Lead modelling--a decision-making tool.

Abstract

The difficulties of decision-making in a state of ignorance regarding the problem area, true for many questions of environmental pollution, are discussed with reference to lead. Before irrevocably committing a considerable amount of both capital and material resources, the policy-making wound like to make a prediction as to the potential effectiveness of any control measure. To this end a mathematical model is suggested which represents the transport of lead within a standard man. It may be used at two discrete levels, either to analyse a number of control strategies in terms of their relative effectiveness in reducing blood lead concentrations, or, dependent upon the model's accuracy and the availability of data concerning the exposure to, and metabolism of, lead by a specific population, to select between two, or more, directly competing strategies for the control of that population's lead exposure, the selection of the optimum strategy being based on the model's output. Modelling may be seen, therefore, to satisfy, at least in part, the need for decision-making information in an area where time may not permit the acquisition of appropriate, unequivocable scientific evidence.