Test for a population expansion after a drastic reduction in population size using DNA sequence data.

Abstract

Populations may, during their evolutionary history, go through drastic changes in population size due to bottlenecks or founder events upon colonization of new areas. This involves a subsample of haplotypes, causing the allele frequencies to be different from the original population. In addition, the period of recovery after a bottleneck can be of considerable length. If reproduction is unequal among individuals but random with regard to haplotype, large deviations from the patterns expected in a stable population may result. By means of computer simulation, I have analysed the patterns arising when populations undergo bottlenecks and then slowly recover, and used two new statistical tests for the detection of the bottleneck. A test based on the variance of the relative frequency of haplotypes had generally high power even at low sample size (n=25). This statistic was most powerful after very strong bottlenecks and lost power with increasing propagule size. A test based on the variance of the pairwise differences shows slightly less power. As expected, power was reduced when migration into the founder population was allowed from the source population. This suggests that the test is particularly suited for detecting relatively recent and strong bottlenecks, and thus may be a valuable tool for identifying population events on a fine temporal scale, such as colonisations after the last glaciation.