PubMed Health⌕ Search
Home/Archive/PubMed

PubMed · 10815501

[Scenario analysis--a method for long-term planning].

K Stavem
View original source ↗Export metadata ↓

Abstract

Scenarios are known from the film industry, as detailed descriptions of films. This has given name to scenario analysis, a method for long term planning using descriptions of composite future pictures. This article is an introduction to the scenario method. Scenarios describe plausible, not necessarily probable, developments. They focus on problems and questions that decision makers must be aware of and prepare to deal with, and the consequences of alternative decisions. Scenarios are used in corporate and governmental planning, and they can be useful and complementary to traditional planning and extrapolation of past experience. The method is particularly useful in a rapidly changing world with shifting external conditions.

Explore related subjects

Decision Making, OrganizationalDecision Support TechniquesHealth PlanningHealth PolicyPlanning TechniquesEnglish AbstractJournal ArticleReview

Keep this discovery

Explore connections, maps & timelines

BibTeXRIS

K Stavem. 2000-01-10. [Scenario analysis--a method for long-term planning].. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/10815501/

Cite the original work for its findings. Save a collection to share your selection of sources.

KEEP EXPLORING

Related citations

PubMed2000

[13 years old scenarios for this year].

This article examines two scenarios, published in 1987, for the future development of Norwegian health care towards the year 2000. The scenarios emphasize different external forces and priorities. The 1987 scenarios are then assessed in the light of actual developments during the period. Scenario I describes a picture characterised by reduced economic growth 1987-2000 compared to previous decades, resulting in a year 2000 health care system with limited resources and hard priorities, focus on cost containment, increased efficiency, and search for alternative solutions. In Scenario II, the year 2000 health care system had more resources; however, the demand for services was as high or higher than in the 1980s. Instead of improvements in efficiency, alternative modes of financing health care and social security had evolved. Increasing knowledge among consumers, dissatisfaction and new technology had driven up costs, and health care professions tried to take advantage of the situation. This scenario is characterized by people wanting more, and getting more.

Decision Making, Organizational↗
PubMed2000

Shared governance and teamwork--myth or reality.

Taking time to develop key strategies and implement our model enabled team members to deliver excellent patient care through shared governance and team empowerment. The benefits of using this model are medical and nursing staff members working together and having ownership in what they do. A sense of accomplishment will be evident, and team members likely will achieve the team's goals and those of the organization. Nurses frequently practice traditional shared governance. To achieve our goals, however, we must take the opportunity that working with medical team members offers. Ensuring that we remain interested and committed to our team model is the next major challenge the team members face. We must continue to be vibrant and open to change. Educational programs, seminars, journal clubs, social activities, and challenging team members for ideas help maintain interest and focus. As managers, we must allow the team to grow and develop by promoting a climate in which learning and mastery is valued, making it clear that there is no failure, only mistakes that provide feedback. We can facilitate this by trusting, believing in, and supporting team members to provide excellent patient care while achieving their goals and those of the organization.

Decision Making, Organizational↗