Optimal intervention for an epidemic model under parameter uncertainty.

Damian Clancy; Nathan Green

doi:10.1016/j.mbs.2006.08.023

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Optimal intervention for an epidemic model under parameter uncertainty.

Damian Clancy·Nathan Green

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Abstract

We will be concerned with optimal intervention policies for a continuous-time stochastic SIR (susceptible-->infective-->removed) model for the spread of infection through a closed population. In previous work on such optimal policies, it is common to assume that model parameter values are known; in reality, uncertainty over parameter values exists. We shall consider the effect upon the optimal policy of changes in parameter estimates, and of explicitly taking into account parameter uncertainty via a Bayesian decision-theoretic framework. We consider policies allowing for (i) the isolation of any number of infectives, or (ii) the immunisation of all susceptibles (total immunisation). Numerical examples are given to illustrate our results.

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Algorithms Bayes Theorem Communicable Disease Control Communicable Diseases Disease Outbreaks Humans Markov Chains Mass Vaccination Models, Biological Patient Isolation Stochastic Processes Journal Article Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

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Damian Clancy, Nathan Green. 2006-09-07. Optimal intervention for an epidemic model under parameter uncertainty.. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.mbs.2006.08.023

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