PubMed · 13426632
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1957-06-08. COHORT analysis.. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/13426632/
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OBJECTIVE: To examine the efficacy of different methods of detecting a high death rate and determining whether an increase in deaths after heart transplantation could be explained by chance. DESIGN: Retrospective analysis of deaths after heart transplantation. Seven methods were used: mortality above national average, mortality excessively above national average, test of moving average mortality, test of number of consecutive deaths, sequential probability ratio test (SPRT), cusum graph with v-mask, and CRAM chart. The national average mortality was not available and a rate of 15% was used instead as the benchmark. SETTING: Regional cardiothoracic unit. PARTICIPANTS: All 371 patients who received a heart transplant in the programme, 1986-2000. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: 30 day survival after transplantation. RESULTS: All methods provided evidence that the 30 day mortality had been high at some stage. The probability that the finding was a false positive depended on which test was used. At the end of the series the average mortality, sequential probability ratio, and cusum tests indicated a level of deaths higher than the benchmark while the remaining four tests yielded negative results. CONCLUSIONS: If the decision to test for outlying mortality is made retrospectively, in the light of the data, it is not possible to determine the false positive rate. Prospective on-site mortality monitoring with the CRAM chart is recommended as this method can quantify the death rate and identify periods when an audit of cases is indicated, even when data from other institutions are not available. A hospital mortality monitoring group can routinely monitor all deaths in the hospital, by specialty, using hospital episode statistics (HES) data and appropriate statistical methods.
BACKGROUND: Mannose-binding lectin (MBL) is a circulating immune factor responsible for opsonization of pathogens and directly activating complement. Common variations in the MBL gene are responsible for an opsonic deficiency that affects 5% to 7% of whites and are associated with increased susceptibility to infections. After a preliminary report associating these variations with coronary artery disease (CAD), we determined MBL genotypes in 3 American Indian communities experiencing an increased mortality and morbidity from CAD. METHODS AND RESULTS: We examined DNA from 434 participants in a population-based cohort, the Strong Heart Study. Genotypes for 3 common MBL coding variations and 1 promoter polymorphism were determined. The frequency of a composite genotype that conferred low MBL levels was 20.7% in 217 cases and 11.1% in matched controls without CAD. A conditional logistic regression model indicated a univariate OR for CAD of 2.3 (95% CI 1.3 to 4.2, P=0.005) for the variant genotypes. After adjustment for demographic and CAD risk factors, including type 2 diabetes mellitus, fibrinogen, triglycerides, and hypertension, the OR was 3.2 (95% CI 1.5 to 7.0, P=0.004). CONCLUSIONS: Variant MBL genotypes coding for markedly diminished levels of MBL are predictive of CAD. After adjustment for multiple traditional risk factors for ischemic heart disease, this association remains significant. A high prevalence of variant MBL alleles and CAD in this population suggests that potentially important public health benefits may accrue from future interventions based on these genotypes.
GB virus type C (GBV-C) infection was studied in a convenience sample of 75 antiretroviral (ART)-naive African mothers with human immunodeficiency virus infection and their infants. GBV-C RNA was extracted from serum and amplified by reverse-transcriptase polymerase chain reaction. Twenty-seven (36%) of these 75 HIV-infected women tested positive for GBV-C RNA. To study transmission dynamics, we chose a random subsample of 20 of these women and their infants. In this cohort, there was evidence of postnatal transmission of GBV-C; however, it was not possible to demonstrate evidence of in utero or intrapartum transmission. In this pilot observational study, transmission of HIV from mother-to-infant occurs independently of the GBV-C infection status of the mother. The immunological indices measured tend to suggest an association with protection and or delayed progression of HIV disease in GBV-C-infected mothers.