Incidence and risk factors for malignancy in patients with incidental solitary pulmonary nodules: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Abstract

BACKGROUND: The increasing use of chest imaging has led to a higher detection rate of incidental solitary pulmonary nodules (SPNs), often causing patient anxiety. Determining the malignancy rate and associated risk factors is crucial for developing appropriate follow-up strategies to prevent overdiagnosis, overtreatment, or missed diagnoses. This meta-analysis aims to investigate the malignancy rate and risk factors in patients with incidental SPNs. METHODS: A systematic search of PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, and the Cochrane Library was conducted up to June 30, 2025. Data on malignancy rates and potential risk factors were extracted from eligible studies. All pooled analyses were performed using a random-effects model. RESULTS: Fifty-four studies involving 19,985 patients were included. The pooled malignancy rate for incidental SPNs was 56.7% (95% CI: 51.5-62.0), with significant between-study heterogeneity (I2 = 98.5%, p&#x2009;<&#x2009;0.001). The pooled effect size showed a minimal change after adjustment for potential publication bias using the non-parametric Trim-and-Fill method (54.7%; 95%CI: 50.9-58.8). Risk factor analysis identified that older age, history of cancer, cigarette smoker, larger nodule diameter, spiculation, upper lobe location, lobulation, pleural indentation, vascular convergence, solid nodules, family history of cancer, and irregular or ill-defined margins were significantly associated with an increased risk of malignancy. Conversely, male sex, presence of calcification, and clear borders were significantly associated with a reduced risk of malignancy. CONCLUSION: This meta-analysis provides a comprehensive assessment of malignancy rates and risk factors in incidental SPNs. The high pooled malignancy rate should be interpreted considering the significant heterogeneity and the inclusion of a high proportion of retrospective studies and populations from high-risk regions. Nonetheless, these findings offer essential evidence for clinical risk stratification, supporting optimized follow-up and informed decision-making.