PubMed · 3173799
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1988. AIDS malpractice verdict.. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/3173799/
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Although individuals infected with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) seem to be more infectious in the late stages of HIV infection and possibly also during the seroconversion period, most estimates of per-sexual-contact infectivity have been obtained without allowing for variability over the course of infection. In this analysis, a probabilistic model was fitted to data from a European study carried out between 1987 and 1992 that involved 499 (359 males and 140 females) HIV-infected subjects (index cases) and their regular heterosexual partners. The model used allowed infectivity (the per-sexual-contact HIV transmission probability, mu) to vary through three stages: the first 3 months following infection, the subsequent asymptomatic period, and the advanced stage (HIV-related clinical symptoms or a CD4-positive T lymphocyte count less than 200/mm3). Male-to-female infectivity through penile-anal sex was found to be higher in both the early and advanced stages of infection (mu=0.183) than in the longer intermediate period (mu=0.014) (p < 0.03). Failure to demonstrate significant differences between stages for other types of contact (male-to-female penile-vaginal contacts: mu=0.0007; female-to-male transmission: mu=0.0005) may reflect insufficient power rather than a true lack of variability. Indeed, the results for penile-anal sex suggest that persons who are in the process of seroconverting may be much more infectious than asymptomatic infected persons, whatever the type of contact. Prevention education should stress the risk of HIV transmission from subjects who may be unaware of their infection.
We estimated the annual hazard rate for progression to AIDS as defined by the 1987 case definition in HIV-infected members of a cohort of Danish and American homosexual-bisexual men who were observed from 1981 to 1995. Furthermore, we extrapolated the hazard to 25 years based on imputed future time to AIDS. Of 201 HIV-positive subjects, 112 developed AIDS before the end of follow-up. The hazard increased rapidly during the first years following infection, attained a peak of about 15% per year at year 7, and was moderately lower during years 8 through 10. In subsequent analysis, we imputed future time to AIDS in 89 subjects who had not progressed by the end of follow-up by extrapolation from subject-specific CD4 trend lines. A CD4 count of < or = 100 cells/microl was the best surrogate for clinical AIDS. Under this model, the imputed AIDS hazard stabilized at around 8% per year after 10 years. We projected that 13% (95% confidence interval [CI], 8%-19%) of the infected men may remain free from AIDS 25 years after seroconversion. Our direct data suggest that incubation times reflect a mixture of a population that is susceptible to disease progression and has short incubation periods with a group that is relatively resistant. Based on an extrapolation model, > 10% of HIV-infected persons may survive for up to 25 years without developing AIDS.
A human herpesvirus-8 (HHV-8) enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) with a whole virus lysate as antigen was developed and used to measure the seroprevalence rate and levels of IgG antibodies to HHV-8 in sera/plasma of various patient groups and blood donors. The virus antigen was prepared from the KS-1 cell line, which produces lytic virus, and therefore contains a broad array of viral proteins. Seroprevalence studies using this ELISA showed the following: 10 of 91 blood donors (11%) had an average HHV-8 antibody titer of 118; 67 of 72 (93%) classic Kaposi's sarcoma (KS) patients were positive with an average titer of 14,111; and 57 of 62 (92%) KS/human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) patients were positive with an average titer of 4,000. A study on a very limited number of serial serum samples from patients before and after diagnosis with KS showed highly elevated antibody titers to HHV-8 virus after KS lesions developed. Preliminary data show that 50% of the sera from HIV-1(+) homosexual patients contain IgG antibodies to HHV-8 suggesting that this population is at high risk for developing KS. Antibody results correlated well with the confirmatory immunofluorescent assays (IFA) using KS-1 cells as the substrate. This HHV-8 IgG antibody detection ELISA is sensitive and specific and does not cross-react with Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) or other human herpesviruses. The results of this HHV-8 antibody survey suggest that this rapid ELISA assay can be used to screen large numbers of sera to find those at risk for developing KS.