An optimum world population.

Abstract

The optimum population of the world is the one that is most likely to make the option of a good quality of life available to everyone everywhere, both now and in the future. Establishing a consensus about the size of such a population would be an important step towards achieving it. Estimates of an optimum involve three main steps. First, estimate the maximum (carrying capacity) assuming a specified lifestyle. The main criteria are the maintenance of biodiversity, the availability of freshwater, and the availability of land--for agriculture, forestry and artificial systems but above all for the conversion of energy. (In applying the criteria, there are always two questions to ask: 'What is the maximum amount of consumption that the biosphere can stand?' and 'What is an adequate share of such consumption per person?') Second, convert the maximum (two to three billion) into an optimum by applying a far wider range of criteria, including personal liberty, mobility, recreation and political representation. Third, consider just two criteria (economies of scale and technological innovation) in order to ensure that the optimum (one to two billion) has not fallen below the minimum (half to one billion). The estimates are so low because of the need for a huge increase in median per capita consumption if everyone is to have the option of an adequate material standard of living. Opinion-formers are likely not to take much notice of such estimates, but it is probable that minds will be concentrated by an energy shock some time during the next decade. Achieving an optimum world population will not solve the world's major problems, but it would make them solvable.