PubMed · 14223732
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J TKACIK. 1964-11-21. TETANUS PROPHYLAXIS.. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/14223732/
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Recent studies in Hong Kong and Singapore suggest that the annual impact of influenza in these wealthy tropical cities may be substantial, but little is known about the burden in middle-income tropical countries. We reviewed the status of influenza surveillance, vaccination, research, and policy in Thailand as of January 2004. From 1993 to 2002, 64-91 cases of clinically diagnosed influenza were reported per 100,000 persons per year. Influenza viruses were isolated in 34% of 4305 specimens submitted to the national influenza laboratory. Vaccine distribution figures suggest that less than 1% of the population is immunized against influenza each year. In January 2004, Thailand reported its first documented outbreak of influenza A H5N1 infection in poultry and the country's first human cases of avian influenza. Thailand's growing economy, well-developed public health infrastructure, and effective national immunization program could enable the country to take more active steps towards influenza control.
The global epidemic of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) in 2003 demonstrated the need to determine control strategies for exotic infections. The prior determination of such strategies, and the use of mathematical models to assist this, is hampered by the obvious lack of data. We propose an integral equation model of Kermack-McKendrick type that may be used to compare strategies based on the isolation of infectious individuals. The model structures the incidence of infection according to the location of an infected individual at exposure, and requires knowledge of the infectivity kernel and the initial rate of exponential increase of cases. The model's use in the design of strategies to minimize the risk of SARS in a previously unexposed community is demonstrated.