. While doctors will always take the ultimate management decisions, it seems that machines can be programmed to undertake the routine interrogation of patients, elicit evidence accurately and acceptably, and calculate the probabilities of disease as effectively as doctors.

Attitude

Development of a formal structure for clinical management decisions: a mathematical analysis.

Decision theory and the calculating power of the computer now enables us to contemplate the development of formal methods for making decisions about clinical management. In the simplest model, it is first necessary to define all treatment decisions as an exhaustive and mutually exclusive set and similarly to define the set of consequences or outcomes of treatment. The probability of each outcome conditional on treatment has to be estimated and this consequent state of health has to be quantified as a utility. Possible methods of estimating utilities of states of health are discussed and the construction of a unidimensional utility function based on a sequence of wagers. The states of health consequent on severe brain damage can only be described multidimensionally and the model has to be extended to include this case. While such a model would allow simple treatment decisions to be formalized, it could not decide whether the cost of treatment was worth while nor whether it would pay to carry out further investigative tests and thus buy more evidence. If these additional variables are to be included in the model, it is necessary to introduce the motion of an equivalence between monetary values and utilities. This implies attaching a monetary value to any given state of health.

Computers

Arthropathy, ankylosing spondylitis, and clubbing of fingers in ulcerative colitis.

In a retrospective study of 399 patients with ulcerative colitis, 27 patients had colitic arthritis, 17 had ankylosing spondylitis, and 20 had clubbing of the fingers. Colitic arthritis and ankylosing spondylitis were not related to severity, extent of involvement, or duration of colitis. A significant association between colitic arthropathy and other complications of ulcerative colitis, such as pseudopolyposis, perianal disease, eye lesions, skin eruptions, aphthous ulceration, and liver disease has been demonstrated. The outcome of the first referred attack of colitis in the presence of colitic arthritis and ankylosing spondylitis remained uninfluenced. Clubbing of fingers was related to severity, extent of involvement, and length of the history of colitis. A significant association between clubbing of the fingers and carcinoma of the colon, pseudopolyposis, toxic dilatation, and arthropathy has been shown. The frequency of surgical intervention in patients with clubbing was higher but the overall mortality was not significantly different from the patients without clubbing.

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