An Exosomal Signature for Preoperative Detection of Occult Liver Metastasis in Pancreatic Cancer.

Abstract

IMPORTANCE: Early liver metastasis (early-LiM) after pancreatectomy represents an aggressive biological phenotype of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) and is associated with markedly poor survival. Reliable preoperative biomarkers to identify occult hepatic micrometastasis remain lacking. OBJECTIVE: To develop and externally validate a circulating exosomal microRNA (exo-miRNA)-based machine learning model for preoperative detection of occult early-LiM in PDAC. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This multicenter retrospective case-control study included 3 phases: genome-wide discovery using exo-miRNA sequencing (discovery cohort), model development (training cohort), and independent external validation (2 validation cohorts). The study took place at 4 medical centers in China, Japan, and South Korea. A total of 372 patients were enrolled between 2011 and 2024. Data were analyzed from July 2024 to November 2025. EXPOSURES: Circulating plasma-derived exosomal miRNA expression profiles. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: The primary outcome was early-LiM, defined as liver recurrence within 6 months after curative-intent resection. Model performance was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and survival outcomes were assessed using Kaplan-Meier analysis. RESULTS: Among 372 patients with PDAC (median [IQR] age, 67 [59-73] years; 229 [61.6%] male and 143 [38.4%] female; median follow-up among survivors, 969 days),early-LiM was associated with significantly worse overall survival compared with other recurrence patterns (median OS, 9.1 months vs 26.6-31.8 months; log-rank P&#x2009;<&#x2009;.001). A 7-exo-miRNA extreme gradient boosting model demonstrated discrimination in the training cohort (AUC, 0.899; 95% CI, 0.822-0.976) and maintained performance in external testing cohorts (AUC, 0.876; 95% CI, 0.846-0.951 and AUC, 0.862; 95% CI, 0.744-0.981). The exo-miRNA panel score remained an independent identifier of early-LiM in multivariable analysis (odds ratio, 26.49; 95% CI, 18.45-55.28; P&#x2009;<&#x2009;.001) and stratified overall survival (log-rank P&#x2009;<&#x2009;.001). Decision curve analysis suggested improved net clinical benefit compared with conventional clinicopathologic variables. CONCLUSION AND RELEVANCE: In this multicenter study, a circulating exo-miRNA-based machine learning model enabled preoperative detection of occult early liver metastasis risk in PDAC. These findings support the potential of exosomal biomarkers to inform biology-guided treatment sequencing and warrant prospective validation.