Stochastic population forecasts and their uses.

S Tuljapurkar

doi:10.1016/0169-2070(92)90054-d

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Stochastic population forecasts and their uses.

S Tuljapurkar

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Abstract

"The properties and uses of stochastic forecasts are discussed here. For linear stochastic projections, we show how the computation of forecast moments and the statistical distribution of forecasts depend on the multiplicative and autoregressive structure of the dynamics. Both scalar and vector projection methods are discussed, and their similarities are explored. Next we discuss the uses of stochastic forecasts, arguing that it is important to relate forecasts to the specific decision-making criteria of particular forecast users. The example of [the U.S. system of] Social Security is used to show how a dynamic programming approach may be used to explore alternative decisions in a probabilistic context."

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Americas Developed Countries Forecasting Models, Theoretical North America Research Statistics as Topic United States Estimation Technics Mathematical Model Northern America Population Forecast Population Projection Research Methodology Journal Article

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S Tuljapurkar. 1992. Stochastic population forecasts and their uses.. https://doi.org/10.1016/0169-2070(92)90054-d

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