Targeting preventive interventions: enhancing risk estimates through theory.

Abstract

Incorporation of mediational screening procedures within targeted preventive interventions must be grounded in a substantial theoretical and epidemiological knowledge base. Essential information includes an etiological model of the disorder(s) to be prevented and epidemiological confirmation that risk factors used for the selection of intervention recipients have been prospectively confirmed. Targeting these recipients using a combination of indicated and selective criteria is expected to increase the base rate at which the disorder(s) to be prevented occurs in the intervention population and thus the power of the evaluation design used to confirm reductions in proximal and distal indices of disorder(s). Caution is urged, however, to consider the potential iatrogenic effects of overly focused targeting and the potential reductions in intervention effectiveness resulting from application to homogeneous vs. heterogeneous populations. Mediational screening's heuristic contribution to theory is discussed.