Incidence of Cirrhosis in Fibrotic Metabolic Dysfunction-Associated Steatohepatitis: A Meta-Analysis of Placebo Arms from Randomized Clinical Trials.

Abstract

BACKGROUNDS AND AIMS: Metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis (MASH) with stage F2-F3 fibrosis represents the main target population for emerging pharmacotherapies. However, data on short-term progression to cirrhosis (F4) in this group remain limited. We aimed to evaluate the incidence of cirrhosis in placebo-treated patients with fibrotic MASH in randomized controlled trials (RCTs). METHODS: In this single-arm meta-analysis, we systematically searched PubMed and Cochrane Library from inception to December 13, 2024, for pharmacological Phase ≥ 2 RCTs reporting cirrhosis events (detected in liver biopsy or clinical signs) among patients with fibrotic MASH receiving placebo. Incidence rates were pooled using generalized linear mixed models with Clopper-Pearson confidence intervals (CIs). RESULTS: We identified a total of 11 RCTs, including 586 patients with fibrotic MASH. Total follow-up was 657.23 person-years (PYs), with 83 cirrhosis events reported. The pooled incidence rate was 13.09 per 100 PYs (95% CI 7.81 to 21.12, I2 = 75.6%, τ2 = 0.682). In subgroup analysis, the incidence of cirrhosis was 3.40 per 100 PYs in MASH F2 (95% CI 1.10 to 10.02, I2 = 0%, τ2 = 0) and 17.90 per 100 PYs (95% CI 10.63 to 28.55, I2 = 70.2%, τ2 = 0.561) in MASH F3, with significant differences between stages (p = 0.006). Sensitivity analyses showed consistent estimates. Most RCTs were judged to have a low risk of bias. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides stage-specific data on cirrhosis incidence in fibrotic MASH, highlighting the high short-term risk associated with MASH F3 in trial settings. These data may inform benchmarks to guide event expectations, enrichment strategies, sample size assumptions, and the interpretation of future MASH clinical trials.