Medicine's next decade.

Abstract

One often hears that the future of medicine is uncertain. Not true, according to Denver consultant Tom Zirkle, whose firm monitors and analyzes trends in medical care delivery. "The future of medicine-group practice in particular-is quite certain," says Zirkle. "Physician incomes will not keep pace with inflation; competition among doctors, delivery systems and with allied health personnel will become far more intense; increasing fees to cover higher overhead costs will not be possible; taxes will continue to rise; and, government regulation is likely to expand into the ambulatory care sector. "These certainties are based not only on intuitive judgments but also on hard facts; things are going to get rough. Unless group practices begin to adopt an operational philosophy oriented toward preservation of their institutional well-being, they simply won't survive."