Efficient diagnostic test sequence: applications of the probability-modifying plot.

Abstract

Excessive diagnostic testing rarely leads to complete certainty of the disease status of a patient. Because of constraints of health care budgets, physicians should be aware of the diminishing marginal gain of each subsequent test in a testing strategy related to costs. We developed the probability-modifying plot to determine economically efficient sequence of testing without losing clinical effectiveness. Two applications of the model are presented: diagnosis of Helicobacter pylori and diagnosis of benign prostatic hyperplasia. The probability-modifying plots are drawn to visualize and calculate the economic efficiency of all possible test sequences, meaning that although the different test sequences are equally accurate, some have even lower costs than others.