Avian botulism--another perspective.

Abstract

Waterfowl botulism is unique among intoxications because toxin produced within its victims leads to secondary poisoning of other birds. Because of this phenomenon, the epizootiology of the carcass-maggot cycle of botulism resembles that of an infectious disease and the reproductive rate (R) of the disease could be defined as the average number of secondary intoxications attributable to a single carcass introduced into a marsh. I propose that toxin production and botulism occur commonly at a low level in many marshes and that factors which influence R determine when the disease expands into a large epizootic. A model that incorporates the number of carcasses occurring in a marsh, the probability of a carcass containing spores, the probability of a carcass persisting until toxin-bearing maggots emerge, and the contact rate between live birds and toxin, may be useful for predicting the extent of secondary poisoning, for identifying questions for research, and as a theoretical basis for management.