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Weng-Keen Wong

Publications and source records attributed to Weng-Keen Wong.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

Issues in applied statistics for public health bioterrorism surveillance using multiple data streams: research needs.

The objective of this report is to provide a basis to inform decisions about priorities for developing statistical research initiatives in the field of public health surveillance for emerging threats. Rapid information system advances have created a vast opportunity of secondary data sources for information to enhance the situational and health status awareness of populations. While the field of medical informatics and initiatives to standardize healthcare-seeking encounter records continue accelerating, it is necessary to adapt analytic and statistical methodologies to mature in sync with sibling information science technologies. One major right-of-passage for statistical inference is to advance the optimal application of analytic methodologies for using multiple data streams in detecting and characterizing public health population events of importance. This report first describes the problem in general and the data context, then delineates more specifically the practical nature of the problem and the related issues. Approaches currently applied to data with time-series, statistical process control and traditional inference concepts are described with examples in the section on Statistics and the Role of the Analytic Surveillance Data Monitor. These are the techniques that are providing substance to surveillance professionals and enabling use of multiple data streams. The next section describes use of a more complex approach that takes temporal as well as spatial dimensions into consideration for detection and situational awareness regarding event distributions. The space-time statistic has successfully been used to detect and track public health events of interest. Important research questions which are summarized at the end of this report are described in more detail with respect to the methodological application in the respective sections. This was thought to help elucidate the research requirements as summarized later in the report. Following the description of the space-time scan statistical application; this report extends to a less traditional area of promise given what has been observed in recent application of analytic methods. Bayesian networks (BNs) represent a conceptual step with advantages of flexibility for the public health surveillance community. Progression from traditional to the more extending statistical concepts in the context of the dynamic status quo of responsibility and challenge, leads to a conclusion consisting of categorical research needs. The report is structured by design to inform judgment about how to build on practical systems to achieve better analytic outcomes for public health surveillance. There are references to research issues throughout the sections with a summarization at the end, which also includes items previously unmentioned in the report.

Algorithms↗

Use of multiple data streams to conduct Bayesian biologic surveillance.

INTRODUCTION: Emergency department (ED) records and over-the-counter (OTC) sales data are two of the most commonly used sources of data for syndromic surveillance. The majority of detection algorithms monitor these data sources separately and either do not combine them or combine them in an ad hoc fashion. This report outlines a new causal model that combines the two data sources coherently to perform outbreak detection. OBJECTIVES: This report describes the extension of the Population-wide Anomaly Detection and Assessment (PANDA) Bayesian biologic surveillance algorithm to combine information from multiple data streams. It also outlines the assumptions and techniques used to make this approach scalable for real-time surveillance of a large population. METHODS: A causal Bayesian network model used previously was extended to incorporate evidence from daily OTC sales data. At the level of individual persons, the actions that result in the purchase of OTC products and in admission to an ED were modeled. RESULTS: Preliminary results indicate that this model has a tractable running time consisting of 209 seconds for initialization and approximately 4 seconds for every hour's worth of ED data, as measured on a Pentium-4 three-Gigahertz machine with two Gigabytes of RAM. CONCLUSION: Preliminary results for surveillance using a new Bayesian algorithm that models the interaction between ED and OTC data are positive regarding the run time of the algorithm.

Algorithms↗

WSARE: What's Strange About Recent Events?

This article presents an algorithm for performing early detection of disease outbreaks by searching a database of emergency department cases for anomalous patterns. Traditional techniques for anomaly detection are unsatisfactory for this problem because they identify individual data points that are rare due to particular combinations of features. Thus, these traditional algorithms discover isolated outliers of particularly strange events, such as someone accidentally shooting their ear, that are not indicative of a new outbreak. Instead, we would like to detect groups with specific characteristics that have a recent pattern of illness that is anomalous relative to historical patterns. We propose using an anomaly detection algorithm that would characterize each anomalous pattern with a rule. The significance of each rule would be carefully evaluated using the Fisher exact test and a randomization test. In this study, we compared our algorithm with a standard detection algorithm by measuring the number of false positives and the timeliness of detection. Simulated data, produced by a simulator that creates the effects of an epidemic on a city, were used for evaluation. The results indicate that our algorithm has significantly better detection times for common significance thresholds while having a slightly higher false positive rate.

Algorithms↗