Urban heat island and risk of rheumatoid arthritis: Insights from genetic predisposition and proteomics.

Abstract

BACKGROUND: Urban heat island (UHI) exposure is an increasingly common consequence of urbanization and climate warming, but its association with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) risk remains unclear. OBJECTIVE: To investigate the association between UHI exposure and incident RA, and to further assess the roles of genetic susceptibility and plasma proteomic profiles in this association. METHODS: This study included 400,628 urban residents with UHI exposure data and free of RA at baseline. Cox proportional hazards models were used to evaluate the association between UHI exposure and incident RA. Polygenic risk scores were used to assess effect modification by genetic susceptibility. Proteomic analyses identified candidate proteins and enriched pathways underlying the association. Mendelian randomization, colocalization, and mediation analyses assessed causal relevance and mediation. RESULTS: Over a median follow-up of 14.05 years, 5397 incident RA cases were documented. Each standard-deviation increase in UHI exposure was associated with a 17% higher risk of RA. This association was more pronounced among older adults and individuals with lower socioeconomic status. An additive interaction was observed between UHI exposure and genetic risk for RA. Proteomic analyses suggested that this association may involve not only canonical immune-inflammatory pathways, but also hypoxia response and protein transport, with CD40, VCAM1, and SUGP1 emerging as potential molecular mediators. CONCLUSIONS: UHI exposure may be a modifiable environmental risk factor for RA and provide new insights into the biological mechanisms underlying this association.