Simulation of micropopulations in epidemiology: tutorial. 3. Simulation model evaluation methods. A series of tutorials illustrated by coronary heart disease models.

Abstract

This is the third in a series of tutorials concerning the simulation of micropopulation models to support epidemiological research. The series emphasizes techniques used in studies at the National Micropopulation Simulation Resource at the University of Minnesota. For pedagogic purposes, applications to coronary heart disease (CHD) models are used to illustrate the principles and methodologies employed. All of the models presented are implemented using available software. A variety of tests and techniques are used to evaluate these models. This tutorial presents some of those methods stressing the advantages and limitations of the tests rather than the formal definitions. To make the evaluation methods more understandable, some of the risk factors for CHD models are introduced. The interpretation of the evaluation depends critically on the goals of the modeling effort. The subset of evaluation methods presented includes investigations of the epidemiological, mathematical and statistical aspects of the models.