Dynamic case-control sampling for rapid estimation of vaccine effectiveness against an emerging infectious disease variant.

Abstract

New SARS-CoV-2 variants arise frequently with different viral properties that can impact the effectiveness of the vaccines. Updating estimates of vaccine effectiveness (VE) in public health surveillance can be limited by the necessity of conducting a distinct study that entails analysis of prospective cohort data or using a test-negative design. We introduce a method for dynamically updating estimates of VE using data that accumulate in real time. Our method uses dynamic case-control sampling to estimate VE against a newly emerging variant relative to a previous variant. Dynamic case-control sampling is a technique that continuously updates VE estimates by comparing individuals infected with a newly emerging variant (defined as "cases") to those infected with a previously circulating variant (defined as "controls"). We use this estimate in combination with information about VE from the previous variant (these estimates are typically available from larger, traditional studies) to infer VE against the emerging variant. We demonstrate the utility of this method on the BA.1 and BA.2 sub-lineages of the Omicron variant. The method produces estimates of VE comparable to those produced using traditional methods, although with increased SE. The increase in error, however, is reasonable given a much smaller sample size than other studies, and error ranges of the estimates could be significantly improved by sequencing a larger proportion of identified cases. Our method, which assumes only a fraction of the new cases are being sequenced, can be applied by health departments using routinely collected data to produce timely, rigorous VE estimates to rapidly identify potential changes in VE.