PubMed · 11367042
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G Nary. 1999. Secure the future.. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/11367042/
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BACKGROUND: Estimating the time since HIV infection (TSI) at population level is essential for tracking changes in the global HIV epidemic. Most methods for determining TSI give a binary classification of infections as recent or non-recent within a window of several months, and cannot assess the cumulative impact of an intervention. RESULTS: We developed a Random Forest Regression model, HIV-phyloTSI, which combines measures of within-host diversity and divergence to generate continuous TSI estimates directly from viral deep-sequencing data, with no need for additional variables. HIV-phyloTSI provides a continuous measure of TSI up to 9 years, with a mean absolute error of less than 12 months overall and less than 5 months for infections with a TSI of up to a year. It performs equally well for all major HIV subtypes based on data from African and European cohorts. CONCLUSIONS: We demonstrate how HIV-phyloTSI can be used for incidence estimates on a population level.
OBJECTIVE: To determine the incidence of non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (NHL) and Hodgkin's disease (HD) in the UK haemophilia population during the 22 year period 1978-1999. DESIGN AND METHODS: An analysis of patient data included on the UK Haemophilia Centre Doctors' Organisation lymphoma register. The number of cases of NHL and HD occurring in HIV-positive and negative patients in each 3-year period were compared with the expected incidence in the general male population. RESULTS: Eighty-nine cases of lymphoma were identified. Seventy-two cases (81%) occurred in HIV-positive patients (67 NHL, five HD), and 17 cases (19%) in HIV-negative patients (nine NHL, eight HD). The incidence of NHL in the HIV-positive cohort was significantly increased, with a ratio of observed to expected cases of 83.92 (P < 0.001) in the period 1985-1996. The ratio reduced to 42.15 during the period 1997-1999, presumably as a consequence of the introduction of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART). There was a significant excess of HD in HIV-positive patients, with an observed to expected ratio of 10.50 between 1985 and 1999 (based on five cases, P < 0.001). During the whole observation period, there was a significant excess of HD in HIV-negative patients, with an observed to expected ratio of 2.66 (based on eight cases, P < 0.05). CONCLUSION: The incidence of lymphoma is significantly higher in HIV-positive UK haemophilia patients compared with HIV-negative individuals. Since the introduction of HAART, the incidence of lymphoma has tended to fall in the HIV-positive group.
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