Biomedical subjects

William A Link

Publications and source records attributed to William A Link.

7 recordsLinked to original sources

PubMed2006

Toxicity and hazard of vanadium to mallard ducks (Anas platyrhynchos) and Canada geese (Branta canadensis).

A recent Canada goose (Branta canadensis) die-off at a petroleum refinery fly ash pond in Delaware was attributed to vanadium (V) toxicity. Because of the paucity of V toxicity data for wild birds, a series of studies was undertaken using the forms of V believed to have resulted in this incident. In 7-d single oral dose trials with mallard drakes (Anas platyrhynchos), the estimated median lethal dose (LD50) for vanadium pentoxide was 113 mg/kg body weight, while the LD50 for sodium metavanadate was 75.5 mg/kg. Sodium metavanadate was found to be even more potent (LD50 = 37.2 mg/kg) in male Canada geese. The most distinctive histopathological lesion of both forms of V was lympho-granulocytic enteritis with hemorrhage into the intestinal lumen. Vanadium accumulation in liver and kidney was proportional to the administered dose, and predictive analyses based on these data suggest that V concentrations of 10 microg/g dry weight (dw) in liver and 25 microg/g dw in kidney are associated with mortality (>90% confidence that exposure is >LD50) in mallards acutely exposed to sodium metavanadate. Chronic exposure to increasing dietary concentrations of sodium metavanadate (38.5 to 2651 ppm) over 67 d resulted in V accumulation in liver and kidney (25.2 and 13.6 microg/g dw, respectively), mild intestinal hemorrhage, blood chemistry changes, and evidence of hepatic oxidative stress in mallards, although some of these responses may have been confounded by food avoidance and weight loss. Dietary exposure of mallards to 250 ppm sodium metavanadate for 4 wk resulted in modest accumulation of V in liver and kidney (<5 microg/g dw) and mild intestinal hemorrhage. Based on these data and other observations, it is unlikely that chronic low-level dietary exposure to V poses a direct lethal hazard to wildlife. However, point sources, such as the V-laden fly ash pond encountered by geese at the petroleum refinery in Delaware, may pose a significant hazard to water birds.

Animals↗

PubMed2006

Model weights and the foundations of multimodel inference.

Statistical thinking in wildlife biology and ecology has been profoundly influenced by the introduction of AIC (Akaike's information criterion) as a tool for model selection and as a basis for model averaging. In this paper, we advocate the Bayesian paradigm as a broader framework for multimodel inference, one in which model averaging and model selection are naturally linked, and in which the performance of AIC-based tools is naturally evaluated. Prior model weights implicitly associated with the use of AIC are seen to highly favor complex models: in some cases, all but the most highly parameterized models in the model set are virtually ignored a priori. We suggest the usefulness of the weighted BIC (Bayesian information criterion) as a computationally simple alternative to AIC, based on explicit selection of prior model probabilities rather than acceptance of default priors associated with AIC. We note, however, that both procedures are only approximate to the use of exact Bayes factors. We discuss and illustrate technical difficulties associated with Bayes factors, and suggest approaches to avoiding these difficulties in the context of model selection for a logistic regression. Our example highlights the predisposition of AIC weighting to favor complex models and suggests a need for caution in using the BIC for computing approximate posterior model weights.

Animals↗

PubMed2006

Generalized site occupancy models allowing for false positive and false negative errors.

Site occupancy models have been developed that allow for imperfect species detection or "false negative" observations. Such models have become widely adopted in surveys of many taxa. The most fundamental assumption underlying these models is that "false positive" errors are not possible. That is, one cannot detect a species where it does not occur. However, such errors are possible in many sampling situations for a number of reasons, and even low false positive error rates can induce extreme bias in estimates of site occupancy when they are not accounted for. In this paper, we develop a model for site occupancy that allows for both false negative and false positive error rates. This model can be represented as a two-component finite mixture model and can be easily fitted using freely available software. We provide an analysis of avian survey data using the proposed model and present results of a brief simulation study evaluating the performance of the maximum-likelihood estimator and the naive estimator in the presence of false positive errors.

Animals↗

PubMed2005

Modeling association among demographic parameters in analysis of open population capture-recapture data.

We present a hierarchical extension of the Cormack-Jolly-Seber (CJS) model for open population capture-recapture data. In addition to recaptures of marked animals, we model first captures of animals and losses on capture. The parameter set includes capture probabilities, survival rates, and birth rates. The survival rates and birth rates are treated as a random sample from a bivariate distribution, thus the model explicitly incorporates correlation in these demographic rates. A key feature of the model is that the likelihood function, which includes a CJS model factor, is expressed entirely in terms of identifiable parameters; losses on capture can be factored out of the model. Since the computational complexity of classical likelihood methods is prohibitive, we use Markov chain Monte Carlo in a Bayesian analysis. We describe an efficient candidate-generation scheme for Metropolis-Hastings sampling of CJS models and extensions. The procedure is illustrated using mark-recapture data for the moth Gonodontis bidentata.

Animals↗

PubMed2004

Tigers and their prey: Predicting carnivore densities from prey abundance.

The goal of ecology is to understand interactions that determine the distribution and abundance of organisms. In principle, ecologists should be able to identify a small number of limiting resources for a species of interest, estimate densities of these resources at different locations across the landscape, and then use these estimates to predict the density of the focal species at these locations. In practice, however, development of functional relationships between abundances of species and their resources has proven extremely difficult, and examples of such predictive ability are very rare. Ecological studies of prey requirements of tigers Panthera tigris led us to develop a simple mechanistic model for predicting tiger density as a function of prey density. We tested our model using data from a landscape-scale long-term (1995-2003) field study that estimated tiger and prey densities in 11 ecologically diverse sites across India. We used field techniques and analytical methods that specifically addressed sampling and detectability, two issues that frequently present problems in macroecological studies of animal populations. Estimated densities of ungulate prey ranged between 5.3 and 63.8 animals per km2. Estimated tiger densities (3.2-16.8 tigers per 100 km2) were reasonably consistent with model predictions. The results provide evidence of a functional relationship between abundances of large carnivores and their prey under a wide range of ecological conditions. In addition to generating important insights into carnivore ecology and conservation, the study provides a potentially useful model for the rigorous conduct of macroecological science.

Animals↗

PubMed2003

Demographic analysis from summaries of an age-structured population.

Demographic analyses of age-structured populations typically rely on life history data for individuals, or when individual animals are not identified, on information about the numbers of individuals in each age class through time. While it is usually difficult to determine the age class of a randomly encountered individual, it is often the case that the individual can be readily and reliably assigned to one of a set of age classes. For example, it is often possible to distinguish first-year from older birds. In such cases, the population age structure can be regarded as a latent variable governed by a process prior, and the data as summaries of this latent structure. In this article, we consider the problem of uncovering the latent structure and estimating process parameters from summaries of age class information. We present a demographic analysis for the critically endangered migratory population of whooping cranes (Grus americana), based only on counts of first-year birds and of older birds. We estimate age and year-specific survival rates. We address the controversial issue of whether management action on the breeding grounds has influenced recruitment, relating recruitment rates to the number of seventh-year and older birds, and examining the pattern of variation through time in this rate.

Aging↗

PubMed2003

Nonidentifiability of population size from capture-recapture data with heterogeneous detection probabilities.

Heterogeneity in detection probabilities has long been recognized as problematic in mark-recapture studies, and numerous models developed to accommodate its effects. Individual heterogeneity is especially problematic, in that reasonable alternative models may predict essentially identical observations from populations of substantially different sizes. Thus even with very large samples, the analyst will not be able to distinguish among reasonable models of heterogeneity, even though these yield quite distinct inferences about population size. The problem is illustrated with models for closed and open populations.

Animals↗