Methodologic issues in epidemiologic risk assessment.

Abstract

This paper reviews methodologic issues pertinent to the application of epidemiology in risk assessment and discusses concerns in the presentation of results from such an activity. Assessment of the health risks associated with occupational and environmental exposures involves four phases: hazard identification, i.e., the detection of the potential for agents to cause adverse health effects in exposed populations; exposure assessment, i.e., the quantification of exposures and the estimation of the characteristics and sizes of the exposed populations; dose-response assessment, i.e., the modeling for risk realization; and risk characterization, i.e., the evaluation of the impact of a change in exposure levels on public health effects. The risk-assessment process involves limitations of exposure data, many assumptions, and subjective choices that need to be considered when using this approach to provide guidance for health policy or action. In view of these uncertainties, we suggest that the provision of estimates of individual risk and disease burden in a population must be accompanied by the corresponding estimates of precision; risks should be presented in a sufficiently disaggregated form so that population heterogeneities are not lost in the data aggregation; and different scenarios and risk models should be applied. The methods are illustrated by an assessment on the health impacts of exposure to silica.