Current development in Social Security financing.

Abstract

The current financial outlook for the old-age, survivors, disability, and health insurance (OASDHI) program indicates several problems. During 1980-84, income and outgo for the OASDI and hospital insurance (HI) trust funds combined are roughly in balance, according to the annual report of the Board of Trustees. The OSI program, however, is running out of funds as automatic benefit increases exceed the growth in payroll tax revenues. Clearly, additional financing will be needed throughout the 1980's. Funds now earmarked for the DI and HI trust funds could serve this purpose, although more short-range financing will be needed if real wages continue to show losses instead of the usual gains. The 1977 amendments that strengthened social security financing provided only a thin margin of safety against unfavorable experience during the early 1980's. The short-range economic picture has darkened considerably since 1977, with adverse consequences for social security financing. Only the DI experience has improved. Based on tax rates in the present law, a large buildup of OASDI trust funds is expected over the next 25 years. HI financing, however, is projected to become inadequate after 1990. Projections over the next 75 years indicate severe financing problems for the OASDI program early in the 21st centruy, as the aged population grows relative to the work force.