Development and external validation of an explainable machine learning model for predicting chronic kidney disease progression in the Korean population.

Abstract

BACKGROUND: Current risk stratification models, such as the Kidney Failure Risk Equation (KFRE), exhibit variable performance across ethnic groups and fail to capture dynamic clinical trajectories. This study aimed to develop and validate a Korean-specific machine learning (ML) model for predicting chronic kidney disease (CKD) progression using an ensemble approach. METHODS: We used electronic health records from Seoul National University Hospital for model development (n = 28,209) and the Korean Genome and Epidemiology Study (KoGES) CKD cohort for external validation (n = 3,960). The primary outcome was a composite of ≥40% decline in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) or progression to end-stage renal disease within 2 years. A soft-voting ensemble of four ML algorithms (XGBoost, LightGBM, CatBoost, and Random Forest) was developed. RESULTS: The ensemble model demonstrated robust discrimination in internal validation (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUROC], 0.939; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.934-0.944), significantly exceeding the KFRE (AUROC, 0.879-0.884). External validation in the KoGES cohort showed comparable discrimination (AUROC, 0.859; 95% CI, 0.798-0.914) versus KFRE (four-variable AUROC, 0.882; 95% CI, 0.818-0.935). Shapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) analysis identified baseline eGFR, serum creatinine, eGFR slope, albumin, and hemoglobin as key prognostic features, supporting a complementary framework using KFRE for community screening and the ML model for hospital-based risk stratification. CONCLUSION: The ensemble ML model accurately predicts short-term CKD progression in Korean patients. By incorporating longitudinal features and ensemble learning, it provides a precise alternative to Western-derived equations, particularly in tertiary care settings.