Searching for patterns in random sequences.

Abstract

In a probability-guessing paradigm, participants predict which of two events will occur on each trial. Participants generally frequency match even though frequency matching is nonoptimal with random sequences. The optimal strategy is to guess the most frequent event, maximizing. We hypothesize that frequency matching results from a search for patterns, even in random sequences. Using both callisotomy patients and patients with frontal brain damage, Wolford, Miller, and Gazzaniaga (2000) found frequency matching in the left hemisphere but maximizing in the right hemisphere. In this paper, we show that a secondary task that competes for left hemisphere resources moves the participants toward maximizing but that a right-hemisphere task preserves frequency matching. We also show that a misunderstanding of randomness contributes to frequency matching.