Formulating disaster relief when needs are unknown.

Abstract

As in most cases of natural disasters, relief needs arising out of the Mount St. Helens volcanic eruptions in May 1980 were greatly overestimated. Technical, bureaucratic, and political considerations all contribute to the upward bias in such cases. The errors in early estimates of relief needs can be reduced by systematic means. But more important than obtaining good early estimates is maintaining an effective control over actual disaster relief expenditures. As it turns out, the more effective systems of control usually go hand in hand with poorer early estimates, creating a dilemma for the management for disaster relief.